Analysis: Is IPTV finally the key to convergence?

By Scott M. Fulton, III | Published January 12, 2009, 1:01 PM

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Will bigger choices lead to better television?

Banner: Analysis

Setting aside for the duration the whole valid counter-argument about life being a little something more than an experience: Before media technologies can truly converge the way highly paid people have been predicting for well over three decades, the content production industry that sustains them must evolve -- and frankly, it's not keeping pace. The type of business model erosion that we've already seen impacting the music industry is taking more time to affect video, but it's happening. The mass media business model is based upon the principle of controlling the schedule and flow of programming, so that consumers watch shows and movies in the selected venues in which they're available, during the predetermined windows in which they're made available. What we used to call reruns, the industry perceives as repurposing.

Pure choice, by contrast, presumes that the consumer is more in control not only of scheduling and of availability, but of quality. In the end, why watch ordinary television if good television is available? And if all good television that was ever produced can be made available through a single menu selection at any time, producers could no longer afford to make bad television -- or rather, the diluted content that gets passed off as good television, but whose principal purpose is to provide a substructure upon which to plant commercials.

Every milestone in the evolution of consumer media, from the VCR to TiVo, has proven that if consumers can bypass the way mass media is spoon-fed to them, they will. Consumers not only prefer choice, but on their own terms, not with artificial prerequisites imposed upon them. And conceivably, if the incoming administration and the likely change of leadership in the FCC chooses to leave the current state of government regulation as it is now, consumers and CE manufacturers could make their own way to enable true choice, in an ironic reunion of the state of affairs of the early 1950s, when RCA/NBC, DuMont, and Columbia/CBS produced their own TV sets that highlighted their own respective networks.

"It's only a matter of time," stated Carmi Levy, "before this open ecosystem -- whose business model has more to do with standards-compliant PCs on an open Internet than anything else -- comes to televised content. The cable and satellite companies know that we're in this transitional period, and they're doing everything in their power to hold onto their hegemony for a little while longer. While they can force -- and indeed are forcing -- consumers to plug in redundant STBs, they know the clock is ticking on this closed model. Ultimately, they'll fail as open standards wash over their landscape and force them to either evolve or die."

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I've been saying for a while TV the way we know it is going to change, I'm not sure when 5-10 years maybe more (depending on technology, government and other factors). I believe channels will stay because each channel is owned by a company that puts on the specific program but I think instead of having to tune in at a specific time to watch a specific show you'll just go to the channel and pick the show you want to watch. CSI will still be available on Thrusday (maybe even at 9pm), BUT you won't have to tune in to watch at 9pm and you won't have to record it, it will just be there to watch like on-demand. I see this happening for a few reasons.

1. It will make it easier to track how many people watch a program. Instead of our regular rating system that just shows how many people watch a show at a specific time and doesn't put into thought how many people are recording the show, or downloading it or streaming it.

2. I'll basically stop people from P2Ping a show from bittorrent. The show will be available at any time so people can just watch it from their TV.

3. It'll stop the need for DVR's. Since the show is streamed at all times their will be no need to record the show. Since their won't be DVR's people won't be able to skip commercials. Sure some one may come out with a program that will record the show so you can skip commercials, but the average person won't know about it so it'll lessen commercial skip.

4. You'll be able to watch a whole season of show at one time. I think they'll still sell seasons after the next season starts like they do now. So after a season of say CSI is over they'll make it unavailable to stream (or you'll have to pay to watch episodes), or you can buy the season on DVD.

To me this makes sense. I think TV watching is down because people don't want to have to be tethered to the set at a specific time so they record the show and watch it later. Shows like Family Guy and Futureama were taken off the air only to be brought back because the rating system doesn't work with the new way media is watched. We have to many ways to watch a show and no way to accurately show how many people actually watch it. Shows are getting canceled all the time, because of this. I'm not saying set-top boxes are going to go away I think they'll still be around simply because companies will still want to charge for specific channels. Maybe with the new IP standard they can just block channels from specific IP addresses and just give every TV, (phones and computers basically already have their own IP addresses) its own IP. If this can be done then maybe set-top boxes will also vanish. The media needs a change now the question is how long will that change take?

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