RSSAnalysts play king-of-the-hill with 3G iPhone sales claims
By Sharon Fisher | Published June 30, 2008, 5:33 PM
Analysts who are normally paid to be skeptical and cynical are falling over themselves to see which one can make the biggest sales predictions for the second-generation 3G iPhone, due to be rolled out July 11 for as low as $199.
With the first models of the iPhone priced at $599 and $699 and selling between 5 and 6 million since its introduction, Apple CEO Steve Jobs' prediction that the company would sell 10 million iPhones in 2008 seemed optimistic - yet that ambitious number is looking increasingly conservative compared with more and more extravagant analyst claims.
- Piper Jaffray predicts 12.9 and 45 million units for 2008 and 2009, respectively.
- Morgan Stanley predicts a doubling of iPhone sales, meaning 10-12 million, in 2008, and more than 27 million in 2009.
- Citigroup predicts 12 million units in the second half of this year and 23 million in 2009.
- RBC Capital predicts more than 5 million in Q3 and 6.5 million in Q4, for a total of 14 million for 2008, then 24 million in 2009. RBC also released the results of a consumer panel survey indicating that 56% of those planning to buy a smartphone in the next 90 days plan to purchase an iPhone, up from 35% in March, and that 27% may buy an iPhone sometime in the future. (The author of that report was unavailable for comment today.)
- Friedman Billings Ramsey semiconductor analyst Craig Berger: 17 million, of which 15 million are 3G iPhones.
- CLSA Emerging Markets' Jenny Lai: 18 million.
- Pacific Crest's Andy Hargreaves: 23 million iPhones by June 2009.
- Needham & Co. tech analyst Charles Wolf: 30 million iPhones in 2009.
The lone Kool-Aid holdout appears to be Charles King, principal analyst at Pund-IT Research, who notes that the $20 a month charge on a two-year service contract adds up to $240, which wipes out most of the savings on the iPhone upfront cost. That makes him dubious that the new iPhone will sell as well as some other analysts are predicting.
it really is incredible the amount of attention the iphone is getting. There are tons of phones out there, especially now that compete directly with the iphone, they even have more features, and cost just as much if not more.
yet people complain, its too expensive or its a scam!
I mean seriously, this happens all the time, yet you don't see people running around crying, Verizon and Sprint both have iphone like devices that cost 199 or more, with plans that are just as expensive. People just don't buy them.
What do they want apple to give the phone away as free with a 39 dollar a month 2 year contract and free unlimited data? Give me a break! Even then though im sure peole would say yeah but it costs 960 dollars over the next 2 years! Scam!
I mean geez people, just don't buy it and stop complaining, nice thing about phones, there are multiple carriers, multiple phones and multiple plans! Unlike other areas your just stuck.
The iphone is pretty neat, and I bet they sell the crap out of the iphone 3g. I am guessing 20-30 million by the end of next year. Now that enterprise is on board, with all that other industry support, its going to compete directly with rim.
Now if they can just disable the music/video abilities to prevent people from watching movies all day instead of working, that might help as well.
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|"The lone Kool-Aid holdout appears to be Charles King, principal analyst at Pund-IT Research, who notes that the $20 a month charge on a two-year service contract adds up to $240, which wipes out most of the savings on the iPhone upfront cost. That makes him dubious that the new iPhone will sell as well as some other analysts are predicting."
Flashing lights Sharon, flashing lights :)
Doesnt matter how unattractive the pricing is there will always be those who are dazzled by sparkling things.
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|"The lone Kool-Aid holdout..."
I like Sharon. ;)
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|Good Lord this may save the economy!
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|I am so proud of Apple. The iPhone 2.0 may even be able to send MMS!!
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|"The iPhone 2.0 may even be able to send MMS!!"
One can only hope!
*holds breath*
Gee, I sure hope nobody else beats them to the punch with that "innovation"!
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|is not an innovation, it's a feature.
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|Someone apparently missed the point I was trying to make...
The previous post was sarcastic in nature.
This "feature" has been a common one among almost every other phone ('smart' or otherwise) for approximately 2 years.
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|Wel, they wont see my name in their "million" count. Apple is not the only one coming out with smart-phone. Nokia, Sony and HTC has already had smart-phones for years. I am holding O2 XDA IIi (Non-3G), Nokia E90 (3G) and dont think I will spend additional Extra to buy extra handset :).
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