Vista Delay a Minor Factor in PC Sales

By Ed Oswald | Published March 27, 2006, 2:36 PM

The delayed launch of Windows Vista will have a limited effect on PC shipments in 2006, and may actually help to boost sales slightly in 2007, research firm IDC said Monday. Overall, PC shipments should grow at a ten percent or higher rate through 2008, the firm said.

IDC's comments came as part of its Quarterly PC Tracker forecast of the industry. The firm is now more optimistic about sales through 2008, saying growth should remain above 10.5 percent. Previously, IDC had expected growth to fall below 10 percent beginning in 2007.

Vista's delay would not have a broad effect due to the fact that most consumers had already replaced their PCs, along with increasing sales of laptop computers. The group also said business adoption would likely be much slower than on the consumer side.

"Some consumers will certainly delay PC purchases until Vista is available, but we expect the delay to shift only moderate volume from the fourth quarter of 2006 into 2007 and will not cause a loss of sales," Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker director Loren Loverde said.

Loverde said the question was not whether consumers would buy new PCs, but when they would make those purchases. IDC also expects to see companies provide attractive incentives to upgrade -- even though the operating system is not ready for release.

Notebook computers are increasingly becoming the American consumer's PC of choice. Desktop PC growth has slowed considerably, the firm says, and this is due to falling prices in notebooks, as well as better performance and battery life and widescreen displays.

"This surge is contributing to the pace of overall notebook adoption and will likely bring closer the day that notebooks out ship desktops in the U.S," IDC's personal computing senior analyst Richard Shim said.

Comments

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Well I just purchased a new PC with a dual Core 4200 AMD, 64 Bit system so I could install Win Vista 64 Bit... So I guess I ain't one of they average users. I was kind of looking forward to purchasing a new O/S. Tired of XP's Fisher Price look and feel. Although it does run kind of sweet on my box. XP Pro is nice but I still prefer some of the Windows 2000 Features that was lost when I installed WinXP Pro, such as the abiltiy to set permissions across my network on Win2000.

I guess I could just run WindowBlinds...

Anyways... just my thought on the matter, some of us would like something new to play around with.

Have a good one. :o)

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"The delayed launch of Windows Vista will have a limited effect on PC shipments in 2006, and may actually help to boost sales slightly in 2007, research firm IDC said Monday."

Spin doctors...

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"The delayed launch of Windows Vista will have a limited effect on PC shipments in 2006, and may actually help to boost sales slightly in 2007, research firm IDC said Monday."

Spin doctors... "
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What would you have them say? Or do you just like to gripe about Microsoft?

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I distinctly remember an article last week stating exactly the opposite of this report... that Vista's delay would RUIN holiday sales.

Frankly, I think if a PC Maker relies on an OS to market its systems, something must be wrong with the PC.

Anyone want to place wagers on whether or not Dell's low-end systems will finally see 512MB become the "standard" configuration instead of their wimpy 256MB?

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By the time Vista comes out 512MB will be considered "wimpy".

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512mb isnt enough either unless they have 128-256mb on their graphics card(not integrated).

Who is their tech supervisor? I have seen 128mb on laptops from them. What a joke.

EDIT:
I am happy to see that the ones offered in Best Buy and the like do have sufficeint memory capacities - and still classified as beginner machines. HP has come a long way since there beginning and would run one of their against a Dell anytime. I have worked on many and see the changes they have made and as DELL and Intel I see a lot of HP and AMD. These two can become great competitors as they are number 1 and 2 respectively.

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lmao..

Newsflash: It already is.

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For a technical or advanced user, this is absolutely true. I do not believe it is necessarily true for the casual email-reading/web-surfing/word-processing user, however, providing they're not running a zillion task-tray icons and services.

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Actually, open up task manager. Look at the resources you are using. I bet you don't have much more than about 300 meg in use..

512 Meg may be the standard, because cheap prices is pushing us to THINK its needed, but its not.

I have 1 gig myself, and everyday I run various apps, very rarely does my memory every go over 400 meg in use, and I run many programs at once.. games, widgets, desktop apps, browsers, I keep everything I use daily open all the time...

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Now disable your pagefile and do the same thing....

I have 3 apps open on my desktop, and 2 in the sys-tray.

My pagefile alone is 336MB right now, not to mention the physical RAM, which is sitting at about 494MB (System Cache) right now.

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Wow are you really a tech? You don't disable the paging file, Windows is designed to use the paging file. Proper size is 1.5 times that of RAM. that's normal.

But you don't SET it, you let windows manage it. and yes, it grows. You need to read up on paging file, some things MUST be paged, you can't get around it.. well you can, but you risk system instability.

The page file use is increased by DLL's and other libraries. The pagefile sits from the last time you rebooted, it doesn't shrink.. unless you have the system purge it each time.

The other thing you can do is use a program to Tweak windows, so it doesn't page the kernel (which is probably why yours is so big) and turn off unnecessary services.

You just open a machine, take the default OS, and start adding things don't you?

The best way is to install a FRESH OS, and install ONLY apps you use, you don't take the system OS... At least not for business use, you are just asking for trouble.

494.. is system cache, but that too can be tweaked..

Wow, I thought you were good.. this is remedial tech stuff.. I don't even have the time to figure out what you could be missing on your machine, but I will wager is A LOT!

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Actually it is bad practice to let windows manage your page file. It is the easy way out, but I dont recommend it. Letting windows manage the paging file will lead to some performance issues if you are running for example games or multiple memory intesive applications like video editing or photo editing.

The resizing and filling of the page file can cause some serious fragmentation. The best practice is as follows.

1. Make a separate partition on your harddrive or use a separate HD for your page file.
2. Make it a fixed size. 1.5x your memory.

I say a separate HD, because applications like video editing, and or games need to use the PF alot and having that pf closests to the center of the HD platter will grant you some increased performance as opposed to having it all over the place.

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"Wow are you really a tech?"

Silly boy...

"But you don't SET it, you let windows manage it."

Unless you actually *know* what you're doing.]

"it doesn't shrink.. unless you have the system purge it each time."

Bingo!

"The other thing you can do is use a program to Tweak windows, so it doesn't page the kernel (which is probably why yours is so big) and turn off unnecessary services."

DisablePagingExecutive is too easy, man. I have a regfile I built that is the first thing I run on every new install. Handles the pagefile settings, memory management, etc. Child's Play.

"The best way is to install a FRESH OS, and install ONLY apps you use, you don't take the system OS"

I offer the same advice to everyone I can.

"this is remedial tech stuff"

I agree 100% and have to wonder why you thought addressing used physical memory was *any* indication of what a system needs to perform well, considering it can address a virtually unlimited amount of it via the pagefile.

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It has been my experience that the average home user has no desire to upgrade their operating system... much less re-install all their applications and games. While the OS savvy types may find this an easy task, the average home user will run into a variety of issues that will lead to much heartache and frustration.

When I see that IDC "so called research company" says it will have little impact makes me wonder where they are getting their statistics. If I were looking to buy a PC for Christmas and was informed that a new OS version would be released in January the following year, Sorry.... I will wait another month. I feel certain that most people would do the same. With that said, there goes the Q4 sales for most PC retailers.

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1.) Most average home users don't even know MS is "on the verge" of releasing a new OS. They will blithley purchase a new PC knowing not a thing about the new OS that *doesn't even exist yet*.

2.) If they do know, it is very likely they will get an "upgrade coupon" along with their system well before Vista is released. As I recall, 4 months before the product went RTM, OEMs were offering these for 95, 98, ME, 2000, and XP. I would not be the least bit suprised to see this happen again. Also, remember that RTM comes before the retail releases... So it's one way an "average" user can get one ahead of the game.

This won't hurt PC sales a bit, nor will it affect the adoption of Vista in the least.

Again, the "average home user" does not have a clue about Vista. They don't know it's in the works, they don't know about the new technologies, they don't eagerly, or otherwise, await it. They don't know, therfore, they do not care.

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most "average home users" think XP is the last one ever .... and when you mention vista they say
"whats that ?"
after a brief explanation, they answer with the typical
"is that office and all my programs ?"

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LOL!

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So very, very true...

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Have you forgotten that with the advent of the internet, people are making more informed decissions? The average person reads reviews on products, more now, than ever. I disagree with your assement.

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Yeah, but ask this question to your mother/grand mother. You think they will really see the difference?

Doubtful. XP is fine. I know this is linear progression in the MS world, because they have to keep pushing otherwise they can't make money, but XP has been very solid. Vista is going to be a tough sell any way you look at it.

Let's not forget the history of OS, it takes companies about 2 years to adopt a new OS.

And you even said BUYING a NEW PC. How often do people buy a new pc? informed decisions includes doing research on hardware that won't be obsolete in 2 years either.. People buy something they can upgrade, so they don't HAVE to buy a new PC. The new PC market has been slowly dwindling...

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Have you forgotten that unless pushed people won't do *anything* more than absolutely necessary to get by?

The average person does not keep up on anything that isn't hand-fed to them.

"I disagree with your assement."...indeed.

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"People buy something they can upgrade"

Yeah, those Dell's are just so darn "upgradeable", aren't they?

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Actually, they are..

You know, you don't have to use a Dell, you can just go buy a gateway, what does it matter, you are just going to install whatever it comes with anyway...

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I use Dells at work exclusively. I gotta wonder what you mean when you say "upgradeable"..

Swapping out the mainboard/PWS in those things (At least the business models) is a downright nightmare...especially if you want something other than Dell supplied hardware in it.

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Maybe I only saw it alot because I'm a PC tech support guy...but wasn't XP shipped on PC's before you could buy it separately as well? And didn't many PC manufacturers offer a "Free Windows XP Upgrade" for PC's that shipped a month or so before XP was released? I bet they'll do that again--come October or November, PC vendors will sell PC's with Windows XP pre-installed, but provide coupons to allow to "transfer" to a Vista license free of charge. If so, I can definately agree that PC sales may not be much worse than if it was released this year.

We also need to remember that when XP was first coming out there were alot of people that specifically did NOT want it. I've used Windows 2000 almost as much as XP and it may be inferior, but the stability of Windows 2000 with SP4 is astounding. Businesses could not change the OS instantly over to XP anyway--it was too unknown and untested. Remember that businesses and such cannot simply upgrade to Vista OS the day it comes out either!

Yeah, businesses rule the PC market. This delay won't be as big of a deal on PC sales as it first appears. Only a handful of home users will care.

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...

The PC Rat is absolutely amazed at how many home users, and small office users, are still running Win98.

And on "old" machines !

Microsoft has failed to generate excitement for it's latest Operating Systems.

Which is what you would expect when it takes over a half-decade for them to market a new one !

People lose interest.
...

The Computer Rodent

...

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this is what i think. the regular pc user thinks that i pc is like a car. you could just go by using an old car. and when you go to fix them they want you to do magic to get then running

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The PC_Tool wonders why the PC-Rat is referring to himself in the 3rd person...

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Well he is a rat afterall... they don't exactly have the highest mental cognitive abilities. You can train a rat to run a maze and play basic games, but anything else is pushing your luck, lol.

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LMAO...

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OMFGROTFFLMFAO

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WTFAUTA???

OK let's stop...

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Oh My F***in God Roling on the F***in floor laughing my f***in a** off!

duh

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Its not 3rd person, its from the perspective of the desktop..

The PC rat likes to be part of his computer.. that's my guess.

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I think the PC rat is correct. The Microsoft has failed to generate the excitement for the latest OS for the average consumer.

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So essentially for the first time in the history of MS OS's, consumers are buying an upgrade to a machine that will likely have the same OS they had previously.

huh. I know we were waiting to buy a new OS. with no new office, and no new OS, why should we buy a new system now? everything is working fine the way it is now. Guess small frys like us make no difference.

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The system I bought 5 years ago with XP won't run the latest games very well. A CPU upgrade at the very least is a must, and since 939pin boards weren't out 5 years ago, it looks like a barebones upgrade, at the minimum.

So....

$400 for Case, PWS, Mobo, CPU, and RAM, or $600 for a brand-new system (no monitor)?

It's a tough question for me, but a very easy one for the not-so-technically inclined.

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We have a majority of our PC's being a PIII Dell 933 512M, and they run all apps we need them to fine. They are all at least 4 years old. I don't see anything coming down the pipeline that will change that.

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For businesses, I am sure you are right, though, if you have anywhere near 100 of them, you might want to look into 3-yr leasing programs.

For home users, however, it's a different picture. 933Mhz doesn't cut it for *most* of the current games out there, and 512MB will bog *any* Windows XP system running multiple apps.

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"and 512MB will bog *any* Windows XP system running multiple apps."

On that issue I beg to differ. My GAMING PC had 512MB RAM until 4 months ago--ran Star Wars KOTOR games with no problems. It's memory management that helps. Uninstall the apps you don't use, run msconfig and disable all but needed processes, disable those 6 or so Microsoft processes you never use, never ever use Adobe Acrobat Reader browser plugins, never use Security Suite or System Works (AV is usually all you need--SP2 provides good enough firewall), and delete the data in that prefetch folder.

BTW a Raptor HDD helps too since it flies when using your page file :)

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3yr leasing programs? But why? it's precisely why we don't use a 3yr program that we save thousands a year. We are basically seeing 90% reduction in costs with little functionality difference by sticking with W2K. The only thing that dies on these machines are HDD's, and those are backed up nightly.

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FYI, it is unnecessary to delete anything in the prefetch folder. Doing so neither helps nor hinders performance except that the next load of the program might add a couple seconds recreate the prefetch info that you deleted.

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Psshh!! Whatever... I see students at my college run their systems with 256MB all the time! :) Granted, it's slow and crashes a lot, and they don't understand that you get what you pay for, but hey that's their problem.

512MB is a decent start for serious use, and more is preferable if you are a heavy user. Either way, your RAM consumption is minimized more by reducing the crap loading on startup and sitting in your task tray.

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it is exemplary, how they have fought saturation.

just make gfx better.
i c conspiracy.

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Er...?

Thanks for the lesson? ;)

Never said you couldn't get by on 256 or 512. You basically restated what I said, it can be done, but there will be issues.

Nice to see we're in agreement. :P

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Accounting. Leased systems fall into a different bracket than "owned" office equipment. Talk to purchasing or accounting. It makes a very large difference.

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lmao...

Beg all you want.

Should I perhaps have specified,

"*any* Windows XP system ruinning multiple apps in it's default configuration without the loving care of a technically inclined individual such as yourself"?

...because in the "Real" world, there ain't one person buying a Compaq or Gateway that's going to

"run msconfig and disable all but needed processes, disable those 6 or so Microsoft processes you never use, never ever use Adobe Acrobat Reader browser plugins, never use Security Suite or System Works (AV is usually all you need--SP2 provides good enough firewall), and delete the data in that prefetch folder."

Knowing the tools exist help, ya know?

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Indeed! :)

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I did talk with them. The accounting difference only matters if you have caap expenditures of a certain monetary limit, we are nowhere near that limit, so it makes no benefit to us financially to lease. leasing is very expensive in other ways: shipping burden is on you, keeping machines in pristine shape (cosmetically) is your responsibility, it costs you more in the long run. I don't disagree with you for larger companies to lease, but smaller/medium sized shops save quite a bit by not leasing. it also lets us negotiate pricing each buying cycle. If I don't like dell, I can go HP or Polywell easily.

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i am going to kill you with this one. i am running xp with a 445mgz amd and 188 of ram. and a 7 gb hard drive.

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512 is most sufficient for the average user. Go to Tomshardware and look at benchmark testing for memory, the threshold his at 256 not 512. Anything above 512 is negligible gain in use.

The key is graphics for games, CPU for desktop apps. If you upgrade both, you can keep the memory at 512. You make it seem like 512 is now what 64 was like with Windows 98.. like its barely manageable.

512 is the sweet spot. More memory is icing..

If you defrag, run a cache program that reclaims memory, good graphics card, and a 2.8 gig plus CPU, you are golden. Memory is the least of the problems, it starts with good desktop hardware management.

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Excellent points GT2L

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crashing and freezing has to do more with the Apps rather than lack of memory. Slowness is a sign of insufficient memory, not out of control apps.

I don't care if you have 12 gig machine running quad processors all scsi it will still crash if you have apps that are not well maintained.

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Sweet! The mainstream speaks!

And how do you like your performance?

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OK, you need to stick with Tech Specs and not go into financial analysis. If an economics professor or an accountant can see you now..

Want to buy some beach front property in LA? Its only a 3 year lease.

Leases.. are a TERRIBLE idea. Its for the uninformed, weakling that doesn't know how to manage their money that thinks leasing is attractive. You lease your car too?

Leasing is bad financing. Very bad. You don't need to give financial advice..

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Depends if you want capital or not. Maybe your accountants are from some community college. Leased systems is one of the worst investments a company can make.

Why don't you google it? Lease vs Buy. Its real simple. Leasing is NOT good long term investment. AND you don't even own the equipment when you are done..

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Bingo, ding ding ding!!

and not to mention, clean up that registry.. I use Registry Mechanic.

The firewall, needs to be hardware, not software though.. What if the firewall app gets contaminated? you are compromising your system..

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Again, I have stated it before, I will say again.

I support many people. I EDUCATE them on HOW to do JUST that. Maybe all you care about is that you fix things, but I like to tell people HOW they can make their machines better.

So my people do run msconfig, update their machines, know how to run defrag.. if they want their machines running smoothly..

MY people do know the tools exist, is it too hard to explain to them? Its not for me, maybe you have people skill problems...

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lmao..

Apparently, neither do you.

:) Leased equipment is entirely different than owned equipment does as far as expenses go. Seriously. Look it up, man. Why do you think so many businesses are going this route? Because they are uninformed? No, because it's cheaper. They may have zero ability when it comes to tech, but money they know.

[edit: Big businesses. My original post stated a base of 100 systems, at least)

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"crashing and freezing has to do more with the Apps.."

Duh?

But the simple fact that the apps are requiring more memory to run well doesn't argue my point, it supports it. :)

Bad apps exist, but most of those that have problems in systems with minimal amounts of RAM tend to do much better with 512 or better.

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Did I say it was impossible?

Now, open MS Word 2003, minimize it, open Outlook and keep it running in the background. Now open IE or whatever browser you prefer.

How's that system running now?

Care to play a game? ;)

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Yet you're gonna keep that ancient 486 around forever because you "own" it?

Please... Discarding that old crap, in some states, can cost quite a bit. Especially for a large company.

Owning something doesn't make it worthwhile. After a 3 year lease, I get a new system...no extra cost. What do you have? A 3yr old system worth pennies now.

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Good points. Smaller businesses don't need to, and should not do this.

My original response used a base of 100 systems. Obvisouly, if you are under that, you'd definately want to check out alternatives.

BTW: Shipping? We don'y pay for that on our leases....apparently some are better than others. :)

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thanks for assuming I don't.

While I am very happy for YOU and YOUR people...

The *vast* majority of people will still run into problems...we cannot possibly reach the majority.

YOUR people don't make the majority, neither do MINE. That's not the point. The point, is that for most folks, 256MB isn't gonna cut it.

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100 systems, 1000 systems, 10000 systems, the math is the same, buddy.

Its still bad financing..

Fine you lease, get ripped off, what do I care?

But you should give advice for stuff you don't understand.

Leasing is bad business, period.

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Oh so now you are changing your tune.. first you said 512 bogs a system down..

NOW its 512 or better? Is your middle name Sybil?

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No but after that 3 year lease runs out, then what? You don't even have the option to keep it and see how it works out, you have to make a decision, pay more money to the leasing company... or pay for it the beginning and you don't even have to worry about it.

What do you have, more payments! you like throwing your money away? go ahead. You get a new machine, whether you need it or not.

You just keep that revolving payment going, Visa, M/C and leasing companies must love you.. Why don't you just give them your checking account while you are at it..

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So you are arguing with his assessment now?

Dude, QUIT giving financial advice.. or wait, after those technical explanations regarding memory and desktops earlier, maybe you should switch careers...

We don't pay for shipping either.. its called "package deal". You pay for shipping, its part of that revolving credit card.. They aren't going to make you pay for something that's not yours.. you are LEASING..hello.. of course you don't pay shipping.. its built into the contract.

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Wait I dont' need to assume, you said as much, when you said that *...because in the "Real" world, there ain't one person buying a Compaq or Gateway that's going to *

That assumes you didn't explain it. Are you a lease? When is your lease up? You assume that the sales person or tech that helped them make a purchase, didn't explain to them either..

We can't reach the majority? Are you cynical or just retarded? We have the internet, we have news groups, we have email, we have professional sites like CNET and Betanews, and we CAN'T reach the majority? WTF!!

Either you forgot you are using a site that's accessible by everyone on the planet, or you are too lazy to try to do your part.

I never said my people were the majority, I said that I educate at every chance, they can tell someone, and they tell someone else, eventually the word gets around..

I never said 256 would cut it, I said 512 is sufficient (for the vast majority), there is a difference.

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"No but after that 3 year lease runs out, then what?"

We get a new PC without having paid the full price of the one it is replacing. :)

We've been doing this for over 200 system (in our complex alone) for about 8 years now. Our annual costs per PC have dropped by as much as 30 percent, but you need to keep in mind that we have always replced our usints in 3 year cycles. We have *never*, before leasing, or after, had a PC on this premesis longer than 3 years.

We pay less in the long-term, we get preferential support, and are never stuck with outdated hardware.

I fail to see the problem, and really cannot understand why you are having such trouble understanding this...

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Did you read his comment?

...about shipping?

He claimed it had to be paid. I replaied that it was included in our leasing terms.

You really just like arguing with me for the hell of it, don't you?

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1.) I cannot possibly be expected to educate everyone buying a PC from gateway and compaq. Assume whatever the hell you wish.

2.) You actually think the majority of internet users have even *heard* of Betanews? Hell, C|Net? And what about the folks buying a PC for the first time?

3.) 512 will work fine for only the most basic of use. No java, and cutting out unused services will improve it. Trying to do anything more than run 2, maybe 3 apps, and you're pushing it. Areyou telling me a system with more than 512 will not perform better than 512 with Word, Outlook, IE, and AV utils running? You're joking, right?

And do you *have* to resort to insults every topic you post in? I mean, it's actually somewhat fun to argue with you...until you start to drop to that level again.

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lmao..

Wow.

512 orbetter

Yeah, it'll run on 512, hell it'll run on 256, but it will very likely run better with more.

I'm sorry, perhaps I should explain "bogs down":

A system running MS Word, MS Outlook, IE, and various security utilities in the background will run and react slower on a 512MB system as opposed to a system with 1GB. Thus the 512 system would be "bogged down" compared to the system with 1GB.

Yes, it's do-able. But it's slower than it could be. Not by an un-noticeable degree, either, but by a large margin if you happen to be running a 512MB system on one desk and a 1GB on the other.

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"Fine you lease, get ripped off, what do I care?"

I do.

I don't.

I don't really care if you do or not, but I can't answer as to why. Never been much for psychoanalysis, and if I were, it would pobably be best to not start with you. ;)

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