RSSThe netbook fraud: Truth, lies, and consequences in the PC market's hottest segment
By Carmi Levy | Published June 15, 2009, 2:03 PM
At first glance, today's netbook still looks like a laptop that spent a little too much time in the dryer. But after a few false starts and barely two years of serious evolution, netbooks have the first seriously unique market niche in hardware since laptops initially hit critical mass in the mid-'90s. And what's not to like about them? They're incredibly inexpensive, a lot easier on travellers' already overburdened shoulders and backs, and more than capable of handling the kind of routine work most of us churn through over the course of the average workday.
They're also ridiculously underpowered for anything beyond basic workflow like editing documents, managing e-mail, and accessing the Web. Their tiny, often laughably laid out keyboards make touch typing a fond memory. The small, low-resolution screens turn scrolling into a national sport -- which you'll probably want to avoid given the ergonomically frightening trackpads that are typically crammed wherever there's space. Battery capacity is lousy, too, often barely stretching beyond a couple of hours, if that much.
By the time you've upgraded the memory, battery, and storage to levels that allow you to do actual work while on the go, you've priced a netbook close to a low-end laptop. But that doesn't seem to be a deterrent.
IDC reports vendors sold seven times as many netbooks in Q1 of 2009 as they did the previous year, and predicts 22 million sold by the time the year is out. In a PC market marked by flatlining sales of conventional PCs, netbooks are a rare source of good news. As the economy continues to struggle and consumers increasingly seek inexpensive alternatives, these mini machines are poised for even greater market penetration.
But every silver cloud must have a dark lining. For Intel, its biggest fear -- cannibalization -- may already be coming true. The company's own global estimates show netbooks now accounting for 16% of overall notebook sales. The chipmaker, which makes the Atom processor that currently powers most netbooks, estimates that figure will soon edge toward 20%. In some European markets, it's already closer to 25%. Although Intel insists it makes a comfortable profit for each Atom sold, it's safe to assume quad core workstation chipsets haul in significantly more per unit. For a company used to selling higher-margin chipsets in full-blown machines, this erosion is a long-term challenge to profitability.
Like Intel, Microsoft finds itself in relatively new territory. Vista's a non-starter here because of its sheer girth, and its next-generation OS, Windows 7, won't be released until October at the earliest. Windows XP has become the de facto Microsoft netbook standard bearer in the interim. But Microsoft, which has been trying to kill its previous-generation OS for years now, can't be happy that it's forced to keep selling XP into this low-margin environment.
It won't get better long-term, either. Even when Windows 7 ships, the days of triple-digit profits for every copy of pre-loaded Windows will be history. In a world of $300 -- and declining -- machines, Microsoft needs to learn how to make do with a lot less profit per unit sold. This will affect its conventional OS strategies as well, as low OS pricing for netbooks undermines the value proposition of an OS on a full-fledged notebook or desktop PC.
The rise of open source is another cause of worry for Microsoft. Google, which never met a mobile market it didn't want to own, is moving aggressively to grab its own piece of the netbook pie. As well it should, since it doesn't have a legacy processor or chipset business to protect. Versions of Android, its operating system initially built for smartphones, are being prepared for release on netbooks later this year. Initial reviews are positive, pointing to snappy performance and stability. If Android and other open source Linux-based offerings gain any sort of traction, Microsoft's entire Windows franchise could join Intel's chip margins on the endangered species list.
Although this points to a rosy future for the diminutive machines, a bunch of things have to happen first before netbooks transition from cheap low end notebook alternatives to mobile productivity devices in their own right:
• Better connectivity. Although netbooks are mobility-enablers, most of them are still disconnected until they find a Wi-Fi hotspot. They need 3G, and they need a new cell phone-like purchasing model where customers who commit to a two-year data plan can have it for under $100 -- or ideally, for free. Although AT&T and Verizon have had some early success with this and are moving quickly to expand availability, it won't hit critical mass until more netbooks include 3G wireless capability standard.
• More power. Three-cell batteries that give up the ghost before the morning commute is over are so yesterday. Once battery runtimes approach the 5-6-hour range, netbooks can realistically be toted around all day without needing an outlet or an adapter.
• Improved UI. What works on a notebook doesn't always work when you're looking something up quickly before getting into the airport security line. User interfaces that require less scrolling and clicking -- perhaps taking a page or two from smartphones -- need to replace the traditional icon-based desktop paradigm.
• Human-scaled ergonomics. There's no reason netbook owners should risk personal injury from using the God-awful keyboards and trackpads that almost all of these devices have. Smaller form factors should represent an opportunity for hardware vendors to introduce innovative ways of interacting with devices (touchscreens, anyone?) instead of simply shrinking down existing hardware and hoping no one complains.
• Expanded capability. There's no reason why power-miserly processors need to be so wimpy. Future netbooks need more guts to support more than basic computing. Moore's Law should fix this in time, but it still needs to be a priority.
There's no question that netbooks hold a huge amount of promise. It's just as true that in many cases they've been hugely oversold. Still, once vendors figure out what buyers want -- and once buyers learn that these devices are a lot more than shrunken notebooks -- we'll all benefit from machines that more closely meet our rapidly evolving, hyper-connected needs.
Carmi Levy is a Canadian-based independent technology analyst and journalist still trying to live down his past life leading help desks and managing projects for large financial services organizations. He comments extensively in a wide range of media, and works closely with clients to help them leverage technology and social media tools and processes to drive their business.
As a software developer I've always opted for the biggest, baddest notebook I could lay my hands on. This includes my most recent ride of choice: A Dell Precision M6400 with a quad-core CPU, 12GB and RAID 0 - plus a monster Quadro FX3700M GPU under the hood. It was the ideal machines for someone who needed full-blown workstation power on the road (see my review of the M6400 at infoworld.com).
However, I also travel quite frequently between my primary residence in Florida and my second home in Mauritius - a 25-30 hour ordeal depending on the layover in Dubai. So, when InfoWorld assigned me the task of reviewing a roundup of "business class" netbooks, I was understandably curious as to what I'd find. After all, any chance to shed some weight - the aforementioned Precision LINO (Laptop in Name Only) clocks-in at 9.5lbs+ - while still getting work done en route was worth exploring.
But what I didn't expect was that I'd become completely hooked on the effortless mobility that these units provide. The HP Mini 2140, in particular, has been a joy to use. Equipped with 2GB of RAM, a 160GB 5400 RPM HDD and a 1366x768 pixel 10.1" screen, the Mini has proven to be a great netbook for running Windows 7 (currently using build 7260). And while I'm not about to run Visual Studio 2008, SQL Server 2008 or VMware Workstation 6.5.2 on it any time soon (though VirtualBox works just fine), I've found that virtually all other aspects of my daily workload - email, writing/editing, web browsing, downloading/viewing/listening to various digital media - has migrated to the Mini.
I've never been one to embrace a "two system" lifestyle - preferring instead to suffer the weight and have everything I need with me at all times. However, a month or so with the Mini 2140 changed all that. The battery life is excellent (2.5-3 hours on the three cell, or 6+ on the six cell), the keyboard is wonderful and the display is sharp and has enough resolution to cut-down on the scrolling. I'm now loathe to commit to any other system, and I will likely continue to use the Mini even when I'm in the office or at home - it's simply too convenient.
If you travel frequently, especially overseas, you owe it to yourself to ignore the ignorant blowhard who penned this column and check out the current crop of "business class" netbooks. If you need to know more, check out my roundup at the InfoWorld Test Center.
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|"They're also ridiculously underpowered for anything beyond basic workflow like editing documents, managing e-mail, and accessing the Web."
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That is the point and why they are popular. The size is convenient for travel to do quick tasks. NetBooks are not mean't to run Autocad or other intensive s/w. They perfect for what they do.
The writer seems to think that it is absolutely necessary to pack maximum power to run high demanding games etc. with netbooks. Perhaps in time as they evolve.
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|"They're also ridiculously underpowered for anything beyond basic workflow like editing documents, managing e-mail, and accessing the Web."
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i agree.
oddly enough, the netbooks could have more than adequate power and room to facilitate as over sized cell phones, black berries, gps, ebook and those pocket electronic game players all the kids like.
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|I wouldn't mind a netbook if it could play Counterstrike Source or WOW @40fps with 4hour battery life and 10" 1280x800 screen (ooyeahhh!) I do like the idea of netbooks/notebooks with GPS and 3G/cellphone built-in as a feature. As my needs are also evolving, I wouldn't mind carrying a small netbook to replace my cellphone altogether. It would be very convenient, especially those always on the move.
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|i have always thought and will continue to think that netbooks are nothing more than a fad and a waste of money.
maybe when they can act like cellular phones, they will have some chance against the black berries, iphones, etc..
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|Truly I say to you, dear friend, that too much tech reading has driven you mad. When I talk to my lovely daughter, who, bless her heart, plays a stringed instrument much like that of Mozart's time, I tell her that the next great revolution in green transportation that runs on biofuel is the ever reliable horse. Get thee one, and a chalk board.
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|I was looking for a netbook. Though, I am still waiting for one that would actually fits my needs.
It would need 3G connectivity with SIM card system built-in so that I can use it at any country.
A GPS built-in, it would be nice to check on my location and use it as a navigator.
Touch screen is also a must.
Last, I hope that heat problem can be fixed.
I am not sure when this kind of netbook would become reality, but I am sure whichever OS that is running such netbook, I will go with a PDA that is running the same brand of OS. Since I am really tired of compatibility issue. As if Apple comes out with one first... I would really put a second thought about it, since I don't really like how they are charging for software or updates.
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|Gotta love all the folk knocking this excellent bit of reporting, all appear to be the proud owners of a newly purchased netbook or two. So if I'd just fallen in with the crowd, and spent all my hard earned on a bit of rickety gear, I'd be shouting foul too. Betcha all wish you'd saved up and bought a proper laptop like the one I've got.
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|Logically, wouldn't someone who actually owns and used it for a while one be better at assessing its capabilities?
I had a choice. One I still don't regret.
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|I don't think Carmi has touched a netbook in over a year if he's going to write this shoddy inaccurate analysis. He needs to get some actual hands on experience before he starts giving people advice.
The Asus 1008HA weighing in at just 2.4 pounds has a mere 3-cell 31 watt*hour battery is getting 5 hours and 50 minutes in my Wi-Fi web surfing tests browsing two web pages at 30 second page flips with flash content. It also got 4 hours and 20 minutes in my DivX playback test and the netbook is capable of playing back 720P content with a good codec pack like K-Lite mega codec pack and Windows Media Player. The 1000HE with 6-cell battery got close to 7 hours in DivX playback in my hands on review.
http://www.notebooks.com...4/08/asus-1000he-review/
Both netbooks have everything you need and cost $430 and $399 list price respectively.
Now when is the last time you've gotten a typical budget 14" or 15.4" notebook to get this kind of battery life? When was the last time your notebook weighed 2.4 pounds and fit in a lady's purse?
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|Who is this dope? Has he not visited a Best Buy recently?
6 cell batteries are becoming the norm.
WiMAX and 3G are increasing availability.
Some netbooks have the quickbook linux option for a user-friendly interface to do a quick access of the internet.
10.1" netbooks, now the norm, have quite comfortable keyboards.
Touchscreen? Are you serious? There are so many netbooks which offer touchscreen.
GAC...GET A CLUE!
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|Are you kidding?
Battery life is already past 7-8 hours on the Asus 9 and 10" models - and has been for sometime. My one year-old Asus 1000H already has a claimed 7-hour battery life, which realistically provides 6 hours continous use on the wi-fi in the office. This is already leagues better than any other full-size laptop we've used and tested, who typically claim 3-4 hours and deliver about 90 minutes.
Another error: the 1000H had a 92% keyboard - I've had no trouble touch-typing on it. Further to that, it also had a big, multi-touch trackpad - a trackpad bigger than many full-sized notebooks. Seriously, what crappy brand netbooks are you talking about that still have these deficits?
I'm sorry, Carmi, but your article might have been relevant with the early Celeron-based 7" jobbies back in 2007. With the exception of 3G, we've had the technological 'upgrades' you still want for over a year. Get with the program.
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|I think the author wrote this article like...1 year ago, and BetaNews had it in queue for a long time now...lol.
As you said, battery life of 5, 6 and even 7 hours is now becoming the norm. After the EeePC 1000HE and its 9.5 hour claim (more like 7-7.5 with general use), other makers have been scrambling to make their own products with 6 cell batteries that don't jut out the back of the unit. And right now there are at least 4 or 5 products on the market, from different companies, that boast 6+ hour battery life.
Haha, completely agree on the keyboard comment. I have a 1000HE (i think the same size as your 1000H) and the keyboard is perfectly fine. Keyboard sizes have been much improved since the advent of 10.1" netbooks. The days of 8-9" screens are wayyyyy over.
The author's comment on connections is uninformed too. All netbooks have wireless, obviously. Most of them have bluetooth. And there are a handful of quality products which offer an option of 3G, WiMAX, or something similar. How do you think AT&T is able to offer a free netbook with the purchase of a mobile broadband contract? Magic?
Are you serious about the touchscreen comment? There are several netbooks with touchscreen. Jesus, get with the times!
Improved UI....you do know that there are a handful of units which offer linux quick-boot options, right? e.g. Sony Vaio P.
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|I doubt this writer understands the whole purpose of a netbook. Its not for playing games or for doing all you can with a regular PC. For most people who own one, I would gather its a second PC to carry around and use for blogging or writing in general, and some web work among other things.
There may be people buying them to replace a regular PC and I think they are in the wrong, but netbooks from what I can have enough power to do exactly what they indeed to be able to do.
I am even considering one myself. I am put off buy a hefty notebook as I don't need another full PC, but would enjoy being able to access the net other places for mostly net surfing. It just might fit the bill for me - even with the small screen which I admit does need some help.
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|My brother is purchasing an Acer netbook even though I offered him a free custom built desktop computer. I believe he's among the many who don't understand the limitations of netbooks. I agree with you completely. He bought his netbook, hooked it to his ISP, and it ran faultlessly.
If he's happy, I'm happy. He also said it was much faster than the desktop he previously used. Go figure?
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|"Once battery runtimes approach the 5-6-hour range"
Be fair! The standard battery life is on par with many notebooks' standard batteries. If you want better and longer battery life on your notebook or netbook, don't be stingy - upgrade to a higher power battery!
"Although AT&T and Verizon have had some early success with this and are moving quickly to expand availability, it won't hit critical mass until more netbooks include 3G wireless capability standard."
Are you saying the 3G community needs netbooks with 3G capability to hit critical mass?
What about us 3G mobile phone or notebook users?? Don't we count? In any case, one doesn't need 3G built-in: I am writing this on my Samsung N120 (which comes with Atom N280, 10.1" LCD w/ LED backlight, 160GB drive, 2GB RAM, 802.11b/g/n Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 2.1, chargeable USB, and 10 hours of battery life running Windows - not far off from Samsung's claim of 11 hours of use), and through a USB 3G modem with unlimited access plan for $25/mth, and 3G connection with peak speeds of 21Mbps unlimited access for $69 is already commercially available.
"cheap low end notebook alternatives"
Wasn't the price/size/performance combination the main reason for the original netbook? The original EeePC was cheap but with most home users not adopting to Linux, the demand for Windows was overwhelming; some users even resorted to install their own Windows. Bundling OEM Windows obviously jacked up the price of the products, and now some netbooks are appearing with price tags edging towards the cheapest of notebooks, and for what? Nearly absolutely no difference from the last generation of netbooks, and may be a 12" display!
"touchscreens, anyone?"
You mean a tablet notebook running Windows XP but of the size of a netbook? UMPC tablet notebooks of that size have been with us for years, thanks to the Japanese; the question is: at about twice the cost of an average netbook, are you willing to pay the price?
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|I would make one point that some with more knowledge may disagree and that deals with the last point:
"• Expanded capability. There's no reason why power-miserly processors need to be so wimpy. Future netbooks need more guts to support more than basic computing. Moore's Law should fix this in time, but it still needs to be a priority."
The problem that I see, from my limited perspective is that more power generally equates to more heat which equates to a greater need for fans or heatsink. If this is the case than if you move in this direction, you quickly reach a point when you have to ask netbook or notebook. Price point would have to go up on the netbook.
If I am off-base on this thought, I welcome counterpoints and "lacey Panties" are optional:)
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|Get this paid shill off of here. My god, this Microsoft propaganda is out of control. See the underlying message..."low cost small notebook PC." This shill cracks me up. So pathetic.
There is nothing wrong with netbooks unless you are a company who sells bloated, outrageously overpriced OS's like Microsoft. Microsoft is rightly scared of netbooks. A nice Asus netbook running Android for under $200 would kill Microsoft on the low end. That is why they had to pull out the big guns and get Asus to pull said netbook from the floor of Computex. Even if they could keep in that low end market, they would not be able to continue the fat Microsoft tax on every machine. And Apple owns the mid to high end so, they lose out the low end, they are screwed.
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|Well, then they would have to remove you too. Apple owns the mid to high range would be something a "Shill" would say. You have absolutely no facts on that.
My i7 machine is very high end. :)
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|Let me educate you, and i will even do it with a story from Betnews...
http://www.betanews.com/...nd-PC-market/1211311089
Yes, Apple does own the mid to high end market.
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|Ahh, you mean the high-end overpaid market. ok then.
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|Nah, Microsoft has the high end, overpriced software end all to itself. How much does that single user license of Windows cost? Won't even touch the out of this universe pricing on Office.
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|For me, Vista Business is $10/copy, XP Pro is $8/copy, and Office 2007 Pro Plus is $20/copy. And if any new versions come out in 2 years, we get them for free. Windows 7 will be free for us, like how Office 2007 was.
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|For me shopping at Best Buy (check their website):
* Vista Ultimate is: $319.99 (single user)
* Office Professional 2007 is: $499.99 (single user)
Just for fun...
* OSX Leopard is: $129 (single user), $199 (five user)
* Apple iWork 09 is: $79 (single user), $99 (five user license)
And....
* Ubuntu is $0
* Open Office is $0
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|I love my Aspire One (80 gig hd) and I don't think that its underpowered, though I do have it hooked up to my 32" LCD HDTV, external 500 gig HD, and a DVD burner as well as my 15 Mbps cable internet connection..... :-) It does exactly what I want. At the end of this month I'm getting another gig of RAM put.
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|Funny, I thought long(er) battery life was one of the pluses of the existing netbook options. Like, oh I dunno, the ridiculously popular Eee PCs at 7-9 hours. Sure, this is a manufacturer quote for battery life, but believe it or not I've actually found them to be pretty accurate in real-world use. I've easily gone 7 hours on an Eee.
Quite honestly I also think you overestimate some of the other issues here. Admittedly 10" is the top end of the netbook form factor, but it's also the sweet spot in my opinion. A near-full-size keyboard which you can get used to typing on very easily, decent trackpad, and screen resolution that - due to its width - measures up well enough when dealing with the average content load of web pages (still mostly designed for 1024 pixel width) and word docs. And all in a package weighing less than 3 pounds. I'm really not sure the form factor can get *that* much more appealing without being some other form factor altogether (e.g. bigger for a bigger display, smaller for even more portability).
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|I understand if this fool doesn't like the netbooks , But We have been selling and supporting the hell out of them and EVERYBODY wants one , that is of course we are only dealing with the Linux varieties.
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|Well neither he, nor I, want one, so your preposterous statement that everyone does is complete bollocks.
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|"(touchscreens, anyone?)"
The Dell Latitude 2100 business line has the option for a touch screen.
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|My partner bought an HP netbook. What a disaster! It died after just three weeks and was away for servicing for 3 months! During that time we were informed by the service agent that they went through another two motherboards before they found one that worked. We love the convenience of the netbook, and it is perfect for cafès and travel but the keyboard is too fiddly for serious work. Also, wireless seems hopeless compared to our laptops.
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|If they went through another 2 motherboards (making 3) then you should ask for a complete refund. That's the usual amount of same-piece-of-hardware replacement before they officially don't know what's wrong and you can get a full refund. 3 months away is also unacceptable unless they plan on extending your warranty another 3 months.
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