Yahoo Results Raise Questions on Ad Viability

By Scott M. Fulton, III | Published October 18, 2006, 12:20 PM

Last week, the question many analysts were asking openly was, why didn't Yahoo purchase YouTube when it had the chance? Today, investors are asking instead whether that chance ever really existed.

While Yahoo continues to make more money -- in fact, $1.58 billion, which is 19% more than it did during the third quarter of 2005 -- its cost of revenues and operating expenses rose, contributing to 37% lower net revenues for Q3 2006 than for Q3 2005. Net income for the quarter just ended was only $158 million, down from $253 million for this quarter a year ago.

Yahoo chairman and CEO Terry Semel just came right out with it yesterday afternoon: "While we are tremendously excited about many things happening at Yahoo!, we are not satisfied with our third quarter financial performance. We continued to grow and believe that we outperformed the graphical market but not at a rate that met our expectations."

In other words, if you look at the tick on a chart, it's not at the angle you'd expect it to be.

Thanks to a couple of factors, gross profit actually did rise - up 13% over the year-ago quarter, to $899 million. But those factors aren't exactly what investors might expect. Although Yahoo is perceived as an advertising company, and even though it continues to tout its upcoming "Project Panama" as the new ad platform that will drive the company, you might be surprised to learn that advertising fees only account for 13% of its revenue.

Marketing services -- where Yahoo helps businesses to gain visibility through such things as "search monetization" -- are its core business. Yahoo reaps $1.37 billion in revenue from such services, versus only $210 million from direct advertising fees.

In the previous three quarters, Yahoo saw annual revenue gains of 34%, 26% and 19%, over the same quarters in 2005. The big problem is cash flow, which describes how readily those revenue gains are being put to work. After gains of 15% and 6% in the previous two quarters of this year, Yahoo's cash flow from operating activities is now down 11% over the prior year's quarter, to $390 million.

Yahoo isn't hurting yet, by anyone's observation; the problem is, it's proving the notion that in a volatile economy, advertising is the most sensitive business to be in. Investment analysts were intrigued enough by Tuesday's news of Yahoo's new ad platform to overlook the company's down-tick in guidance for the fourth quarter.

On Tuesday, Yahoo let it "leak" that Project Panama was now out of the basement, and operational. This gave at least a hopeful rhythm to the company's fourth-quarter guidance, not unlike hearing ragtime jazz at a Louisiana funeral.

But if gas prices return to free-fall, and consumer confidence declines again like it did last September, retailers' reticence to make big investments in getting their message out, could impact Panama - perhaps now doubly so. Whether Yahoo's numbers yesterday had a lasting impact on investors over a 24-hour period, however, may be determined on Thursday, when Google follows up with its quarterly numbers after the close of stocks trading that afternoon.

Comments

View comments by with a score of at least

Yahoo is a very successful company. The only thing missing in my judgment is a some kind of anonymity. For example, MisterPrivacy.com has a very unique Surfbar which includes both search and banner advertising, while giving each surfer using the service an anonymous surfing experience. If Yahoo were to purchase this company and adapt their technology to display Yahoo advertisers and search results, it could really increase usage and advertising for them.

Score: 0

|

I see this in Google-terms, i.e. in another year or two Google will begin to experience a down-turn that will result in major losses for those who have paid too much for the shares. Yahoo! can recover from this. Google is doomed to fail.

Score: 0

|

I imagine the company will soon have to explore lead-generation based advertising as an additional way to boost revenue.

Score: 0

|

Google Chrome 4: Yes, it's fast, but is it usable?

As Betanews readers have responded to our stories about Chrome's JavaScript superiority...Does that mean we'd actually use this browser? Well...

Video: Netflix on PlayStation 3

Netflix has come to the PlayStation 3 via Blu-ray and BD-Live.

Verizon Wireless launches new Android, Chocolate, and ruggedized phones

The lower-priced Eris joins the Droid, while the Chocolate gets a touchscreen and more music playback.

Early sales figures for Windows 7 nicely high, but do we know why?

Fans of triple-digit surges in figures quoted by Betanews will love this one, as it appears Microsoft rediscovered how to pull off a software launch.

Myka announces its latest Linux-based 'net top box'

Myka's ION brings Boxee, XMBC, and much more to HDTVs.

What hath Mac wrought? A remembrance after a quarter-century

The reason there's a Macintosh today is not because of some brilliant flash of engineering genius, but because Apple had the audacity to learn from its mistakes.

Early build of Moblin 2.1 improves connectivity, but not device support

The Linux Foundation's Atom-centric OS yesterday received a major overhaul with the project release of Moblin 2.1 for netbooks and nettops.

The iPhone's China syndrome: Sales of 5,000 and climbing

There's actually a country where Apple's device is not a godsend, where sales can be measured in the dozens.

New European counterpart to FCC will ensure 'a more neutral net'

Late Thursday night, the ruling telecom administrators of the EU's member nations signed away their final authority to a new entity overseen by the EC.

Sophos study suggests Windows 7 UAC's default setting is self-defeating

Without any anti-virus installed, a Sophos test showed, User Account Control was only capable of thwarting just one malware package out of ten samples chosen.

Indiscreet tweet trips awareness of Web SSL vulnerability

A group of high-level security engineers had been making progress on thwarting a low-level threat to the Web, until somebody blurted it all out on Twitter.