RSSHow long can Xbox 360, PlayStation 3 survive on life support?
By Tim Conneally | Published June 9, 2009, 3:44 PM
Your first car is as special as your first love. Whether you purchased it after years of working after-school jobs, or it was a graduation gift from thrilled parents, that otherwise soulless piece of machinery takes on the characteristics of a beloved pet. You name it, we dress it up, you let it become an inextricable part of our personality, and you have trouble letting them go. Even after the thing has become a leaky, noisy, smelly hazard to the health and safety of everyone around it, you still hold onto it for long after it should have been retired.
As we endure the Next Great Recession and are forced to make our possessions last longer, I wonder if the same sort of attachment will apply to home video game consoles.
At the E3 Expo last year, Sony Computer Entertainment America's Jack Tretton said the PlayStation 3 is on a ten-year life cycle; and at this year's event, Microsoft executive Shane Kim said the same of the Xbox 360. Not only will these devices be supported for ten years, they will be the primary video gaming vehicles for Sony and Microsoft for twice as long as most other video game consoles in history.
My peers have fond memories of the Nintendo Entertainment System, but by the time we were all about to enter high school, there were newer and better things to look forward to. By Sony and Microsoft's timelines, a kid who got a PlayStation 3 in the second grade will theoretically have that console until he's a freshman in college. That may not seem like a very long time to an adult who finds himself saying the Berlin Wall was knocked down "not that long ago," but to a kid and computer alike, it's forever.
In the United States, every fifth autumn for the last 24 years has brought the market at least one new major video game console. These releases are preceded by months of concept art, tech demos, and early launch title name-dropping. Following this cycle, the next console-bearing season will come in 2011. The period of time when we'd normally start seeing the first wave of hype for the next-generation consoles is right now. Instead, we've got companies showing off flashy new accoutrements for the current generation.
Rather than debut a brand new car, they're offering improved steering.
By concentrating primarily on new peripherals and software support, gaming companies can save themselves the short-term risk and expense of console development in this unforgiving economic climate. But as a result of this choice, manufacturers are kicking console gaming behind PC gaming -- which continues to advance unencumbered -- by another generation.
Already, EA Europe Senior Vice President Patrick Soderlund has said the Xbox 360 has been "maxed out", and Nintendo game designer Shigeru Miyamoto said the Wii has reached the point where games are getting too demanding for its limited resources.
While the current generation of consoles is indeed the most computer-like, they are still considered "closed box systems" -- that is, their components cannot be upgraded. If these systems are intended to last for ten years, there will have to be some hardware acceleration to keep up with developer and user performance demands.
But we've seen what happens when game companies try to accelerate a closed system with add-ons...You get the 32X CD system, or the video game world's equivalent of adding a huge aftermarket spoiler to a Nissan Sentra.
For consoles to truly make the jump from the sentimental kid's toy to the first car, a degree of openness and upgradeability needs to be planned into their development. As we learned to change our own tires, oil, filters and such to keep our beloved beaters running, so too will kids learn to chain multiple GPUs and optimize the airflow in their video game systems to keep them going for ten years or more.
I don't know. It seemed like I had a 8bNES for an eternity before we bought soemthing new. And then it was the SNES. We tried my buddys SEGA Master system but it just didn't make it.
So it was ATARI 2600 for like 10 years and then NES for another 12 it seemed.
My XB360 and maybe even a PS3 later on seems like they'd only be expanded on now. Kind of like what SEGA did to the Genesis. Just come out with smaller versions and maybe some addons.
DX11 is already shown that it can make developing PC games to their best along side consoles (XB360 anyway) a much easier process all while making the games even better on the 360s older DX9 hardware. So there is plenty of life left.
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|I think it would be nice to have a period of time where the games coming out were developed to the maximum potential of the consoles rather than us paying for games that were poorly developed or not reaching the potential they should.
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|And does this make it any different than any other time? Consoles exist based on technology companies research using PCs.
Thus the end of a console life cycle leads to a rise of PC gaming and vice versa. It has been like this for quite sometime now.
Obviously consoles have gained a good chunk of the market. The rise of the console market is easly explained by gaming becoming mainstream.
But console technology needs to be tested and developed somewhere else. And it helps a lot if there is something that can give you a good indication of the positives and negatives while ate the same time
giving you profit. And that is the PC gaming market. You'll see a lot of gpu accelerated physics on games in the future. But most of that will be on the PC where devs are doing their research.
Microsoft and Sony anouncement only confirm that. They want to make more profit from what they have since consoles are not about pushing the technological boundry. PCs are. Consoles are about making good
boxed experiences for the mainstream audience. This year you'll have a new generation of graphics cards, DX 11, the introduction of ray tracing in games, physics and AI on the gpu. Games will be a lot more
realitic and enviroments way more interactive. You'll probably see some controlers like the wii coming to the pc. I'll bet with you that there is going to be a lot more focus on PC gaming later this year than the past years.
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|It's just great to watch both these "superior" consoles being crapped on by the Wii. Gotta love Nintendo for showing these guys the real deal!
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|"It must SUCK for both these platforms!! Getting their ASS's handed to them year after year by the Wii......... "
You forget that MS makes a ton of money on Live and XBOX points. I've easily spent hundreds of dollars on Live since I bought my 360. I bought one Wii points card simply for the browser, which sucks BTW. The PS3's browser is much better, and free I might add.
I think something like 70% of all XBOX360s are on Live. If they have 20 million consoles out there, 14 million pay $50 a year. That is almost 3/4 of a billion in annual fees. If each customer only buys $50 worth of points a year, that is 1.5 billion.
The Wii has junk for downloads and the PS3 can't seem to get anyone to spend money like MS does with the 360. PS3 Home is a joke but the BD capability rocks. The Wii is still the weirdo console with it's funky controllers and the mystique has worn off.
The WiiFit sells because of losers hoarding them for eBay.
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Big Surf Island is coming out for Burnout Paradise tonight, there's 10 more dollars in Live points........
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|Maybe this will be an oportunity for PC gaming to make a come back.
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|It must SUCK for both these platforms!! Getting their ASS's handed to them year after year by the Wii.........
WiiFit (Wii Board) still is owns the top sales...
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|Isn't the whole point of a new console being released simply because we've maxed out the existing gaming experience?
How much better would a new console really be at this point? It would just force gamers to spend hundreds on a new system that likely wouldn't offer anything better then what they have today.
I think Microsoft is making the best move with Natal. No need for a new system. Natal simply adds on and brings something new to the existing console.
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|the X360 doesn't need a complete overhaul. just add the latest ATI GPU and put 2GB on the motherboard. Problem solved. Wouldn't need to redesign the board too much. Add a better heat sink for the GPU and then call it 360R2. Hell adding just 2GB of DDR2 memory to the motherboard and dressing up the Dash to use a wireless standard keyboard, mouse would make it a system that would last 10+ years.. But you know Microsoft...adding memory and upgrading the GPU would cost billions on R&D, which of course is a load of sh*t. They should have added 1GB of memory standard when the 360 Elite came out. Hopefully one day someone will hack the Dash and take out the security checking for playing games off the HD. Copying a damn game to the HD only to still need the damn disc for the security check is a crock..
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|"Copying a damn game to the HD only to still need the damn disc for the security check is a crock.."
Except all you cheap asses would just rent games and copy them to the HDD. Don't you think MS thought of this? The point of using the HDD is your favorite games will load 5 X faster.
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|I agree with Ryusennin and would like to add my own perspective here. I own all three of the latest gen major consoles and would own all three of the previous gen if I hadn't traded/sold them 'cause they were collecting dust, as I have BC in the 360, PS3 and Wii.
Two major components of the latest gen have made them different from ALL of the previous generations: 1) Greatly increased interactivity and the maturement of consoles and being online, whether it's your friends & family on the Wii or online with XBLive/PSN & 2) HD graphics (360 & PS3)that can compete with PC graphics. At least enough to not make me throw down $400-600 on a video card every time a new PC game comes out.
I think we've hit a ceiling here for a while. Unless the next consoles can somehow add to these vast improvements with their base hardware alone, why would anyone NEED to get 'the latest & greatest'? In my opinion the only one that could GREATLY improve with an upgrade of better graphics is Nintendo, but since they're the latest entry and "the gimmick" hasn't stopped their sales, why would they do that? As well, if the Natal Project for the Xbox does what it threatens to do to 'up the competition', I'm personally not giving up on the current generation anytime soon and I think the big three are seeing the same thing I'm seeing.
That's my 2 cents.
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|Tim, you're a little off with this. this will have a ten year lifecycle yes, but as far as being the flagship -- it probably will not end up being the "new" console for much more than five.
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|Maybe 5 years from now, the PS3 will actually be affordable :)
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|"Not only will these devices be supported for ten years, they will be the primary video gaming vehicles for Sony and Microsoft for twice as long as most other video game consoles in history."
Come on Tim. I'm fed up reading all this bullsh!t. It's time to debunk this foobar. Not all consoles died prematurely like the PC-FX or the ill-fated Dreamcast.
The 8-bit Famicom has commercially lasted for about twelve years (from 1983 to 1995). The 16-bit PC Engine has lasted for about ten years (from 1987 to 1997). The PS1 lifespan was ok (seven years, from 1994 to 2001). And the PS2 reigned from 2000 to 2008, which is not too shabby either.
At each new generation, we hear the same crap from prfessional analysts: the next generation will be around in less than five years. Get real guys! Each new generation is costing more to develop than the previous one, and the current PS360 have been very long to warm up.
The console market has never been about quick hardware cycles, but about software longevity.
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|The "10-year Life Cycle" does not necessarily mean that it will be their flagship console for that entire time. There will be a new console in a few years, with ongoing support for the X360 -- much as there has been for the PS2. Longer life cycles are really necessary for consoles that also serve as media hubs for the living room -- not just gaming devices. The X360 might be reaching the ceiling on its processing prowess (not sure that I agree with EA on that claim), but it certainly can have a long life in regards to music serving, downloadable videos, streaming content, light-weight (read: XBLA) gaming, and so forth. Unless it gets the RRoD.
Don't get all twisted up about the 10-year Life Cycle.
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|Heh. I smashed my first car as hard as possible in to a hedge/ditch.
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|..."one of those" what? (posted as a reply, believe it or not)
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|We already have one of those, its called.....
Wait for it.......
A COMPUTER!
You WIN at the Internets!
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|Your computer is 10 years old is it? So its a Pentium 2/300 , with a 1GB hard drive, 16 speed CDROM and 8MB of RAM running Windows 98SE?
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|Its the same damn concept. If you are changing out or switching parts in your console, then basically its no longer that original console.
The argument of "Upgrading" Consoles is flawed. Because consoles sell so well and work so well because they are a closed system. Lets say for instance that the Xbox360 had an option to upgrade the video card in it....
So consumer has to fork down anywhere between 100-200 dollars for this "upgrade".
Now developers have to decide wether they want their games to be backwards compatible with the old video card or not... So they either alienate the install base, or suffer some extra financial burden and make it backwards compatible, or deliver a sega 32x blow to the peripheral and just ignore it.
The beauty about Consoles from the perspective of the developer is that they don't have to worry about compatibility, they have a target install base of x million people, by being a closed system you take out 1 huge variable which is compatibility.
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|Don't be so harsh computershack, 10 years agao wasn't that bad. We had AMD athlons between 600 MHZ and 1 GHZ. 128MB to 512MB was about standard. I think we 50x CD roms and DVD drives. Plus Windows 2000 (yes windows 2000 came out before the year 2000). Plus broadband was slowly rolling out into several markets. =D
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|The N64 had the expansion pack so why not.
I would rather pay a small price once every few years than a large amount for a new console every five years.
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|don't forget Sega tried to sell upgrades for the sega genesis with the Sega CD and the horrible 32x. Nintendo also came out with a weird disk drive for the N64 but never even made it over to NA i think
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|Don't dis the Sega add-on's! I had all of them! I use to see how high I could stack everything up. I had the Sega, Sega CD, 32X, then I would plug my Game Genie cartridge into the 32X, then the Sonic and Knuckles game (it had that flip top to stick another game on it and I forget why you would do that) then I would shove some other game on top of that, I forget which one.It was hilarious seeing this tower of cartridges sticking out of a Sega. I'm pretty sure I still have all of that stuff in my attack along with almost every Sega game ever made. Toejam and Earl is my all time favorite. Batman for Sega CD was alright from what I remember. I only really played it when it first came out then didn't really play it anymore. Does ANYBODY remember that game Micheal Jackson's Moonwalker? You go around saving little children, and when you save them, they say (in a child's voice) "MICHEAL!" or something like that.
Nintendo hasn't always been the BEST with add-on's. Aside from Duck Hunt I mean. For Super Nintendo (SNES) I had those Infrared Bazooka's (Super Scope)... they didn't work for crap. They were SO inaccurate, not to mention the fact that they took like six AA batteries! That's a lot of batteries! Even more so because I had 2 of those Super Scopes! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Scope
Now I'm going to stop being nostalgic. In all fairness, Microsoft and Sony had every right to have that "HD War", but honestly, it just ended up leaving consumers with useless HD-DVD drives. Luckily, I got my HD-DVD drive on hardcore sale just before they annouced they were dropping HD-DVD so I didn't waste very much money. They would have stood a better chance, and might have even dominated the console market COMPLETELY if they would have built the drive into the X360.
As far as reliability, I give Microsoft credit for improving the Xbox's chances of not getting the RRoD. They've made a few updated chipsets so far with more coming that made it quieter and run cooler. The quieter part was mostly because of the new disc drive, but if you ever get a REALLY hot xbox, you'll hear all the fans turn on high, and those are LOUD! I actually just got an Elite the other day (not a Jasper Chipset :-( ) and it's much quieter than the unit I had die on me the other day. It was about 2 years old. Still had my 20 gig drive from my launch 360 on it. Unfortunately, Best Buy FAILED to transfer over my data, then shipped my old X360 and my old hard drive out. :-(
PS3's are pretty nice actually. I got the 60 Gig when they launched also, and mine JUST died a couple months ago. I ran that thing for the first couple years like 24/7 while it did Folding@Home. It never flinched. Then after I started letting it sit off, it just collected even more dust than normal. One day I updated to new firmware, saw one of my buddies got a PS3 and sent me a friend request, added him as a friend and instantly, the video crapped out. I was sad! I had just gotten Little Big Planet for my Birthday. Now PS3 wants $150 to send me a refurb of the same model. I wish I would have gotten that warranty plan for my PS3 also. ER!
Either way, the PS3 is being under-utilized in it's processing aspects. They already know how to basically completely fill the Blu-Ray Disc, all they have to do is learn how to code the games better. It IS much more difficult to work with, but they can do amazing thing with it if they really try.
If anything, they should work on coming out with bigger hard drives for the X360 and PS3, especially the X360. They have to make them cheaper too!
That's all I have to say. I'm getting bored of going on about this.
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