RSSAnalyst: Less Than 200k PS3s for US
By Ed Oswald | Published November 15, 2006, 12:01 PM
At least one analyst has publicly stated that Sony is nowhere near its earlier stated goal of 400,000 PS3 units for the U.S. launch, raising the possibility that it may be very difficult to locate an available console when it arrives on Friday.
Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian said those who did not preorder the PS3 might not be able to locate an available system. "We expect Sony to deliver 150-200k units to stores in the United States for the launch," he wrote in a note to clients.
Add this to news from GameStop and EB Games earlier in the week that they would be unable to fulfill the amount of pre-orders they took, and it adds up to a lot of unhappy gamers come Friday morning.
"We are beginning to notify our customers that our initial shipment of PS3 systems will not be what we expected," a company representative told gaming news site GameSpot. "As this is not an ideal situation, we are asking employees to wait to purchase systems until the second shipment. We are anticipating having systems to cover reservations before Christmas."
News reports also indicate that companies such as Best Buy are apparently taking advantage of the shortages by offering those waiting in line a special deal on the Xbox 360. While a leaked internal document has confirmed such an arrangement, Best Buy has publicly denied its existence.
Such meager numbers for the U.S. launch also hurt the PS3s total sales domestically. Sebastian said his firm now only expects about 750,000 consoles to ship by the end of the year. He painted a much different picture for the Wii, however.
"We expect a more robust launch from Nintendo, with at least 1.2 million units sold in the US and up to four million units shipped worldwide by year end," Sebastian wrote.
In any case, he said that console sales would not necessarily equate to significantly increased software sales until the new consoles reach "critical mass" sometime early next year.
Did you guys see the story about a Wal-Mart store where they couldn't figure out who was in what order in line so they put out ten chairs and let everyone kill each other trying to get one.
One guy went into a pole face first and is in the hospital.
There were over 1000 people in line at a Sony Style store where they promised the first 750 people in line would get a console. Then people started to go crazy so they said everyone in line would get one. A few thousand people rushed to get in line after hearing the news.
You will see that story on the news today.
Great launch Sony!
p.s. I got mine. It's the size of a refrigerator.
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|Yey, glad to hear someone un-biased got one. Now leave it on for 24 Hrs straight and let me know if it hasn't caught on fire. :-D
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|Build IT and they will come.Don't ship them all
and they will want it more??????????????
150k-200k this is sony do'ing what they Know makeing them want it even more!!!
We ROCK and sony just may not???????
Keep GEEK'IN IT TILL "MHz" keep your fingers on the mouse.
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|Where the positive spin, Gillespie?
I just turned on CNN and they said the same thing the story above said, the Best Buy employees are preparing all the people in line for the bad news. I guess there are only a few per Best Buy store.
When I went by earlier, the tents were already wrapped around the building. I think I will go at 10:00 when they open to see the riots.
This is turning out to be a great holiday season already!!!!
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|BWAAAAAHAHAHAAAAA!!!!!!!
I missed this story until just now!
Poor Mark and Dave.
Actually,this probably means I'll get shafted on my pre-order. I'll keep you posted tomorrow (today) when I find out for sure.
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|http://playb3yond.com/
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|Dave,
That link doesnt work, the site locks up and doesn't load, kind of like the PS3's I've heard about.
I guess the demo's for the stores are all having problems.
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|Yea, $499 - $599 is a bit pricey, but compare it to the XBOX 360. With the 360 you pay:
+ $399 for the Console.
+ $99 for the OPTIONAL Hard Drive (Included on BOT PS3 Models).
+ $200 for the OPTIONAL HD-DVD Drive (Blu-Ray Standard on bot PS3 Models).
Also note: Blu-Ray players right (Sony, Samsung and Panasonic) now alone are close to $1000.
There alone for the 360 you are close to $700 and you don't have a game yet.
PS3 does currently have some Backward Compatibility issue (3%) but you can have that with 50% of software you buy for your PC that ran you $1000. Our friends at MS have recently announced that they have more or less given up on furthering their bankcards compatibility.
Bottom line, do not look at the PS3 as simply a "Game Console". Their aim is to have a 10 year life span on it and it will be your Media Center. When I got my PSP (Playstation Portable) it did really nothing but play games. Now a year later, it plays games, connects to the web, plays Music and video's.
I do plan on buying a PS3. I may not get it day one, but I will look to get it in the near future.
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|the 399 360 comes with a hd. and there are more hddvd movies on the market than bd(titles and volume of discs sold). Here is the thing about the xbox360 down the road its upgradeable. If bd wins the format war you can see a separate bd player. But if hddvd wins the war you have a betmax player built into your gaming console built in. Off the bat you dont have to choose sides with either format. And in 1-2 years when the format war is resolved you can use whichever wins. But ill add a ps3 to go along with my xbox360 and hddvd that i have now hopefully sooner rather than later due to short supply. Its funny though you do see the people who are homers one way or the other who are defending the ps3's short supply who slammed the 360 about supply that released with more consoles. A bit of hypocricy there. Both are good.. to get gow and h3 you need the 360 and to get gt4 u need the ps3. Neither one will be a refrence hddvd or bd player anyway. The ps2 was a crappy dvd player as was the xbox. Neither ps3 or xbox360 will support losless dolby digital so on audio they both are already lacking. I know im rambling but it gets old seeing the bickering from homers. Both are good and bad in their own ways. Neither is close to perfect. One extra hurdle that the 360 never had to face was a new compeiting console that was being released at the same time and 1/2 the price which will be available in quantity at release for parents to actualy get under the tree for xmas. let the homerisms resume.
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|I expect my Media Centre to be recording and playing back up to 4 HDTV signals - suppose the PS3 can do that too?
It's not a HTPC. Maybe next gen will be, but this is not.
And what crack are you smoking about PCs having backward compatibility issues? I can't think of any game that's not compatible with a modern PC, no matter how old it is. Hell, PCs are even backward compatible with all the console games too, if you download an emulator. :P
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|So you have never had to download a video driver to play the latest game?
How is this different to having to issue a system update to improve the 3% backwards compatability issues? The answer is, there is no difference..
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|If you are just interested in gaming you don't have to buy the HD-DVD drive. It's a great deal though since it also works on PCs, but it's not at all required for gaming.
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|Sony marketed the PS3 as being fully backwards compatible from the start, nothing about having to install updates. Also you are assuming that these updates will fix the problems. Sony's word does not mean much anymore.
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|399 includes the Hard Drive K THANKS!!!
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|"Bottom line, do not look at the PS3 as simply a "Game Console". Their aim is to have a 10 year life span on it and it will be your Media Center. When I got my PSP (Playstation Portable) it did really nothing but play games. Now a year later, it plays games, connects to the web, plays Music and video's."
10 Year life span? We'll see about that.
And you realize the 360 is already a media center?
And if you look at just 360 and HD-DVD add on, yes, its comparable to PS3. The main difference though is that if you want it for gaming, you can get it for gaming today. And if you want movies later, you can get the add on later. With PS3, you have no choice. Its either all or nothing.
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|True, I just wish it also worked as a burner.
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|More sad news for future PS3 owners.
Those of you who have old HDTV sets that do not support 720p and only support 1080i will be saddend by the fact that currently the PS3 will not upscale the 720p image from games to 1080i(Something that the Xbox360 does) instead it will down scale it to 480p. This according to tests done by IGN using multiple of the launch titles.
Its beyond me how this got past Sony, and one can only hope that they issue a firmware update to solve this issue(If infact its possible).
So umm, were is the TRUE HD gaming they were talking about?
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|(Waiting for Marks reply)
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|Where I live, there is no such beast.
If you set has the HDReady logo, it will do 720P, it also must have HDMI.
The fact some people in the US were misold HD sets, is urelated.
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|I work in the ce industry and am not familliar with this hdready logo in the us. There is hdtv that includes a atsc turner(the over the air high def tuner as opposed to the ntsc tuner which weve had for 50+ years) and monitor that does lacks the atsc tuner. But brands like err sony/mitsubishi/samsung/sharp dont use that label the since hdtv is more than 1 type tv broadcast standard. Also the 720p is new in the last few years as with dlp. Untill about 3-4 years ago hdtv's were made the bulk of them were 1080i(plasma, projection and crt).
So what you are saying is that the early adopters who bought 1080i hdtv's for 10 years didnt buy hdtv's? Even though by techinal design and display standards it is hdtv. you truly are a dumba** since hdtv is considered 720p OR 1080i at minimum standards. Other than that you have edtv which is 480p. 720p is nothing more than 1/2 of the 2 standards that are accepted as hdtv. You continue to spour random baseless facts due to some logo that they put on a tv which means nothing if it is hdtv or it is not. I dont read these forum often but when i see your posts you usualy have worthless facts you try to prop up as meaningful.
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|You'll be waiting a long time. He just likes to spout BS and then run away like a coward.
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|(There it is.)
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|Nice spin. fanboy.
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|Even if this rumor comes up true (which i doubt) every week there will be more and more consoles available so there wont be major shortages. I mean this will just make it sell 100% from every store faster than predicted :)
Take it from the optimistic side of the things :)
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|Xbox360 only had just over 300,000 for launch.
So if you split the difference between what Sony estimate (400,000) and what this guys thinks (200,000), then you are in the same ballpark as the Xbox360 launch...
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|You always take the optimistic view when it comes to Sony, DaveBG. :P
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|And if you fudge the numbers a little more the Sony PS3 is like, zomg, SOOOOO much better value than the Xbox360 too!!!!!1111!one!oen!
Right Mark? ;P
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|Lets DO A LITTLE MATH!!!!!
First the stats.
PS3 Production began Mid July(lets say the 15th give or take a few days)
PS3 Promised at launch 500k (400k US, 100k Japan)
PS3 Actually Recieved in Japan 88400 units
PS3 Rumored Shortage numbers in the US 200k(rumored less)
Ok now to the math, lets see just how many consoles are being made daily if we take all these numbers by face value.
First the Sony supplied Numbers
500k consoles made in the span of roughly 5months, thats 120 days give or take a few days of production.
Number of consoles made daily on a 7day a week schedule = 4166 consoles
Consoles made per week(7day s***) = 29162 consoles
Acording to these numbers sony should be able to supply 29162 consoles per week. given the 1 to 4 ratio between US and Japan, it would be 5832 consoles for Japan and 23329 for the US.
Ok now lets go to the real numbers in japan and the Rumored shortage numbers in the US.
200k consoles for the US 88400 consoles for Japan.
thats 288400 consoles made in the span of 120days give or take a few days.
PS3 per day = 2403
PS3 per Week = 16821
So with these numbers it means that going by the 1 to 4 ratio Sony would be able to ship weekly to japan 3364 consoles and 13456 consoles to the US.. hardly good numbers.
So with these numbers in mind can they reach the 2million console mark by years end? According to the numbers it is far from likely. If the 200k figure for the US is actually true and their production is in this kind of shape it would mean they would have to quadruple their daily production to meet these lofty goals.
Offcourse, these are all theoretical numbers, once Friday comes along and we get a good sense of the total number of consoles shiped, and then next week with the 2nd batch we will truly know were Sony stands as far as production capacity.
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|LOL!
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|http://www.isuppli.com/news/default.asp?id=6919
“With the PlayStation 3, you are getting the performance of a supercomputer at the price of an entry-level PC,” said Andrew Rassweiler, teardown services manager and senior analyst for iSuppli. "
The PlayStation 3 exhibits a very advanced design in general.
“To give an example of how cutting-edge the design is, in the entire history of the iSuppli Teardown Analysis team, we have seen only three semiconductors with 1,200 or more pins. The PlayStation 3 has three such semiconductors all by itself,” Rassweiler noted. “There is nothing cheap about the PlayStation 3 design. This is not an adapted PC design. Even beyond the major chips in the PlayStation 3, the other components seem to also be expensive and somewhat exotic.”
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|Its ok MArky , PS3 is not being rush. Sony prides itslef on releasing quality products!!
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|SO where do I get one? To give back Sony some profit.
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|Nice spin. You are pathetic.
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|hehe.. 500 units available for Taiwan at launch..
YES 500 as in FIVE HUNDRED.
Now that sir is sad.
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|Why do you live in Taiwan? Do you know demand in Taiwan? Do you know percentage of the population able to afford a PS3 in Taiwan?
I suspect all the answers are no, so STFU..
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|WAAHHHH
I guess i hit a tender spot eh? Can't find ways to defend the Might PS3?
So your saying that in a country which sports one of the LARGEST gaming communities in all of Asia, 500 PS3s is more than enough to meet demand? Taiwan is like the hub of all that is Online gaming. (Cough Taiwan is one of the WoW Cash cows)
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|I'd invite you, sir Troll, to STFU, actually. :P
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|I heard Canada only got one PS3 for the entire country. At least that's the word on the street.
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|i doubt it it will see much even if there is enough supply. only true fans will buy it from day 1. 500 to 600 a pop is way too much console. not to mention it will cost a lot more on ebay.
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|For you perhaps, but for many people, this is the future of home entertainment, a media hub, games console, PSP connectivity, HD movie player..
$500 or even $600 model is a serious bargain..
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|LOL..
"this is the future of home entertainment"
For those of us with a 360, its the past!
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|Not from what I have seen, the Xbox360 it's just a games console.. Even Microsoft knew this, hence the rushed out HD-DVD option, once they saw where Sony were going with the PS3.
The PS3 has so much more to offer..
As a side note, I noticed it's always the same names who start the P1ssing contests here. Can't they accept that people may not like the Xbox360, and may actually prefer the PS3? It seems not..
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|It seems the PS3 is the best HD player out there, better than the $900 Samsung BD-1, better than the HS-A1 Toshiba.
http://www.avsforum.com/...4&&#post8876504
PS3 - 14 seconds load times.
Toshiba HD-A1 - 120 Seconds load times.
Whisper quiet, moderate heat generation..
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|You would trust a random person on that forum posted about pre-release hardware when he can't even spell?
"It's on the Internet, it must be true."
:P
EDIT: and if you ACTUALLY READ the damn post, he said the quality of the PS3 wasn't as good as the Pioneer, in his opinion. Get the facts, or get out.
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|Can't see it replacing HTPCs. It's not in the same league.
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|Yeah even Microsoft knew this, wait, except this statement isn't true and in reality Microsoft didn't want to force their customers into taking sides early into a format war ala Sony.
Slander!
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|You tell him. I can see the PS3 spinners came out of the wood work today.
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|Not too many comments and this has been up for awhile. I guess everyone must be waiting in line. :)
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|Sony is stupid. They should just make the launch a "premium price" launch. Release the console for $1500, get those that are going to pay that amount on Ebay to give THEM the money instead and then when more are available, have a bigger launch a month later with a price drop.
We all know that many of those units will end up on ebay anyway, Sony might as well profit from it.
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|Sounds good, except the $1500 owners will be mad when the price drops %50 in 3 months.
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|so be a sucker and pay out the a$$ on ebay for a PS3 which are selling in excess for $1400+
I guess Japan can't crankout as many PS3 consoles as M$ can with it's slave labor manufacturing facilities in China...
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|PS3 is also being made in China and Taiwan...
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|Of course it is.
Who else is better suited than small under-nourished asian children with tiny fingers who can't even afford the computer electronics they assemble?
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|Yes, we have seen the Awful Truth...
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|Hey now.
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