Analyst: Blu-ray prices will nosedive for the holidays
By Jacqueline Emigh | Published November 7, 2008, 2:11 PM
Blu-ray vendors will be forced to drop their prices so as to compete with standard DVD, unless they adopt differentiators such as Netflix movie downloads, new research suggests.
Holiday prices for Blu-ray drives could fall further into the $150-to-200 range, especially with new download alternatives available from Microsoft's Xbox 360 and the Roku Netflix player, according to a new report from ABI Research.
"Blu-ray vendors and dealers are starting to realize that for Blu-ray to become the next DVD, they need to lower player prices in order to generate interest and build volumes," said Steve Wilson, principal analyst at ABI, in a statement this week.
Wilson pointed out that tier-2 players and earlier models six to nine months old are already widely available for below $200, and that Amazon is selling a Samsung Blu-ray drive bundled with four disks in the same price range.
However, content download capabilities represent an opportunity as well as a threat for Blu-ray vendors, the analyst noted. LG announced in August that its BD 300 drive will support streaming video content from Netflix. Samsung has completed a similar deal with Netflix.
"The more the Blu-ray players adopt these download capabilities, the better they will be able to differentiate themselves from standard DVD players," according to the ABI analyst.
As previously reported in BetaNews, unit sales for Blu-ray drives look likely to be lower than expected for 2008, too. Kurt Scherf, principal analyst at Parks Associates, told BetaNews in late October that total sales for the year will decline at least 25% from the firm's original projections to about 2.2 million players in the US and 4.3 million worldwide.
$150 for a no-name POS Blu-ray player is still grossly over-priced.
So is $175 for an old dead Samsung 1400 or Sopny S300 model and $200 for a slightly less buggy & slow Samsung 1500 or Sony S350.
Blu-ray is the new Laserdisc, a high margin niche product with (as the Samsung guy recently said) probably only about 5 more years left in it.
That's great if you can accept that and deal with it.
It's just lying to people pretending that Blu-ray is 'the next DVD'.
There can't be a 'next DVD', the market is already heavily broken up between VOD, DVRs, digital downloading and streaming.
The truth is that most HD TVs out there are still, by a huge margin, 32" - 42" 720p sets.
The idea that Blu-ray looks as huge a leap over upscaled DVD on that kind of TV set, as some clearly seem to need to believe it to be, is frankly just laughable.
A lot of HD movies are a disappointment, between poor transfers and so-so production values a lot of people who thought they were getting something amazing have seen a big let-down.
Cars on a 62" Plasma in the shop looked so different on the 37" 720p LCD they took home.
Can you say suckered?
It's a lot of money for something that needs a huge 50"+ HD TV and an expensive set of high quality audio kit (including very decent speakers, it's not just about a cheapo POS $400 Sony receiver that lights up little signs like 'Dolby True HD') to make the most of.
The bit I find hilarious though are the game console kids who imagine their 22" monitor and $200 5.1 'system' hooked up to their PS3 is so 'awesome'.
HTF do you guys know?
Talk about deluded kiddies.
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Some people are saying that blu-ray is already dead. I have not gone High Def with dvd's yet because 1080p just is not a big enough leap of quality. If they came out with 1440p or around there, then and only then would I go really high def. I like my regular dvd's, they look good on my 720p tv even though they are 480p.
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my personal experience was that I didn't felt much when I jumped from 720p to 1080p.
Moving to Blu-ray.
Not much difference at all.
Then, I went back to watch some DVDs,
I start noticing how bad DVD quality is.
It's kinda really strange.
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Then you are blind if you can't see the huge difference between a DVD and BD H.264 1080p
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Either blind or not using a large (50inch and over) 1080p capable TV....
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Only a FRACTION of the market has an HDMI capable 1080p set anyway!
And the single leading factor that has driven HT developement, has not been the TV resolution, but the AUDIO.
Is the resolution better? Sure.
Is it a compelling reason to be able to see if a football player shaved or has acne? No. So the 'vast' improvement in resolution - except for programs such as those about nature - really don't matter.
As the market has already voted - neither do most people. So you can debate it all you like - until Obama tries to social engineer this as well, most don't care.
Its simply not a critical or limiting feature!
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wynner, you must have some really good vision or sit 6" from the TV. 1080p is by far worth the jump. i bet you can not tell the difference between the two if you are sitting 10' or more from a 50" TV. if you have 100" screen you may see a difference.
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"LG announced in August that its BD 300 drive will support steaming video content from Netflix."
Freudian slip? LOL
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if they add streaming video from the net, doesn't that defeat the purpose of a Blu-Ray player? If you want streaming, just buy an Apple TV and skip the blu-ray disks altogether.
Whoever at Sony came up with Blu-ray should be fired. Talk about a confused product.
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"If you want streaming, just buy an Apple TV"
Nah, wouldn't do that. Didn't another guy tricked into purchasing Apple just whine on this site that Netflix streaming isn't supported on their last gen hardware? Same will happen again and again and again. Get a PC and do what you want - unless you need someone to tell you what to do of course.
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No BR for me. I'm not chasing proprietary formats with cash only to watch them go obsolete in less than five years. Money is better spent on quality hardware upgrades than that little game.
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A Sony KV-34XBR910 and an Oppo DV-980H with an HDMI-DVI adapter. I sit approximately 8 feet away from the screen. Until I make up my mind on my next HDMI-capable receiver, audio is passed via the 5.1 analog outputs.
Until Oppo releases their true universal BDP-83 player, I have zero incentive to invest in Blu-ray.
Besides, with new DVD releases in most major retail outlets hovering in the $20-25 range, I have little reason to believe that the cost of Blu-ray releases will lower in price anytime soon.
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Every new release on BD here costs $10 more than the same release on DVD. Some will argue that you have to pay extra for the higher video quality, but come on, $10?! Paying $25 for a new DVD release is high enough already, no wonder most people don't want to pay $35 for the same thing on BD.
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35 for a brd? I don't know where you live but I can pay 15-25 dollars (25 for a new release) for my blu-ray discs. Sounds like FUD
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35 for a brd? I don't know where you live but I pay 50-70 dollars (5000-7000JPY) for my blu-ray release discs...
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Looking at Best Buy and Walmart here in southwest Michigan (United States)
*Average* DVD prices here are $15-25US.
*Average* BD prices here where I live are $25-40US.
That seems to be about $10US difference using the math I learned as a child, and it is the reason I am not currently interested in adopting the Bluray for movies.
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I don't know where you live but I pay around 4000JPY (after 10% points) for my blu ray releases... been to bic camera lately?
http://www.biccamera.com...GE=1&NOW_CACHE_NO=1
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No wonder Michigan is having such problems! Maybe more need to become Consumer Reports shoppers and compare prices! ;-)
Especially when the average DVD prices at WalMart are from $5-$13, with only the new releases at $18-19! And these quickly drop to $13 after a few months of release!
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Why does everyone look at this format as a movie player? A lot of data can be stored when its used with a computer. 30-50gb disks are nothing to shake a stick at.
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Backing data up to an additional removeable or static hard drive is still MUCH cheaper and easier and less time consuming.
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Because we tired of Sony dead-end formats a decade ago?
And I will never touch a sony product again. Putting malware on their media does that.
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Maybe we are in a data recession?
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I am using Blu-ray as backups, but, the thing is that 1TB harddrives got so cheap, and blank BR-discs haven't dropped much in price, putting the cost efficiency at HDD >> Blu-ray.
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Its just like everyone else points out, hard disk storage is just better value/faster etc.... When DVD burner hit the market it was great, a couple of discs and you could backup your entire hard disk.... these days it would take 20 50GB discs to back a 1TB drive.... 20 50GB discs cost more than a 1TB drive... until some breakthrough is made (holographic discs??) the new media are hard disks...
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Life sure is simple for you, isn't it? Drop it.
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And it only took them two years to figure this out? Frickin' geniuses, they would have never won the war if not for such deep pockets.
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no plans to ever get a blu ray drive.
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Ditto
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ditto
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I said that as well, but behind my statement herein lies the true meaning:
"no plans to get a blu ray drive---until GOOD players are sub $100 and media sells at retail $15-$20"---.
There's just no value in them for the casual viewer at the moment. If what the analysts are saying is true, then maybe, just maybe I'll buy one.
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Any video streamed from Netflix to Roku or the LG Blu-ray players displays at near standard DVD quality. Why would anyone with an HDTV want to bother with movies below that of a standard DVD? Now, the idea of Netflix HD in the xBox might catch on. I think all manufacturers should do a better job at informing consumers about video quality in the format they're interested in. I would be ticked off if I setup Netflix on my HDTV and go a grainy picture.
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The reason why they need to support this is because the POS3 doesn't compete with the 360 for availablity of content. If MS didn't offer this over live this really wouldn't be an issue. This is more of a last ditch effort by them.. let say the same last ditch effort Sony had with teh POS3 in marketing it as a Bloray player rather than a game console.
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While I certainly can't speak for anyone else, lowering player prices is not going to sell this technology to me.
The price per BD movie is why I am not interested.
Sorry Sony... no sale.
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I just paid 3 dollars more for the 2 disc blu ray movie of "I am legend" as compared to the standard DVD price. Yep, real big price difference. You can find cheap blu-ray movies if you want to look. Heck, even walmart is getting reasonably priced.
Sorry, this argument doesn't fly anymore. To me, an extra 3 bucks per movie is worth it.
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"You can find cheap blu-ray movies if you want to look."
Well that's the problem isn't it? I don't want to look...I want to watch a movie, and I don't want to shop around for a "reasonable" price for it from store to store. Why would I...when I could just stream something in HD from netflix which, while not as good as a BR movie in quality, is pretty damn good and good enough for me and most people....and it's free with the $9/month netflix membership...seems like a no brainer.
Sorry, this argument absolutely still flies. To me, sitting on the couch, browsing for the movie I like, clicking go and starting to watch it by the time the popcorn is done microwaving is worth it.
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And I'm sure that you're the same person who paid $16 for CD's while cassettes were selling for $8, though the CD's were cheaper to make.
Personally, I just hate getting ripped off. It's all about value, not just price.
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Speaking of arguments that don't fly... what's with 2-disc Blu-ray releases? I thought there was plenty of capacity on one disc. ;)
Sounds to me like an awful lot of space is wasted on PCM. If the lossless Dolby TrueHD and DTS-HD MA tracks are decompressed and decoded to PCM anyway (to receivers incapable of decoding the raw bitstream), why have incredibly space-wasting uncompressed PCM tracks in the first place? What's more, if they simply did away with the unnecessary PCM tracks in the first place, they would have much more space to work with in providing true high-resolution (96kHz / 24-bit) multi-channel audio instead of the mediocre DVD-quality 48kHz / 16-bit audio that most releases still contain.
HD is the whole package... not just video.
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"To me, an extra 3 bucks per movie is worth it."
Unfortunately it doesn't matter what it is worth to you. It matters what the majority thinks. Also $3 a movie adds up if you buy a lot of movies. One thing that you are leaving out though is that $3 is the absolute minimum that it will be over DVD. In most cases it is higher than $3 over.
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"Sorry, this argument doesn't fly anymore. To me, an extra 3 bucks per movie is worth it."
Pointing out isolated sale offers doesn't make those prices the norm.
I have successfully run a household for over 3 decades and I doubt seriously that I need you to tell me what is worth my extra $3 and what isn't.
I was making NO argument... I was STATING what I felt about the current pricing of Bluray media as pertaining to ME.
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Isolated sales offers? I can get the same on around 60-70% of new releases on blu-ray at my local walmart or best buy.
3 decades huh? Just had to throw that in there. Where in my statement did I say that the 3 bucks per movie is worth it to you or imply such a statement? You even quoted me yourself as saying "To me".
Calm down and go sit back down in the "household" in your moms basement.
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I own over 750 DVD's, no burned copies, legit copies and 50 BRD's. The 3$ I spend on the discs worth buying on BRD is a very small price.
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And you enjoy your pixelated movie which will cut out if your internet dies. I am sorry but streaming content looks absolutely horrible from netflix on an HD TV over 32 inches. I know this because I subscribe to netflix. Also, when I say shopping around, I dont go comparing prices. I usually go to walmart.com or amazon.com depending on what else I am ordering at the time. No shopping needed. Just search for the name, add to cart, and buy. Wow, that was hard wasn't it.
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Most 2 disc releases contain a digital version, oh wait you would have known that had you looked. Sounds like you just wanted to attack. Good for you! You succeeded.
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Actually, I never bought a cassette, sorry. And yes, I did buy CD's because the quality AND conveinience of a CD far outweighs the burden and cost involved in owning/operating a cassette. Nice try at a comparison however. 2 points for effort
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Thank you for the personal attack.
And, YES, over 3 decades... I am also a grandfather.
Nobody lives in MY basement, except the mice.
Take a little spin through these 2 websites and see that the Bluray prices are indeed around $10 on average higher than DVD releases.
These are the retail outlets closest to where I live and do my shopping.
http://www.bestbuy.com/s...+skuid&usc=cat02015
http://www.walmart.com/c.../catalog.gsp?cat=530722
Now, I am done arguing.
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Netflix hasn't offered HD streaming until very recently...it did look pixelated before, not anymore, I know because I've seen it on my friends BD player.
And...in the 2 years I've had FIOS my internet connection has never died out...yea that's a real concern...if you have dialup!
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Well for those of us who DO NOT have a choice on broadband provider, as I am stuck with comcast, it does suck. The service on most military posts drops out quite often and is quite unreliable. Yes, Dial-up are the only people who have to worry. Good call. I am glad you have a choice, but being in the service doesn't leave me much of a choice.
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If you say so...I have plenty of friends that use either cablevision and comcast and they hardly ever have any problems with their connection...yea it might be slow sometimes, but it almost never completely cuts out. I guess if your internet connection cuts out once in a while and it makes you anxious that that one time you won't be able to watch a movie for a few minutes, it warrants spending hundreds for a BD player and hundreds more on movie disks....
Fortunately, the market has proved that you are in the minority, and most people don't see BD as a worthwhile investment. There will always be that nitch I guess, enjoy.
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3 bucks of Fanboi retainment money well spent...
Wait for a BOGO offer; I am sure there is one coming the holidays are nearly here and they Sony and the Bloray consortium will need to fudge the numbers.
Point is not everyone is will to spend the xtra money today. Myself I bought IronMan on Blodisk am I impressed? NO I am not; it was severly lacking additional features HDDVD supported. For example if you ever watched Borne Identity on HD the U control element and the dossier gave an intimate element to the movie.
Sorry, this argument doesn't fly anymore. To me, an extra 3 bucks per movie is worth it. "
The argument will still fly for normal joes like myself and Owilliams.
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Should have saved the 3 bucks and spent it on your Connection then.
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Obviously Netflix feels they can stream that content in a decent resolution. As they have partnered up with Microsoft there is obviously viability in this product and therefore Sony Fanbois like yourself can continue to spend the 3 extra bucks on bloray content ill spend my money on streaming.
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Bottomline, BR disks are still typically $10-$15 more on average than standard DVDs which are readily available for $5-$13!
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Actually, he has a valid point.
Spiderman 3, a fairly high profile release, was on 2 discs. The 50gb 'main feature' disc was clogged with so many audio tracks that a second disc was required for special features.
The secondary disc for digital copies is, to the best of my knowledge, a fairly new add-on. Don't get me wrong, it's still a welcome one.
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So.. wait 8 months ago when the format war ended and the dust settled and the prices went up because of "manufacturing costs" where are these concerns now??? why were these concerns during the war??.
I dont believe that streaming is the only cause for this.. are they finally understanding what the "consumers" have been telling them all along.. YOUR PRICES ARE TOO HIGH.
I hope the well has dried up for them!
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too little too late, bye bye Bluray
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Blu-ray.
Yet another in the long line of dead Sony flagship "standards".
Next...
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A Real Analyst :
Blu-ray prices will nosedive for the holidays
Blu-ray will nosedive forever.
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hehe
nosedive forever.. the death of this format can only come too late. Die already sony
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Blu-Ray movies on a 1080p tv look fantastic. Netflix streaming video on a 1080p look as bad as an old VHS. Would rather Blu-Ray movies be cheaper as the visuals are much better than downloads from NetFlix.
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"Netflix streaming video on a 1080p look as bad as an old VHS."
They used to, until they started streaming in HD.
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Actually, it still looks horrible. Its about VCD quality, maybe SVCD with MPEG2 encoding. Yes, I am a subscriber and I can confirm this as I just streamed one to my TV prior to posting this.
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Nosedive? So they drop $50-$75...
They still face the same obstacle: a commodity market with upscaling DVD players and recorderds available for far less than $100, and consumables routinely available from between $5-$13.
Until the price of entry is well below $150 and the price of consumables is commensurate with the curent DVD offerings, there will be little movement - just as the revised sales projections a month ago indicated.
And with the economic situation at hand, it is going to add just one more hurdle to overcome in a prohibitive cost of entry and a substantially prohibitive ongoing price for consumables.
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It's not so much the price of the Blu-ray player. It's the price for Blu-ray movies. Paying more than 30 bucks for a Blu-ray movie is pretty rough. They need to get the price to $20.00 or lower in my opinion.
I think people are willing to put some serious money down on a good player.
I'm not sure how good content download capabilities are going to be. It sounds like a cool feature, but pretty useless, kinda like the PS3's backwards compatability. How many people (overall) actually play there old PS1 and PS2 games.
I guess if they offered more deleted scenes or different languages it could be worth it.
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"How many people (overall) actually play there old PS1 and PS2 games."
Me.
But then I'm also emulating Amiga and Spectrum games.
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If I'm not mistaken, PS2 STILL outsells PS3!
Sorta puts a crimp into an arguement for upgrading.
Unfortunately, greater shadow resolution and seeing if monsters have acne or not is not really a compelling reason to buy nor a truly significant contribution to overall game strategy and planning. ;-)
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wait their monstors have acne now????
Oh damn i better buy some of there games..... .. .. wait not that good anyways and the decent ones are multi format.
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"I think people are willing to put some serious money down on a good player."
Not really. The techie people...sure in a heart beat. But miss soccer mom is going to look at those high priced players and move right on down to the upscaling DVD players. The price of movies and players both is absolutely killing Blu-Ray right now and they don't seem to be doing much about it.
One of the big hurdles that they simply can not overcome is the fact that there are so many SD sets still out there. Unless Blu-Ray becomes cheaper than DVD those people aren't even going to look at it.
Mark my words...Blu-Ray will die before it fully replaces DVD. It is not going to be like VHS --> DVD.
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I dont think you are mistaken. PS2 still outsells PS3. But how does that help bluray? If people are still watching and buying dvds, does that mean that dvds will still outsell bluray in 4 years?
Is bluray2 going to be compatible with bluray players? Or is the emotion engine going to be phased out with the newer models?
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"But then I'm also emulating Amiga and Spectrum games."
Ahh... yet another emulation fan. ;)
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bloray2 ????
Is that like Minidisk?
Please don't give them any bad ideas
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