Login:
Password:

Roundtable: Four experts dissect the Microsoft bid for Yahoo

By Scott M. Fulton, III, BetaNews

February 1, 2008, 7:01 PM

It may be among one of the historical milestones in the history of technology, and it may never actually become a done deal. Why is Microsoft risking so much, what could it gain even by losing, and what does it really think it would gain by winning?

For an in-depth analysis of the strategy and motivations behind Microsoft's extraordinarily bold move, BetaNews on Friday spoke with four principal experts in the industry, both observers and insiders:

Jarvis Coffin, CEO of Burst Media, which manages the Burst Network of resources and tools for advertisers and publishers -- a major competitor of DoubleClick;

Michael Gartenberg, vice president and research director of leading industry analysis firm JupiterResearch;

Carmi Levy, senior vice president of strategic consulting at AR Communications, an industry research and analysis firm based in London, Ontario;

Matt Rosoff, lead analyst with Directions on Microsoft, a firm that concentrates on all aspects of that single company.


Why now?

As Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer confirmed this morning, Microsoft had indeed been pursuing Yahoo for the past eighteen months. The revelation of this fact implies several new things, including that Microsoft's strategy of acquiring firms such as aQuantive and Tellme Networks with the objective of achieving a par with Yahoo, may have actually been Microsoft's "plan B."

Timing, our experts all agree, was critical. The first proverbial bell probably sounded just last Tuesday, when Yahoo was forced to admit its restructuring was not going well.

"Yahoo continues to stumble in its turnaround plan," AR Communications' Carmi Levy reminded us. "They continue to lag market expectations, they continue to fail to gain traction in the online advertising space, and their growth rate was significantly behind that of Google. And if this situation had been allowed to continue, they would've eventually just fallen to also-ran status -- in fact, in many regards, they already were. Shareholders were obviously upset and they wanted something done, and done soon. So exit Terry Semel as CEO, and this week, exit Terry Semel as chairman."

That was bell #2: the surprise announcement late last night of Yahoo chairman Terry Semel's resignation.

"Shareholder patience is finite, and at some point, they will expect action," said Levy. "So as Yahoo continues to flounder and its share price continues to be battered, Microsoft saw a new opportunity whereas previously it had not existed. It's always much easier to step into a situation when you are perceived as the white knight rescuing the fair damsel, than if you are in fact a hostile bidder -- and in this case, Microsoft certainly wants to present itself as a friendly bidder rescuing Yahoo and helping it achieve traction that it was unable to achieve on its own."

"How much more dominant is the combination of Microsoft and Yahoo going to look to the world than AOL looked half a dozen years ago?"

Jarvis Coffin, CEO, Burst Media

"If you look at events that have unfolded over the last year," Jupiter's Michael Gartenberg chimed in, "the departure of Semel and the fact that as recently as the last 72 hours, people are saying, 'What is Yahoo's vision? Is this new CEO working out?' And announcing layoffs...From Microsoft's perspective, it was a question of, 'Let's get this started again,' and this time they'll go and bypass the response of [the board of directors of] Yahoo, and go right to the marketplace, and say, 'Hey, shareholders! How would you like to get your Yahoo stock price from six months ago back tomorrow?"'

Indeed, the Wall Street Journal is quoting unnamed Yahoo officials late this afternoon as saying Microsoft gave them only 48 hours to respond to Ballmer's offer, thus giving credence to the theory that Microsoft was not only ready and willing, but eager to advance its offer to the shareholder stage.

"I think Microsoft has Google on the brain, and it absolutely sees this as a way to close the gap between itself and its principal competitor in terms of size and stature online, Google," remarked Burst Media CEO Jarvis Coffin. "And this transaction, if it goes through, will surely do that."

Next: What would Microsoft gain?

Continued. . .
1 | 2 | 3 | Next >>

Add a Comment (31 Comments)

BetaNews reserves the right to remove any comment at any time for any reason. Please keep your responses appropriate and on topic. Foul language and personal attacks will not be tolerated.

Name (required):

E-mail (required):

Enter Your Comment:

By mesiex

edited Feb 5, 2008 - 5:46 AM

We always talk about "Microsoft", but where is the border with "Macrohard"?

Score: 0

By the artist

posted Feb 4, 2008 - 12:40 PM

IS THIS EVERYWHERE THE FORUM'S DISCUSSION WENT? THE BASH-ANSWER PROTOCOL? NOTHING TO SAY?

Score: 0

By PC_Tool

posted Feb 4, 2008 - 8:49 PM

IS THIS EVERYWHERE THE FORUM'S DISCUSSION WENT? THE BASH-ANSWER PROTOCOL? NOTHING TO SAY?

Not really, other than:

CAPS LOCK IS CRUISE CONTROL FOR COOL!!

Score: 0

By ingram091

posted Feb 3, 2008 - 12:56 PM

AOL YAHOO MSN Compuserve, All are relics of the past anyhow. the only one that has the deep pockets to progress to a true corporate dictatorship is Microsoft. The downside is that now all yahoo accounts are going to be flooded to the nth degree with the endless Spam that resides in the MS network. My hotmail account has more spam then a spam factory. Why? cause MS is notorious for selling their username lists to advertisers, and the insecurity in their network also leads to loss of personal data.

So now that MS may get their grubby hands on Yahoo customer list expect more of the same for them. And of course the inevitable IE7 required, thus Vista Required, and of course MSN live required to have access to your Yahoo account from now on.

hooray another Monopoly.

Score: 0

By Hellcat_M

edited Feb 4, 2008 - 3:41 PM

Take your meds dude. I use XP and I use Firefox to check my hotmail all the time. I get tons of spam on one of my hotmail accounts because I use it to sign up for s***, but I have another hotmail account that gets zero spam.

Let me guess you have a mac or you use Linux? Good for you. The top 3 reasons MS windows is the #1 used OS is because

1. MS ha the most programs and games. Mac OS is good for graphics and video work, but not great for most businesses. Mac OS server doesn't do everything that MS server can do.

2. Most people who use Windows don't want to have to go out and buy a ton more programs that will work on another OS, or learn the free alternatives which aren't YET grown up enough for the average person.

3. People are use to Windows, they know how it works. Companies and people at home don't want to take the time and learn a new OS. Even though you may say Mac OS is simple, for the average person that already learned Windows, its not. When I first played around with Mac OS there are many things I didn't know what to do and if me a tech savvy person couldn't figure out things right away without asking, then the average person will have a harder time and training cost, so its easier to just go with what you know.

The next chance another OS will have to lead will be when something totally dynamic and new comes out in an OS. Like when the first 100% voice activated OS comes out where you can just open folders and files and such by voice command. Or when a 3D OS comes out where you can manipulate the OS with your hands instead of keyboard and mouse. These OS' are years away, so we have some time for Windows to be #1 and who knows maybe they'll be the first to make one of these OS' then we'll have many years more of nagging and complaining.

Last I heard Apple is doing very well for itself and so are some Linux distros, and in a monopoly this would not happen. So I guess their goes your theory.

I for one don't think MS is evil. I like Mac OS and Linux too. I don't think MS is evil, if you want to see evil then go to Walmart.

"AOL YAHOO MSN Compuserve, All are relics of the past anyhow. the only one that has the deep pockets to progress to a true corporate dictatorship is Microsoft."

Oh and the last I heard MSN was part of Microsoft so this comment does show how much you really do need meds.

Score: 0

By deminicus

posted Feb 6, 2008 - 8:18 AM

1. i agree, main reason I don't use linux(at home)
2. Only point to make is that sometimes open source apps are better, though many will work for windows anyway

3. I like the fact that I know my os to a good degree that allows me to do things a normal user wouldn't know how. You have eventually pick one side to up your skills. Being a master of all takes too much time.

As for future os, i think a keyboard is hard to replace, if you use unix a lot you can see why. It would take something like direct link (e.g. matrix, ghost in the shell) to top it I think. Maybe a highly intuative 3d voice command system.

Score: 0

By Niro

posted Feb 3, 2008 - 5:14 PM

"My hotmail account has more spam then a spam factory. Why?"

Funny...my MSN account is the only account I have that is spam free. Why? Because I never used it to sign up for ANYTHING.

"cause MS is notorious for selling their username lists to advertisers"

Proof? Didn't think so.

"and the insecurity in their network also leads to loss of personal data. "

Proof? Didn't think so.

"And of course the inevitable IE7 required"

weird, I don't need to use IE7 to access my msn account.

"thus Vista Required"

Even more weird...I have IE7 installed and I'm not using Vista...I must be doing something wrong?

"hooray another Monopoly"

What monopoly? Google has 60% of the search engine market...MS and Yahoo combined have about 30%...yea, they're a monopoly. Oh, no my eyes aren't rolling because you have no clue what you're talking about, they just do that sometimes...

Score: 0

By ingram091

edited Feb 3, 2008 - 11:54 PM

and the insecurity in their network also leads to loss of personal data.

Not 2 seconds after a password reminder for some random account is sent to a HOTMAIL address its easily stolen with packet sniffers...

Sure its against the law, but it does not change that its done. Its happened to me twice. That was enough for me to say Hotmail was worthless as anything but a spam box.

And IE7 is soon to be required for all live services, and once XP is officially retired all IE7 and Live services will be Vista only... thats only next year...

Point is MS just keeps taking over crap all the time and too soon it will be nothing but MS. And when that happens we have no choice anymore when they amke their bad consumer decisions yet again to be good for them and very bad for anyone that is their customer. IE Windows 10 $800 Mandatory installation or no internet access allowed (EVEN WITH COMPETITOR BROWSERS)... Oh freaking boy how lucky are we?

Try looking ahead at what these MS people try to pull over your eyes every year, and get called on all teh time by people that review their actions for both teh public and the government. And they have to put the breaks on with MS all the time. Trust me if they didn't we would all ahve Zero choice but to paying MS extortion subscription fees for using Windows Vista and IE7 even after paying around $400 for it. The ultimate goal of MS is to make the internet, email, and Windows, and Office similar to a MMOs business model. Not only paying for the apps, but the right to continue to use them on your machine. And even after the fact if you want to open something and your subscription is lapsed you would not be able to open any documents unless your extortion payments (subscription) are paid up.

Oh and trust me If Google gets it it would not be any better cause Googles days are numbered, and MS will get a two fer with that one...

Score: 0

By PC_Tool

posted Feb 4, 2008 - 8:48 PM

Even though we rarely agree, you are usually, at least, lucid.

Get hit on the head with an 18-wheeler this morning?

Score: 0

By the artist

posted Feb 4, 2008 - 12:31 PM

stop you delirious anti-ms stupidity show please!

Score: 0

By Niro

edited Feb 4, 2008 - 12:59 AM

"Not 2 seconds after a password reminder for some random account is sent to a HOTMAIL address its easily stolen with packet sniffers... "

Passwords to hotmail are sent with ssl encryption, same as just about all webmail accounts...any passwords sent to any site can be picked up with a sniffer,, you're acting like this is a hotmail problem only...do you even know how packet sniffers work?? LOL It's not like I can sit here and "packet sniff" your hotmail account...I really wish people that posted here would have at least a little technical knowledge.;/

"Its happened to me twice."

I seriuosly doubt that. Are you running a wide open, unencryped wireless AP at your house?

"And IE7 is soon to be required for all live services, and once XP is officially retired all IE7 and Live services will be Vista only... thats only next year... "

Sources? Didn't think so.

"Point is MS just keeps taking over crap all the time and too soon it will be nothing but MS. And when that happens we have no choice anymore when they amke their bad consumer decisions yet again to be good for them and very bad for anyone that is their customer. IE Windows 10 $800 Mandatory installation or no internet access allowed (EVEN WITH COMPETITOR BROWSERS)... Oh freaking boy how lucky are we?"

That entire paragraph is about the dumbest thing I ever read in my life...I think I actually lost braincells reading that.

"Try looking ahead at what these MS people try to pull over your eyes every year, and get called on all teh time by people that review their actions for both teh public and the government. And they have to put the breaks on with MS all the time. Trust me if they didn't we would all ahve Zero choice but to paying MS extortion subscription fees for using Windows Vista and IE7 even after paying around $400 for it. The ultimate goal of MS is to make the internet, email, and Windows, and Office similar to a MMOs business model. Not only paying for the apps, but the right to continue to use them on your machine. And even after the fact if you want to open something and your subscription is lapsed you would not be able to open any documents unless your extortion payments (subscription) are paid up."

I take my last statement back...THIS is by far the dumbest thing I ever read.

"Oh and trust me If Google gets it it would not be any better cause Googles days are numbered, and MS will get a two fer with that one... "

Uh...what?

Score: 0

By Hellcat_M

posted Feb 4, 2008 - 3:12 PM

I have to agree with you Niro, this guy must be on something or bi-polar. lol

Score: 0

By davidlerner

posted Feb 3, 2008 - 9:47 AM

Yahoo is worthless is that what you think, well then you are wrong. From what I see it is still the most visited site on the planet. So yes it is worth a lot.

Score: 0

By Hellcat_M

posted Feb 4, 2008 - 3:05 PM

I never said Yahoo was worthless. I was saying MS should use the Yahoo name and grow on it. Most regular people (people who don't read up on here, people who don't read up on tech much period because it gives them a headache) know either Google or Yahoo. MS has some good ideas with their MS live, so incorporate them with the Yahoo name, maybe Yahoo live. This has been coming for a while if you think about it. Now you can talk to MSN people on yahoo messenger and vica versa, so MSN has been thinking of this idea for a while. Their are people who love MSN messenger and others who love Yahoo so keep them separate too and just let people from both messengers talk to each other.

Here is a good idea Google should buy AOL and fix or get rid of all their failing projects.

Score: 0

By Hellcat_M

posted Feb 2, 2008 - 4:14 PM

I think if MS is smart this could work for them but they'd have to keep the companies separate.

If they change the yahoo name to MSN people might move away from using the site. If they keep the Yahoo and add on to it then people who use Yahoo may give it a chance. Like when Ford merged with Jaguar, Mazda and Volvo they kept the company names, I think MS has to do the same.

Score: 0

By davidtb

posted Feb 2, 2008 - 10:03 AM

Four experts
wouldn't that be a square table?

Score: 0

By skorpian

posted Feb 2, 2008 - 12:51 PM

I think it was a slight reference to Microsoft's pathetic excuse for a 360 degree video conferencing product called Roundtable.

Score: 0

By sjc001

posted Feb 2, 2008 - 5:31 AM

If you can't beat them, buy them......

Score: 0

By PC_Tool

posted Feb 4, 2008 - 8:44 PM

*laughs*

Wow. Beat who? Yahoo?

Where have you been the last 10 years?

Score: 0

By Niro

posted Feb 2, 2008 - 8:06 AM

Uh...Yahoo hasn't beaten MS in anything....Actually Yahoo is huge sinking ship.

Score: 0

By prndll

posted Feb 2, 2008 - 8:21 AM

I agree, but I don't see this as something that would make yahoo more desirable. It would however make yahoo more likely to get updated, upgraded, and integrated. It's core (and user base) could easily become part of MSN.

Score: 0

By Floodland

posted Feb 2, 2008 - 11:12 AM

Yes, and then yahoo mail will become a nightmare, and yahoo search may start censoring linux searches and later yahoo messanger will require 8gb RAM and at least a 16 core processor to show you some ads in front of your contact list.
Now, seriously, I think this actually may help Google to gain even more market share.

Score: 0

By vadarkwolf

posted Feb 2, 2008 - 6:35 PM

I agree with you, I think this would help get google more shares

Score: 0

By Niro

posted Feb 2, 2008 - 8:40 PM

Yes...because, that just makes sense, right?

I mean...it's not like MS knows what they're doing, it's run by a bunch of HS kids, right?

Score: 0

By ant8400

posted Feb 2, 2008 - 9:33 PM

i think the reason why Google is such a popular brand as well as Apple is just the way it is, Microsoft, Lycos, Yahoo... there all trying to be something there not, take there home pages for example... googles, clean crisp easy to find what your looking for, with microsoft yahoo etc.. they have just to much there home pages are to busy and people get put off by the

Simplicty is the key, Apple & Google now its done, Microsoft & Yahoo dont.

Microsoft & Yahoo are both sinking ships!

give it 5 years and windows & microsoft will be long gone, mac's are the way forward.

( slighty off topic but you catch my drift. )

Score: 0

By athome

posted Feb 6, 2008 - 6:49 AM

Apple? Am I missing something?

Score: 0

By Niro

posted Feb 2, 2008 - 10:15 PM

"Microsoft & Yahoo are both sinking ships!"

Uhm...MS made record revenues last year, beating expectations...maybe you want to redefine what a sinking ship is??

"give it 5 years and windows & microsoft will be long gone"

I'll sell 5 years...how much are you willing to put on that statement? I'll even give you odds. 100 to 1 odds in your favor, $500k that MS and Windows will be far from "long gone" in 5 years. That's a bet you can't refuse, right?

Score: 0

By ant8400

posted Feb 3, 2008 - 12:07 PM

By a sinking ship i mean, they try to design and make something and Apple come along and do a damn good better job at it.

Apple iPod & Zune ... which one is better iPod.

Itunes vs Windows Media Player? ... itunes is better.

Apple have the ideas just like Podcasts, microsoft just dont have the ideas anymore. the only ideas they do have is like DRM & Activation. nobodys intrested in that.

Apple will always do one better, System Restore Vs Time Machine ....

one thing microsoft wins on is its Generic can be installed on any computer. but im sure apple will be in there little labs designing software that will run on basicly any computer built.

I enjoy using both OS's, Microsoft OS is more globally recognised, but anyone i talk to now has heard of Mac OS, plus Mac is much much cheaper £89 for lepoard and 300+ for vista ultimate??

Sorry mate, in 5 years time youll be using one of Apple's Computers to write on the wall of Betanews ill put money on it.

Score: 0

By Niro

posted Feb 3, 2008 - 1:45 PM

"Apple iPod & Zune ... which one is better iPod."

Opinions are like a**holes...everybody has one.

"Itunes vs Windows Media Player? ... itunes is better."

I hate to repeat myself, but "Opinions are like a**holes...everybody has one."

"Apple have the ideas just like Podcasts"

What does that statement even mean? Apple didn't even come up with the "podcasts" idea...

"ideas they do have is like DRM & Activation."

DRM? That's not MS's idea...you ever heard of the RIAA or MPAA? Yea...if apple wants in on the hi-def world, DRM is something they will have to implement.

"im sure apple will be in there little labs designing software that will run on basicly any computer built."

Uhm...apple SPECIFICALLY DESIGNED their software NOT to run on just any machine. You can install their OS on any machine with a hack, but then guess what, you're breaking the law. They're not in their "little labs" trying to make their software more compatible...they're in "there little labs" trying to make their software only work on their platform and preventing you from using it on just any machine. Talk about restrictions.

"Sorry mate, in 5 years time youll be using one of Apple's Computers to write on the wall of Betanews ill put money on it. "

Ok...lets put money on it, like I said, I'll even give you odds.

I'll tell you what, in 5 years, when you graduate HS and start working in the real world, come back and talk about something you might have a slight better understanding of....and don't forget about my cash.

Score: 0

By WebWarp

posted Feb 4, 2008 - 2:26 AM

"I'll tell you what, in 5 years, when you graduate HS and start working in the real world, come back and talk about something you might have a slight better understanding of....and don't forget about my cash."

Man Niro, you have in all your posts demonstrated your lag of knowledge, so I seriously hope that the above post was irony... And how in the world did you guys end up b****ing ipod vs zune - This topic is about MS buying Yahoo ...

Score: 0

By il-loostya

posted Feb 4, 2008 - 3:07 AM

Actually I believe Niro's points were quite good.... you HS kids have a lot to learn.

Score: 0