RSSAfter HD DVD: Who benefits, and what happens next?
By Ed Oswald | Published February 19, 2008, 4:30 PM
With HD DVD out of the way, BetaNews sat down with Krishna Chander of iSuppli and Michelle Abraham of In-Stat to discuss the future of high-definition discs.
Toshiba's surrender in the two-year long next-generation disc war has finally put an end to what has seemed to be a never-ending stream of back-and-forth between two groups of technology and content producers, over concepts and features with very little to distinguish themselves from one another.
However, is the end of HD DVD really a net benefit to the consumer? And where does the platform as a whole go from here? In BetaNews' discussions with analysts, we found some similarities and differences in opinions.
Ed Oswald, BetaNews: Krishna, Michelle, thanks for taking some time to help our readers sort through Tuesday's news. So, the logical starting point here is: who benefits from the scales being tilted in Blu-ray's favor?
Michelle Abraham, In-Stat: Obviously the Blu-ray Disc Association and its members. You could also argue that the consumer could be grouped into that category as well.
Krishna Chander, iSuppli: Yes, the Blu-ray Disc Association benefits the most. Consumers confused by the battle also now have a single choice, and Sony can now move forward with promoting the format.
BN: I guess it would be pretty obvious that BDA probably sees the biggest gain from a single format. But lets focus back on the consumer a bit. Will we see prices of Blu-ray players drop even more now?
Chander: There still are some economic issues with Blu-ray. Keep in mind that the discs are still more expensive to make than HD DVD was. At the same time however, Blu-ray discs have more capacity: 25 GB to start out versus the basic discs for HD DVD only capable of 15 GB.
BN: So, without HD DVD there wouldn't be much pressure to bring prices down?
Chander: Correct. Prices won't just tumble. With its main competitor gone, there is not much of a reason for prices to drop quickly.
Abraham: Prices will come down, as that is just the nature of the electronics industry. This happens for a variety of reasons: Component prices come down as more are made, and so forth. But don't expect any $99 Blu-ray players in 2008, like HD DVD was able to do with Wal-Mart. We'll definitely see a price decline by the holidays, however.
BN: That makes sense. Do either of you however feel that we will still see combination players to ease the transition for the 600,000 or so that already own HD DVD players and/or drives?
Abraham: I doubt it. There will be no more combination players coming out. From what we've seen in the market, I wouldn't be surprised if many of those player owners -- basically the "early adopters" -- don't own both already.
Chander: Combo disc players are done, gone the way of the do-do bird. These players were already quite expensive, and I suspect in one to two years to see such players disappear from the market.
BN: That could be a hard switch for many who may not own both players. With this 'format war' going on for much of the past two years, are we at the point where the confusion has permanently damaged the success of HD discs overall?
Abraham: The market is not permanently damaged. But it will come down to what the content creators put on the disc. It can't just be about the video quality.
BN: Krishna, do you agree with that position?
Chander: There is certainly a level of fragmentation in the market. Although its not the official position of iSuppli, we don't see much of a future in optical discs. [Ed.: Chander did add it was dependent on several factors relating to our next question.]
BN: That seems to be the argument from quite a few people. So does that open up the HD industry to streaming, which has seen a significant uptick in the past several months amid all this disc confusion?
Abraham: I don't think so. The video quality is still not on par with that of regular discs. There is a convenience aspect, no doubt. Again, it comes down to the content on the disc.
Chander: Streaming HD has started to gain traction. We think that with fiber into the home, there is promise here.
BN: Wrapping things up, do you think Toshiba's implicit diss of Blu-ray in its press conference saying it had "no immediate plans" for high definition discs means anything in the end?
Abraham: I don't think it matters much. BDA already had enough manufacturers before Toshiba.
Chander: [in agreement] Toshiba had three main areas of focus: NAND flash, HD, and HD DVD. They will be refocusing some of that HD DVD effort into NAND. I think in about a year they will support Blu-ray. Right now Toshiba is not ready either mentally or economically.
BN: Krishna, Michelle, thank you both for your time and insight, it's much appreciated.
HD quality downloads (the "streaming" argument) isn't going to be common for quite a while.
The download-able 720p movies Apple is promoting have terrible video quality, with video compression levels running 1000:1. Very severe.
Meanwhile the vast majority of all Internet users have connections that are way too slow for even standard DVD quality downloads to be practical, never mind going HD.
Until the average Internet connection is running at speeds of 30 million to 50 million bits per second, HD quality downloads are not going to be practical. It will be at least 5 years or more before connection speeds get anywhere near that fast.
Blu-ray Disc has at least 7-10 years of useful life ahead of it.
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|Nate Mook's delusional HD DVD fanboyism is the laughing stock of the internet.
http://forums.highdefdig...e0fb0c81e55&t=44371
http://forums.highdefdig...e0fb0c81e55&t=38948
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|your an awful troll dave
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|Wow another article you failed to actually read who wrote it.
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|Funny BR fanboys over there :D
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|Troll, troll, troll your boat, gently down the stream...
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|nate is so upset about the whole situation that i got banned....for posting nothing but a challenge to his "editorial"
what is the name of this site again!? is this your new logo??
http://www.mustangmods.c...ms/u/527/641/223372.jpg
is that how it works now?...the editors of BetaNews are the end all be all of everything? a challenge to an editor results in deleted posts and banning?....
unbelievably unethical on the part of BetaNews...
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|He can do what he likes if you don't like it or unable to follow the rules either stop posting flames or don't post. That is a sure way to not get banned.
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|METFANANT,
I also got banned a few weeks ago for challenging Nate's/Ed’s/Beta”News” lies.
It has become clearer and clearer since I was banned that this "News" site is nothing more than an MS site who’s sole purpose is to lie and spin anything against Sony (ps3, bluray, whatever).
Really since Warner announced it was going BLU, Beta"NEWS" has done everything in its power to protect the interests of MS by, like you said, being unbelievably unethical. I've noticed that even comments are getting deleted all the time now. Anything that challenges this site and its questionable "journalism” will get banned sooner or later.
Yes there are some people on this site that deserve to get banned, but you and I my friend are not one of them. Though we did have moments of childish behavior (and who here doesn’t), our conversations and arguments where for the most part meaningful and relevant to the topics posted. I guess that is how it works on Beta"News".
Well good luck to you my friend. Engadget.com is actually a really good site for the latest and greatest news. Gizmodo.com is also fun. Hopefully I’ll see you there sometime.
P.S.
I have to admit that I do miss fighting with Hollywood__, and my “discussions” with YOUNTMJ will also be missed. Yountmj, you are a really cool cat in my book!
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|Would you like some cheese with your whine?
Oh please, you do nothing but troll. You say the editors here are pro-MS, and if that's true, it puts you on the extreme far end of the scale, being a pro-Sony fanatic. You should have got banned a long time ago. Now you're just gonna come back, troll more, spread more Sony propaganda, whine about being banned, insult the editors every chance you get, and eventually get banned again. Rinse, repeat.
Perhaps you should just take the hint, cut your losses and move onto another site to troll. You're obviously not wanted here.
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|YEah...
Your side of the story:
here were Nate's comments on the situation: WAAAAAAAA WAAAAA!!!! cry cry cry!!!
*laughs*
Huh....wonder why you got banned.
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|here were Nate's comments on the situation: WAAAAAAAA WAAAAA!!!! cry cry cry!!!
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|Just curious, am I one of the few who prefers a physical medium to downloads? I like to be able to purchase a movie and have a tangible copy in my hand. You know, one that I can take to multiple locations to watch etc.
I can see the benefits to digital downloads/streaming, but I for one do not want to see discs disappear anytime soon. My 2 cents.
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|i like to buy my discs too...but everyone around me is downloading everything...but that's a strange area. I am talking about people I don't actually know personally, but on various sites who download "shady" material. Shady in that the material was not intended for download.
If anything, it could be the piraters and bootleggers that make everything only available via downloads and we'll be forced to adapt. (downloadable content may prove more hack proof than the physical discs)
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|I want a blu-ray burner now!:( oh, but then id be deadbroke and would not be able to afford blank bluray discs! lol i'll have to squeeze a bluray to a dvd9 in the meantime, ugh
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|If you learn anything about the format war learn this. The movie companies don't care about what the consumer wants. Only what they want to give the consumer. That's why Universal, Sony, Disney, Fox, and some others didn't release movies on both formats. They choose what they thought would be best for them.
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|I agree with you here. I love digital for rental, but for owning movies, I still want discs. You can loan them out, and easily play them anywhere.
That said, digital music is different because you often times want to mix up the music you are listening to and with a CD, that is a big hassle. Plus, you can store all of your music on a small iPod very easily and take it wherever you want.
I don't think physical media for movies is going anywhere for a while, except maybe for rentals. But I don't think anyone is going to miss Blockbuster.
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|Nope I like to have a disk or something other than a hard drive that can fail. I would rather my media be a blu, hd, dvd, or cd rather than a form that can fail and be without all my stuff.
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|Download and then burn on blu/hd/dvd/cd or whatever you prefer.
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|Once network speed permits (and everyone has extremely fast connections), it'll be much more convenient to log-in to some online repository and stream your HD content to wherever you are. So you won't have to carry around 500 discs if you own the license to view 500 movies... And if you wanna view the stuff on portable players (in car, on a plane) then you'll have the option to download to that portable player ahead of time, or burn to a disc if it's more cost effective for your taste. Some people would want a physical copy of their licensed movies while others wouldn't bother. I personally wouldn't bother since those portable players at that time will likely have built-in storage space for at least 20 HD movies. Why would I bother wasting time burning and carrying weight? I'd mark 10 movies to download overnight (day before the trip) and wake up 8 hours later with the 10 licensed movies ready to view on the portable device. A little planning ahead needed - not much.
Right now I hardly ever burn DVDs. I hate it with a passion. Cataloging them, finding them, protecting them... I rather buy an external 500GB for $100 every few months and SAVE ME TIME. Of course I'm not that picky when it comes to visual/audio quality as I'm quite content with pirated divX 700MB movies today. Not even "DVD" quality... Most people actually look better at lower resolutions ;) Scenary is of course a dif story...
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|If you're licensed, you'll be able to download your content at least a few times at no charge, or pay minimal bandwidth charge to get additional copies... 95% of the cost will be the one-time license cost (the "right" to view on X amount of players for Y amount of times). The remaining will be the delivery cost (basically bandwidth).
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|I'd prefer discs too. Can't be arsed with waiting for a download over a connection that may or may not be working properly.
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|I think you'll find that Universal were releasing on both early on, but they then decided on HD DVD for their own reasons. To say that they only care about their own interests is simplifying it way too much, as each company have several reasons why they won't release on both. It's not that simple to release movies on both (one reason can be down to license issues).
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|Or you can simply just pick up a retail Blu-ray/HD DVD/DVD/CD disc instead of having to download then burn it onto a disc.
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|Just get an external hard drive. You can get a 1tb external hard drive for about half the price of a BD burner with one 25gb write once BD-R. To me 1tb HD looks better than 25gb write once media.
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|"I like to be able to purchase a movie and have a tangible copy in my hand. You know, one that I can take to multiple locations to watch etc."
What about a download that you can put in your hand, for example an iPod. Which then you could watch in multiple locations (including your TV). I still think digital downloads are the future. If that's not enough you could probably still burn the media to a CD/DVD/Blu-ray or an external HDD.
I also like Netflix's 'Watch Now'. You become a member and you can watch any of their movies or shows with out any time limit. The quality is great, it's about DVD quality; and it's streaming so you only have to wait like 15 seconds to start watching it. It's kind of nice to be able to watch it without having to buy and/or download each movie or show episode (like on Amazon.com Unbox). I can just watch anything (they have) when I want and as much as I want (on my HTPC) for as little as $8.99 or more for unlimited or $4.99 for 5 hours (It's inlcuded free with your DVD renting). You should watch the un-edited version of Dexter Season 1 on Netflix Watch Now.
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|I'd say you must be over 30, by your comment. I am also, and agree with your choice. However, those I know under 30 seem to not care, much the same as the under 30 set are willing to download mp3's instead of having a higher quality CD to listen to.
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|If I buy a movie I do want something more tangible than just a digital copy of the movie itself. The only way I'd pay for a download version would be for rentals. Especially with all the DRM they stick in them now, and who knows how long your purchased copy will be usable. My favorite movies are all on DVD or Laserdisc. Yeah I still have a few of those, love the large LP sized covers and art. I don't think physical media will be going away for a long time.
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|I'm 36, and I feel the same way that you do. I will probably always prefer physical media. Part of that reason is that it simply means more to me to be able to actually see my collection sitting on several bookshelves instead of as titles and cover art within a list on the screen.
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|I love players that include automatic disc side switching... but it still didn't solve the problem of getting up for those occasional second discs. :)
It still doesn't bother me, since I'm all nostalgic that way.
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|I agree whole heartedly.
My movie collection, in all of the formats (VHS, Laserdisc, DVD, and the high def formats) is something of a point of pride for me. I've always preferred owning my media, over rental OR as a file on the computer.
And yes...I'm 36 also.
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|Being someone who cherishes and takes pride in my material possessions has been somewhat of a curse my whole life. I remember laughing my a** off the first time I watched 40 Year Old Virgin with my friends, but then I looked around my house at all the similarities and thought "Hmm... now that's disturbing, but... at least I'm not a virgin". :)
Someone comes over to my house and sees my Laserdisc collection and assumes "Wow, you got a lot of vinyl"... No, those are movies... you want to see the vinyl collection? LOL
"And yes...I'm 36 also."
I got that impression.
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|It's sad...my vinyl almost has it's own bedroom. LOL
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|I used to be a huge proponent of downloadable media until I recently realized that with more tangible forms (DVDs, CDs) at least there's some resale value there. Down the road I can't sell my used mp3, but i can sell a CD (that I've made mp3s of anyway) :)
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|Oh yeah? Well I've... there's... it's so big that...
...
Oh forget it. That was good. You win. :)
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