The Dark Knight may yet save Blu-ray from the lair of the PS3
By Scott M. Fulton, III | Published December 22, 2008, 2:30 PM
Those bells you hear aren't all just about the holidays. They're signals that BetaNews is publishing a positive story about Blu-ray. Mark the date in your calendars.
In an effort to restore consumers' enthusiasm in the high-definition disc format that, after all, won the format war, the Blu-ray Disc Association is emphasizing some positive statistics from recent weeks' sales worldwide: Some 462,500 BDs were sold in the UK during the month of November, which the Association claims is a 165% jump from just the previous month.
A huge chunk of those discs probably consist of just one movie: The Dark Knight, Warner Bros.' latest chapter in its Batman saga, featuring the final performance of the late Heath Ledger. According to Warner's figures, in the first week of sales alone, The Dark Knight posted sales of 13.5 million units worldwide, some 12.6% of which were Blu-ray -- some 1.7 million discs. In the UK, the British Video Association reports this morning, some 513,000 copies of this movie were sold in its first day, with 21% of those in Blu-ray format.
Those are very respectable numbers -- at long last -- for a format that has spent the entire year stuck in the takeoff position. It's conceivable that Blu-ray discs and consoles have found the "sweet spot" -- the prices that, in the collective consumer consciousness, render them effectively affordable.
The quarter did not start out strong for Blu-ray, with average console prices stuck at about $300 and second-run discs selling above $20 apiece. Heading into Black Friday, console price averages had declined to about $240, but sales may have actually dropped. Then the day after Thanksgiving saw prices on Samsung and Sony consoles drop below the $200 mark (and Wal-Mart offering discounted models as low as $128), along with sale prices for BDs at below $20.
And then, there's the introduction of the element that PC analysts who remember Lotus 1-2-3 a quarter-century ago would call "the killer app:" the latest Batman movie.
That's when the sales spike happened. Two weeks ago, NPD DisplaySearch estimated total US-based Blu-ray console sales will eclipse the 900,000 mark and flirt with 2.2 million for the year. These are great numbers for the quarter, almost making up for Blu-ray not achieving its overall annual sales goal of 2.5 million consoles. In a quarter where revenues from HDTV sales may decline annually despite 29% unit sales growth, once the final numbers are tallied -- even with the DTV transition under way in the US -- this is an impressive comeback for a format that many analysts were preparing to write off after 2009.
It's important to note that the PlayStation 3 is barely participating in this rally. The device that was at one time supposed to have been the principal entry-level device for Blu-ray, is experiencing sales declining by almost 20% annually in the US, according to NPD's numbers for November, while being outsold by Nintendo's Wii by almost two-to-one -- with unit sales more than doubling the previous year. At a time when the sales prices for Blu-ray consoles descended below that of the PS3, consumers who want Blu-ray are buying dedicated consoles.
The magic ratio will probably be 1 in 5. In other words, when the final holiday numbers come in, maybe even in time for CES, if unit sales for both Blu-ray consoles and BDs constitute about 20% of disc-related sales volume overall, then the BDA and supporting manufacturers can claim victory.
But now that the console discounts have expired, and many prices have crept back up to around $250, has consumers' window of opportunity already closed? The BDA's statement this morning may have been a spur for retailers to help pre-empt that possibility.
You know what is really telling?
I just couldn't resist checking out the availability of Batman: The Dark Knoght at 2 local Super WalMarts.
Now the vast 9 foot selection of BR titles still had about 6 copies of the deluxe 2 disk copies avaibale, while the regular DVD in the basic edition as well as the deluxe edition was, and as I was informed, had been sold out for quite some time.
And, to add to my complete amazement, not only was the widescreen regular DVD version sold out, but so was the FULL SCREEN :-O edition!
Now I would go so far as to question why ANY current movie is released in full screen (and I am even surprised to see the dual wide/full screen versions). But then the FULL SCREEN version blows away the BR sales, we have a REAL problem! Or should I say, BR has a REAL problem.
Yup, BR is taking over the world. Especially when full screen editions still outsell it, let alone widescreen regular DVDs!
Now that IS a sad prognosis!
LOL!
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|You wait. HD DVD will make a comeback. I'm still clinging on to both my HD DVD players and the tons of low price HD DVDs I bought on sale.
HD DVD will prevail!!
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|I really don't think its going to matter... Blu-ray as well as DVD will eventually go south much like Cd's have from MP3's. I think I bought 1 CD in the last 2 years? The way its going - you will see HD streaming movies (ie Xbox with netflix even though its not HD yet) become common place very very soon.
Oddly in 5 years i can see a set-top box with a 5TB HD in it - that streams rental movies for $1.99 or you can buy it via digital download for $9.99 - if not cheaper. All the movie companies would come on board, they have to manufacture nothing on their end, just make $$$.
There will no longer an eject button on our new media players.
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|You're right, Tech always out Techs itself.
But, I know people who use their Xbox as their DVD player and don't have internet access at all. Others buy CDs just because they don't have an iPod or other player and wouldn't know how to listen to their music without the physical disc.
While Tech keeps climbing some people are settling on the rungs they feel most comfortable on. Even though BDs are pretty much already obsolete, they will still have a prolonged future of 10+ years in the homes of the uninitiated.
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|My lovely PS3 updated itself when I tried to log on to Home tonight. Not only can I not get on at all, but I plugged my iPod in to see if the last major update had improved the GUI.
It has been counting the 11,000+ tracks for the last 25 minutes because you can't just plug it in and play like the 360.
At least I discovered the little PS logo rotates 90 degrees so it will look right whether you lay it flat or stand it on it's side.
This console is good for one thing, Blu Ray. I am really beginning to hate all aspects of this console that don't pertain to HD movie watching.
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|strange, I have NEVER had an issue with my ipod and ps3... u just have to go to the folder that has the music, and it shows up funny looking def not that big of a deal.
This console is good for many things. I have only watched a blu-ray once, but I mainly use my ps3 for webbrowsing and playing games, NOT for blu-rays.
I have had home for months and NEVER had an issue connecting. I belive you, but i just feel bad that ur having bad luck with ur ps3.
I use my ps3 ALOT more than my 360 since ps3 does more.
oh, the ps3 logo lol i thought i broke it when I turned it around
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|blah blah...Home has been working fine for weeks...try getting off the 56k modem Holly...
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|Everyone I know who owns a Blu-Ray movie also owns a PS3..and even then, only because they got it for the same price as a standard DVD. If Microsoft had put an HD-DVD in the 360, HD would've won and the PS3 would've utterly bombed (either that or Sony would've released an HD add-on player). Its hard to believe that "video format fanboys" are out there, but I guess some people can't handle the reality that they got taken. Personally I'm just happy to see Sony's marketplace manipulation being rewarded with short-term failure. A year from now the prices of Blu-Ray hardware and titles will be right in line with standard DVD, and as people upgrade their living rooms Blu-Ray will slowly and steadily become the norm. Even then Blu-Ray's lifespan will be limited as digital distribution kills discrete media over the next twenty years or so. The entire saga actually leaves me a bit more confident in the collective savvy of the buying public.
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|Nothing savvy about it. People simply can't afford to be spending so much money on expensive players/media anymore.
The realities of the marketplace have caught up to Sony.
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|still cracks me up when the broke folks compare "upconverting" sdvd's to blu-rays lol
Come on! why are u kidding urselves?
in my eyes, blu-ray dvd's are the SAME jump that standard dvds were to vhs.
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|It's definitely not the same as HD but a lot of newer DVD's look pretty close. Older movies still look crappy upscaled or not.
Sin City on standard DVD looks like HD when upscaled on my PS3, it is by far the most impressive movie I have ever seen. 300 is another one, they are incredible.
Most of these people are not watching upscaled DVD's on TV's bigger than 42" anyways. When you go 65" or 103" for that matter, upscaling doesn't make a big difference.
Let the non HD adopters have their fun.
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|DVD: You only had to upgrade your DVD player to enjoy the difference, even on older TVs. Rental market for DVDs was 99% what it was for VHS. Media is cheap.
Blu: You *must* upgrade your player, pay more for media, and upgrade to a larger HD set to enjoy the experience even minimally. That is a $2000 investment just to join the club. Rental market is fairly nonexistent. Media isn't cheap.
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|I think it really depends on your set up. Upconverting does make sdvd's look better, but not as good as true HD. However, if you have an older TV or an older HD-TV, most people wont notice it. We are videophiles so we really know what to look for, etc.
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|PS3 doesn't need saving. It has years and years of growth ahead of it as Sony continues to lower price.
I recommend losing this short-sighted and impulsive mentality that can be dangerous and ignorant.
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|Years and years of growth... with an outdated GPU that I was already using in my PC 2 years before the PS3 was launched? Hardly.
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|That's what you'll think now, but wait until the Xbox 720 is released and you'll see how much better it is and your still on your last generation PS3. Kind of like what you like to call the Wii.
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|Speaking from a consumer point of view, I don't want a device that constantly requires firmware updates every time a new movie with fancy features on the disc requires an update to operate. I don't have to download or have updates mailed to me on my DVD player.
I want to plug it in and be able to watch anything I purchase. Too much hassle and considering how the majority of the population isn't tech savvy in any way shape or form its a reciepe for serious dissatisfaction.
The other issue as I see it... DVD players come with all the cords you need to plug the device in and hook it up. BR players come with a power cord. Look forward to dropping between $50 and $100 to buy the cords needed to hook the darn thing up to your television. What a load of crap. Let's make it a real pain in the a** for anyone to take the stupid thing out of the box and use it immediately without making another run back to the store for a stupid cable.
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|Wha?...what are all these firmware updates you speak of?...there have been 1 or 2 MAX on stand alone players...and the PS3's last update that involved Blu-ray in any shape or form was back in April when Sony added DTS:HD Master Audio decoding...The PS3 updates itself just like your PC does...it pops up...says there is a new update...it downloads, installs and reboots the system...
$50 to $100 for cords?? someone is ripping you off BIG TIME...if you are paying more than $10-$15 for an HDMI cable you have been absolutely hosed by somebody...
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|Sounds like you got hosed at the local soundsaround. They always try and get you to buy Monster cables so you spend twice as much for cables you could find from another company or online for half the price.
Remember when your buying from these places theyre comission based and are going to try and make as much money on you as possible.
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|Congrats on just making this crap up as you go.
Have you actually checked pricing in the local Best Buy for HDMI cables, dominated by their marketing Monster?
Hell, you can't find a simple parallel or USB cable there for less than $20!
And the average consumer is neither familiar with, nor are they going to go online and persist in searcing for cables without having any clue as the differences in cables.
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|making crap up as you go??...how so...pricing at best buy or any retail giants are outrageous for HDMI cables...and cables in general....
simple fact...if you spend more than $10-$15 on an HDMI you got bent over and took it hard from a salesman....period...
you can get an HDMI of equal quality to a Monster HDMI cable for less than $10 on the net...
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|And some manufacturers who actually care about customer satisfaction (like Oppo Digital) will go the extra mile and include a 6' HDMI cable for...
*drum roll*
Free!
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|Monster sells that overpriced HDMI garbage and people fall for it every day. Thier best selling 6 ft cable is something like $114.
I buy all mine on eBay. I bought a 30ft HDMI $20. It passes 1080p with no problem to my projector.
I make all my own network & RS232 cables and I have a 100ft spool of mini RGB so I can crank out component with audio or digital coax in a couple of minutes.
All you people with Monster HDMI's from Best Buy are making Noel Lee rich. He is the a****** owner of Monster. I'd like to knock his crippled a** right off his Segway at CES next year. Too bad most idiots don't know s*** about anything.
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|The masses are asses ...... unfortunately, it's true.
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|hey im not saying not including an HDMI cable is a good thing...im just saying that anyone paying more than $10-$15 for an HDMI is getting hosed...my Onkyo Home Theater also came with a free HDMI cable....
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|hey Holly....you gonna be at the Warner press conference at CES this coming year?? i hear they are going HD-DVD exclusive :) lol
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|As it's digital,and the cable isn't broke,what goes in comes out the same.The only thing that disputes this is reputable? magazines,giving said cables,costing a lot,5 stars,figure that out.
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|bwahahahaha.. .. Good one Dark.. HAHAHAHAHA.. wait its really not that funny!
Heres one
Word on the street is Microsoft is going to offer a blodisk drive to accompany their better selling console (over the ps3)
(pause for the fanboi rejoice)
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|As long as you steer clear of (Sony's partner in overpriced tech) MONSTER you should be g2g.
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|but but but...you guys told me Blu-ray was dead...
whoops...
and Warner is going HD-DVD exclusive at CES this year right guys??
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|I guess you believe also believe that Apple and OSX are rendering Windows dead as well?
With a vast BR 14% of Batman hardcopy sales, that 86% regular DVD figure is just meaningless.
But enjoy your delusion, fanboy.
Whenyou are old enough to get a job, come see me. I am sure you will be ecstatic if I pay you just 14 cents on the dollar we offered to pay you! ROFLMAO!
Fanboys!
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|it starts with 1...just like DVD did with the Matrix....
keep on trying to convince everyone that you know something...
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|And apparently, as you have trouble counting much higher than 10, you are content to declare victory with ~10% market share.
The Matrix? LOL... who cares about the Matrix? It had little to do with a title! - well, aside from your believing its real...
The basic DVD platform offered a compelling improvement and reason to invest over videotape in MANY respects. BR does not relative to DVD. Oh...
Whatever, fanboy.
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|Again, he is unable to tell the truth.
We said it would remain as niche product if it fails to significantly reduce entry costs, consumable costs, and increase its total number of both new and legacy titles to levels commensurate with existing DVD costs and product availability - in short order.
And to the degree that it looks like it will fail to do that...it may very well fail.
But you have proven unable to respond with anything other than emotionally based belief unsupported by fact.
I think its hilarious to read your example of substantiation where in ALL of Europe over the entire life of BR, they have sold ~6.5 million units, compared to the sales of a SINGLE DVD title in the month of December selling 11.7 million copies in the US alone.
Impressive. NOT! Even I would have thought BR would have sold more! LOL!
You can't even garner support among the technoids on this site!
An archetypal fanboy.
Don't you have a game you can go play?
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|nobody is declaring victory with a 10% market share...what i am declaring is that you are wrong about the format being dead...or even in trouble for that matter...
who cares about the Matrix? i do because it was the first DVD that really blew up in sales for the new format...just like TDK has just done for BD
Whatever, hater
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|Explain to me something.. if the Matrix is going to save Bloray. How come it came out for HDDVD first and had the HD sound?
Sounds like your grasping at straws, obviously the market isn't making any strides to move towards bloray. I for one aren't going out to buy bloray expecially since I can upconvert the dvd for half the price.
Here's what you need to do. Covet that Sony teddy bear and believe that the an** raping they continue to give you is a catalist to some format that they will eventually succeed in.. unfortunate for you it doesn't sound like its going to be this one.
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|yea.. blew up in sales indeed...
..
.. we are still feeling the aftershocks of those impressive sales here.. wait how do those sales compare to the dvd sales.. oh wait they don't.. I think those aftershocks were from the eventual death of the bloray format.
but I won't say that I know how touchy you and your fellow fanbois get when we speak of the DEATH of the format. So I may just wait in the weeds just for that moment to say "WE TOLD YOU SO" =p
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|LOL!
Talk to the hand...
LOL!
Your stats are all the more lamentable when they comrise what should effectively be about DOUBLE what they were this time last year, before they gained the HD fans who were backing HD-DVD. That market consolidation should have accounted for an almost instant 100% increase, and yet there doesn't appear to be ANY bump. Or, to put it another way, looking solely at the numbers, almost all of the increases this year can be attributed simply to the HD-DVD folks coming over and buying BR disks and playback units - hardly market growth.
It must be a b!tch carrying that PS3 around on your skateboard.
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|can you read? i said The Matrix was the DVD release that launched the format...while TDK may very well be THE release for BD...
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|yea I can read,
let me rephrase then .. So if TDK was the release for BD again how many DVD copies were sold in comparison? oh again blown away by DVD.
wa wa wa..
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|when DVD was less than 2 full years into its life cycle was it outselling VHS??..
hint...the answer kills your argument...
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|HD DVD wasn't as popular as Blu-Ray was prior to HD DVD. Had in not been for Warner Bros support for HD DVD would have died far sooner. You can't credit HD DVD's demise for all of Blu-Rays gains.
In addition the actual sales growth has far exceeded 100% in some cases. According to Future Source year over year growth in Europe has been 320% and Blu-Ray is actually selling faster today than DVD did 10 years ago! Those numbers don't exactly sound like a niche or dead format to me.
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|Those that actually compare Blu-Ray to the experience with DVD would find that most of their arguments could made about DVD 10 years ago. Their gloomy predictions would have been wrong.
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|The problem every fanboy is forgetting, when you upgraded from vhs to dvd you didn't need to spend exorbitant amounts of money to achieve a better picture.
For blu-ray to even show any difference, you must have a hdtv, you must purchase additional cables, invest in better stereo equipment, pay more for the movies and buy the player itself
No matter how you look at it you are looking at least $1000 investment to hear and see movies better.
Upconverting is good enough for most people
You couldn't do that with VHS (or skip and select scenes) otherwise it may have held on longer.
Dvds actually did something different then dvd, with blu-ray there is nothing really new except you may be required to update your device to use it later or it becomes obsolete.
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|And the actual market gain WITHOUT the HD-DVD folks?
Hmmm.
Lwt's see. Even WITH them the results are underwhelming.
Without them...the results are dismal - considering the hype surrounding BR from the fanboys and how it will transform your life! LOL!
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|Was there a global recession?
Where people intersted in upgrading their vhs to dvd.
Was there one company who was marking up the price of the players to accomidate their bs (manufacturing costs)?
No.. well then again Sony was trying to push their laser disk format at the same time.. huh look where that went when the rest of the industry went dvd.
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|foxfyre,
it will change your life.. think about it plug in the network cable.. Log into home and dance the night away with the rest of the fanbois.
I know I don't spend as much time at the mall being a mall rat now.. my fellow fanbois are all online with the Home... ..
LOL!
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|Just an observation... When the F.W.Woolworth's closing down sale started a few days ago here in the UK, I went along at noon on the first day to get some bargains. At that time almost all the DVD shelves were empty, but the Blu-Ray shelves were still full. I guess from it that, even with prices slashed, still nobody wants Blue-Ray discs.
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|At half price, Woolworth's Blu-Ray was still more expensive than Amazon! That certainly explains why they failed to sell and also why the company was not competitive.
HMV are still trying to flog Beowulf for £27, I bought mine from Gamestation for less than a tenner. With BR titles coming down to DVD levels I can see a strong future. HDTV sales in the UK are strong enough to provide a solid foundation for Sky HD and Blu Ray. Downloaded HD is too heavily compressed and usually only 720p. A lot of people value the simplicity of physical discs, and others value the quality. Together they make a big market opportunity for BR.
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|HD audio on disc failed(dvd-a/sacd), looks like movies will too.
We reached a threshold for the masses as quality goes. They were happy with their CD audio and 128kbps mp3s and they are happy with their DVDs and OnDemand.
Mass public perception of improved quality with all of the new HD audio and video content is just not there.
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|That comparison isn't really apt. I don't think DVD audio or SACD ever had the same degree of industry support that Blu-Ray does.(All of the major movie studios are releasing Blu-Ray titles now) Blu-Ray also has far better consumer recognition than either DVD-a or SACD ever did.
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|I worked in retail over the Black Friday sale period and from then up unitl now. Even with Blu-ray players as low as $149 there was almost no interest in them what so ever at the retail level. Sure, some sold as gifts, but no where near the volume that was expected when prices crossed the "magical" $200 mark for the first time. The public responded with a collective yawn.
I talked to several retail managers about this and they all said the same thing: a day late and a dollar short. The Blu-ray manufacturers just got too greedy and waited too long to lower prices to the point that the general public would see the product as affordable. They really just missed the boat here. The time to drop prices to this level, if they really wanted to be serious about having the format adopted as a new industry standard, would have been durring LAST year's Black Friday/Christmas seson, not this year's. By the time this Christmas season rolled around, all of the interest and excitement surrounding Blu-ray was entirely gone from the consumer mindset.
If Blu-ray didn't take the world by storm with their players finally braking the $200 price point this Christmas season, and they clearly did not based on poor sales, then they have no other cards left to play. Inexpensive, standard, upconverting DVD players far outsold Blu-ray players over the Christmas buying season this year. Becaue of the way the product was mishandled from a pricing standing point, I can't see the format surviving in the marketplace beyond another year or two, tops.
This is actually really funny to watch now. HD DVD, the original replacement for standard DVD was killed off by Blu-ray...and Blu-ray now appears that it will be killed off by standard DVD. That's the thing about irony...it's just so darned ironic!
Look out anals of tech industry failurs...here comes Blu-ray!
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|As usual Mike, well said. Thank you once again for giving your take on the matter from the front lines.
By the way... I'm sure the word you were looking for was "annals". ;-)
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|A couple things. First HD DVD wasn't the 'original' DVD replacement. Sony was already demoing Blu-Ray years before its release. Had they gotten Blu-Ray to market faster HD DVD probably wouldn't have ever been released.
I think the magic number for price is closer to $100 rather than $200. Once the price difference gets that small a lot of people will upsell themselves even if they don't have HDTV with the thinking that they will buy a new TV in another a year or so anyway.
Your point on pricing doesn't make much sense since if that were the primary issue preventing adoption of Blu-Ray then HD-DVD should have done much better than it did. The primary reason more people haven't adopted Blu-Ray is that they don't have a HDTV to take advantage of the better picture quality. Sony could give away Blu-Ray players with your breakfast cereal and that would still be an issue.
When you compare the adoption for Blu-Ray versus where DVDs were at this point in it life your comments seem really shortsighted. Adoption for Blu-Ray is going to be a little slower than DVD was due to the cost of an HDTV and the weaker economy but I think its very premature but to say that format dying would contradict the sales growth.
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|Mike, STFU... you get paid 10-12 dollars an hour, and you work at ONE store. nice tunnel vision.
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|A couple of things. First part of the reason why Blu-ray was rushed to market before it was even finished as a format was because HD-DVD was finished first and was ready to go with a complete, finalized feature set. Blu-ray HAD to be released when it was or it would have been still-born in the marketplace had they waited until it was actually finished. By that time, HD-DVD would have had a large enough first-mover advantage in the market as to render Blu-ray entirely irrelevant. This is why you saw Blu-ray released with revisions such as 1.0, 1.1 and 2.0. You could liken these numbers to 1.0 = Alpha release, 1.1 = Beta release 2.0 = Final release.
The magic number for any high-def disc player has always been $200 for the general consumer. If you go back and read the articles from the original days of both HD-DVD and Blu-ray players you will frequently see respected industry analysts refer to the magic number for broad based consumer adoption as being $200. The only reason why you are now suggesting the magic number for widespread adoption among consumers is really $100 is because we just hit the $200 price point, and even broke well through it to $149 this past Black Friday and almost no one even noticed or cared...let alone actually bought the product. What's your next magic number going to be lowered to when they don't sell in a big way at $100 I wonder?
My point with respect to pricing makes a lot of sense actually, you just missed it entirely. The point is that consumers had a HUGE incentive not to buy either format back when there was a "format war" going on between HD-DVD and Blu-ray: they didn't want to wind up on the losing side of that war with something that they couldn't buy new content for going forward if their format lost. With Blu-ray winning the format war, that incentive to wait and not buy is entirely gone now.
HDTV's are the #1 selling hot product this holiday season in retail stores. They were the #1 hot selling product last Christmas season as well. Absolutely everyone is walking out the door with one at every major retailer, and many of those customers already have an HDTV in their home. They like them so much that they are buying their second or third one for additional rooms in the house now. Why on earth wouldn't these same consumers also be leaving the store with a $200 Blu-ray player under each arm then I wonder? Guess what...they aren't! No perceived benefit = No interest = no demand = no sales.
I ask you: if consumers respond to Blu-ray players at sub-$200 prices with a collective yawn like they did during this holiday buying season, what other tricks does Blu-ray have left up its sleeve to try and incent consumers to get excited about its format?
The adoption rate for Blu-ray players as compared to DVD players at this point in the life cycle is very different for one major reason: no perceived marginal benefit. Remember that the jump up in picture quality and features from VHS video tapes to DVD was absolutely huge and everyone went crazy over DVD as a result of that. The step up in picture quality and additional features from DVD to Blu-ray is perceived in the market place as being far smaller and therefore less substantive and impactful to the consumer, therefore resulting in less excitement and lower sales. My point is this: it doesn't matter how big of a step up Blu-ray is from DVD in terms of quality and features. If the general consumer doesn't perceive it as being a big enough step up, they aren't going to upgrade from DVD and buy it. Guess what? They aren't buying it.
What Blu-ray is finding out is that there is a point of diminishing marginal utility when it comes to advanced disc based movie players, in the minds of the general consuming public. Blu-ray players are not being swiped off the shelves at retailers at $200 and below now because consumers don't collectively see enough of an additional benefit of owning one. Too many people are still too satisfied and content with their upconverting DVD players to be incented to go buy a Blu-ray player. That is a very serious problem for the Blu-ray camp and one that they STILL haven't figured out how to solve, as evidenced by Blu-ray player sales.
Blu-ray is largely faltering in the marketplace now because it has successfully solved a problem that essentially didn't exist in the minds of most consumers: dissatisfaction with standard upconverting DVD players. Now, those same consumers love their HDTV's which are 1.)thinner 2.)lighter 3.)more attractive 4.)more versitile 5.) more reliable than traditional tube TV's were. They have plenty of reasons to upgrade to sexy new HDTV's from their old TV's. That one is easy math.
Even if Blu-ray has a compelling value proposition, from a technology and feature set stand point, it simply doesn't matter if consumers don't care. If that value proposition just strikes no chords what so ever in the hearts and minds of consumers, as it clearly has not up until now, and you have already lowered the price well into the range of being affordable, then what cards do you have left to play to try and stir up interest with consumers as a format?
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|Mike, please don't STFU. What you said makes the most sense out of anything I've read. I have a PS3 and have adopted watching blu-ray movies somewhat. I usually rent instead of buying because of the price.
However, people I try to talk to about blu-ray look at me like I'm speaking another language. They mention that the player prices are way too high, the movies themselves are overpriced, and the quality difference just isn't there when they compare the dollars to what an upconvert can do.
So I'll watch my rented blu-rays, and yes I do notice the difference, and be happy with my PS3 games as well. What Mike says though, makes perfect sense regarding public perception and timing.
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|Just to amplify a few of your points, as i agree completely with the difference between the consumer's perceived distinctions between videotape and DVD versus upscaled DVD versus BR...BR simply isn't compelling when cost of entry, compatibility, and the high cost of limited consumables...
"A couple of things. First part of the reason why Blu-ray was rushed to market before it was even finished as a format was because HD-DVD was finished first and was ready to go with a complete, finalized feature set."
All the more humorous when you consider that the HD-DVD consortium wasn't even formed until 2 years after Sony announced BR - the INDUSTRY'S response to Sony's established precedent with mismanaging systems!
And your citing this years sales figures are even more telling. As the market growth for BR account for little more than the HD-DVD folks simply converting to buy BR players and disks. There is little statistical growth beyond this increase, which one would have hoped would have happened FAR earlier wit a group that were ALREADY converted to HD!
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|ahh Mike your right many of us have been saying this since January. Funny though.. those fanbois and Sony keep treading water just barely. Increases in commercials.. fake sales numbers all to show their gaining ground. Yet everytime I see those bloray players on the shelf I think to myself you'd have to be suckered into buying this now... suckers indeed. I would love to see those customers with profile 1 players unable to update profiles and unable to take advantage of the slim to none extras on each blodisk.
Your right a little too late for a price drop. Perhaps if they had done this in January they would have succeeded. No tears will be shed for Sony. Lets face it they not only have to fight this war but also have to fight the war of attracting gamers to buy their console because in the spectrum they're loosing that battle too.
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|"Blu-ray is largely faltering in the marketplace now because it has successfully solved a problem that essentially didn't exist in the minds of most consumers: dissatisfaction with standard upconverting DVD players."
That about sums it up perfectly!
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|"More reliable than there old TVs were"?
You really lost most of your credibility there. Most people aren't replacing their old TVs because they died. It wasn't uncommon for CRT sets to last decades. Some of early adopters for HDTV have already replaced their sets. The reliability for LCD and plasma panels have definitely improved but the technology isn't mature enough to say that they are more reliable than a CRT set.
The first generation HD-DVD players weren't really ready for prime time either. The first Toshiba players didn't support 1080p and many of the early players were very slow to load discs.
Comparing version 1.1 to beta release really shows naivete. The newer profiles added new interactive features. An older player will still be able to play the disc you simply won't be able to use some of the interactive features. Considering HDi didn't really help HD-DVD I don't think that the interactive features are the primary selling point of these players.
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|Simply because a CRT display can work for decades doesn't mean that it is still working properly after all that time.
Phosphors burn out over time and lose their ability to display the same color intensity that they were once able to. Sure, it happens so slowly that hardly anyone notices the change... until they compare it against a newer display. You can crank the brightness / contrast settings to compensate, but then you're pushing the electron gun harder, further shortening its lifespan (not to mention you also lose detail in the process).
Oh, and a fuller-featured platform at 1080i instead of 1080p. Yeah, big difference there. It's the same resolution. Care to explain how 1080p is much more relevant today than it was 1 year ago (by way of market penetration of 1080p displays)? Most people don't even have a display capable of HDTV resolutions, and of those people that do have one, I'd be willing to bet that they opted for the "Deal of the Century" 720p/1080i Wal-Mart specials.
Incidentally, Blu-ray looks fantastic on my 1080i CRT display. :)
I agree about the long loading times... they were rather horrendous. However, the HD-XA2 remedied those problems, bringing the loading times down to the level of even today's Blu-ray players. Relatively long loading times are still a problem with every Blu-ray player out there... except for (curiously enough) a game console. It's rather puzzling that $1500-$2000 Denon models don't load movies as fast as a PS3...
HDi was far more mature and easier to develop for than BD-J... and it was ready when it was supposed to be.
The only thing that pushed HD DVD out of the picture eventually was diminishing studio support by way of corporate payoffs by the Blu-ray Disc Association. HD DVD was doing quite well last holiday season until the backstab from Warner at CES.
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|Whaaaa... Whaaaa..., Mike makes since and I can't argue with him.
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|Yup. One transitory title with the lifecycle of a fruitfly is going to result in sustained growth for the platform.
If only...
And yet we still witness standard DVDs selling 10 copies for every copy of BR. Seems like this story could just as easily - or, actually more easily and legitimately be used by the industry reps of standard DVDs to show how standard DVDs are persisting in creaming the Wunderkind BR.
...Oh, and don't forget, the BR sales figures now include all of those HD-DVD fanatics who are sold on HD but simply bet on the wrong(?) format. So the new sales figures represent the new combined demand for a unified HD format!
OK...a little more enthusiasm folks! This is (supposed to be) a celebration!....right?
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|If it's as high as 10 to 1 I'll be amazed.
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|"However, Neilsen's figures show that not only is Blu-ray not shouldering the weight, but it's buckling under the pressure. Despite the fact that Warner Bros' first BD-Live title The Dark Knight broke all previous Blu-ray sales records by moving 1.7 million units in December, it is still dwarfed next to the 11.8 million DVDs that same title sold."
http://www.betanews.com/...scs_obsolete/1229700590
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|"These are great numbers for the quarter [...]"
13% of market share for BD simply means that the DVD version of Dark Knight has been trumping the BD sales with 87% of the market!
I hope you do realize that those BD figures are actually desperately pathetic, considering the format has been around for three years already.
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|2 years :) (2.5 at best if you count the first 6 months, although the format's capital ship hadn't launch yet, aka the PS3).
This said, the DVD wasn't faring that much better 2 years in its inception, and it didn't have the hurdles BR has to overcome:
1) started with a competitor it had to battle for nearly two years
2) requires a special type of TV to work to its fullest
13% (more on revenue) is actually a decent figure given the times, and way up compared to last year.
Now, the comparison with the DVD format is interesting, given that it was the fastest embraced new tech -ever-, and the most widely adopted in a short p[eriod of time.
If Blu Ray is even near the same league in the same period of time (2-2.5 year since release), it's doing fine :)
Now if you think that BR should do more than 20% only 2 years after release against the most succesful video format in history that has been here since 10 years, while requiring a new type of TV ... I can't do anything for you :)
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|BD has been around for 2.5 years, but who was it competing with for the past 1.8 years???
It's hard to adopt a format when it's competing against red for over 70% of it's life span.
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|You make a lot of sense, however tech is growing so fast no one knows what its going to look like 6 months from now.
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|Not exactly a surprise. Much of the Blu Ray library simply isn't all that compelling yet. Many awful movies that don't inspire people to shell out the big bucks for an HD copy. Until the price comes down, it takes certain kinds of movies to get people to open up their wallets.
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|Hey, psst. I know you're trying to do a funny on the back of Blu Ray, but I have a news to break to you.
The Dark Knight's release date was Dec. 8th, even in the UK.
So, mind explaining to us how the November UK sale numbers could include "A huge chunk of those discs probably consist of just one movie: The Dark Knight, Warner Bros.' latest chapter in its Batman saga, featuring the final performance of the late Heath Ledger." ?
Nevermind, it's "Magic" :)
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|Shhh....
He's *trying* to be funny. ;)
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|As often happens in the music industry, sales figures often include pre-sales orders from the major distributors for titles in anticipation of their release...
Perhaps this is where these figures are derived?
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|Apparently you... need new shoes?
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|Those bells you hear aren't all just about the holidays. They're signals that BetaNews is publishing a positive story about Blu-ray. Mark the date in your calendars.
That was literally laugh-out-loud funny. Ask my co-workers :)
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|get back to work then! get off the internet ur boss is coming! :-)
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|Those bells you hear aren't all just about the holidays. They're signals that BetaNews is publishing a positive story about Blu-ray. Mark the date in your calendars.
Classic lead-in. Thanks for the giggle, Scott. :)
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|Two Primary Reasons it sold well:
1. It was a good movie and worth adding to any Home Collection.
2. The BR Version was on Sale most places for about $20.
The Price is the big hitch with BR right now. I have a PS3 and I own a few BR movies, but my issue is that some movies are $14 - $20 (Generally the BAD movies) and others are $25 - $40 (Most of these are the movies you actually want).
If the BR format can stay in the $20 - $25 range, they will find the sales will improve. Once you have the Hardware (PS3 or BR Player) all you need is the Software (Movies).
Bottom Line: Standardize the Price and BR will be here for a long time!
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