Analysts: Google faces more problems than Microsoft-Yahoo deal

By Jacqueline Emigh | Published February 6, 2008, 10:31 AM

In spite of Google's annual revenue growth of 52%, many Wall Street analysts are now advising their clients to hold off on buying Google stock. Has Microsoft's bid for Yahoo made that much of a dent, or are there other factors at play?

"We think that the first cracks may be starting to appear in Google's hyper-growth story," Jeff Lindsay, a financial analyst at Sanford Bernstein, reportedly wrote in a note to clients at the end of last week.

Since the release of Google's fourth quarter financial results last week, its stock value has continued to slide on the NASDAQ exchange, and was continuing to do so this morning.

That continued slide is an indication of growing concerns among investors about Google's advertising performance, especially its click-through rates and its difficulties in harnessing revenues from social networking sites...as well as the simultaneous threat now being posed by Microsoft's proposed acquisition of Yahoo.

Citing an increased risk profile for Google, Youssef Squali, an analyst at Jefferies, recommended that investors "step to the sidelines," downgrading Google from a buy to a hold and reducing his price target for Google from $725 to $600.

Robert Peck, an analyst at Bear Stearns, wrote to his clients that a Microsoft + Yahoo combo would produce a major contender to Google in terms of overall Internet page views.

Peck also observed that both Microsoft and Yahoo hold an edge over Google in display advertising, "which currently does little business in display."

Google has been planning to couple its contextual ad colossus with DoubleClick's giant display ad platform, but that merger deal still awaits approval from European antitrust regulators...that is, if it comes at all. "The display business is literally right in front of us and the DoubleClick acquisition is an essential part of that strategy, so we'll see," said Google CEO Eric E. Schmidt in an earnings call with financial analysts last week. "But of course, we have a sales force that is perfectly capable of selling [display ads], customers are purchasing those already, and it's a market that would benefit from the kind of technology that Google can bring to market."

During that call, it was a slowdown in Google's paid-click ad volume -- or the clickthrough rates on ads -- that seemed to bother analysts more than anything else. "Our worry going into the fourth quarter about Google was related to monetization levels, or cost-per-click growth, given what was going on in financial services, retail, and travel. We weren't worried about query growth," said Imran Khan, an analyst at J.P. Morgan, raising the first question on the call.

"Now you've reported your numbers and by our math, the cost-per-click growth was about 16%, so very robust, the highest we've seen in a long time, but by your math, the paid click growth was only about 9% sequentially in what is typically a seasonally strong quarter," according to Khan.

Among other factors related to lackluster growth in paid-click ads, Google officials pointed to difficulties in taking advantage of ads on social networking sites, suggesting in particular that a deal between Google and MySpace isn't paying off yet.

Google has been taking an "experimental" approach to advertising on sites such as MySpace and YouTube, according to the Google executives.

"So all in all, we are doing a lot of experimentation. We are starting to do it globally and we are doing it in every integrated fashion and by adding the other key assets that we have," said Omid Kordestani, Google's senior vice president for global sales and development, also during the call.

"Remember that the Google model is one of experimentation. We keep trying and we keep trying new ideas until we find the ones that really generate phenomenal ROI and not only do we go with them but they grow very quickly," Schmidt said.

Comments

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Why can't anyone see that Google stock is overvalued? Eventually it'll come cashing down under its own weight. And messing around with M$ can only speed up the process.

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As a small business, we are doing everything possible to move off Microsoft and move on to Google. Why? Google lets us be platform independent, hold our data, and access it from any type of system. That makes good long term sense. We're tired of OS upgrades for the sake of OS upgrades, and we certainly see the Office suite and exchange platform as "old school," and no longer the future.

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I don't know about you, I just don't like the idea letting another company holding my company data hostile is a good idea.

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Like I said, Google has tools that allow all the data they hold to be saved locally. A supoena would go through the same process locally as it would remotely: except google has better tools that cost far less than local shops have to find that data.

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LOL, Google has nothing to worry, most of the people i know will never use Microsoft or Yahoo search engines, no matter what merge/splits that may have.
In my opinion financial analysts are just guys that launch rumors in order to get money with it and usually people that follow they tips are stupid or uninformed.
Microsoft even with a golden bath it will not be as good as Google and history proves. They only buy or copy, they usually don't create.

Go Google!!!

This is just my 5 cent opinion :)

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...and you probably only have 5 cents! Let's see! Microsoft grosses better than $50 billion per year and their income is better than $3 billion per quarter, but, according to you, they really don't know what they are doing, right? Now, go outside and play!

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Acquisition of wealth does not, and never has, equate with intelligence. According to your logic wealth automatically makes you brilliant. I assure you I have met some extremely rich people who are also extremely stupid.

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I have to agree I rarely use Yahoo search for anything....Google has always seemed more appealing to me.

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I agree with all here except for the uncouth troll.

Not to also mention that wealth can also be acquired through illegal, immoral means.

Most analysts, if they don't have outright secret agendas, are incompetent. At any rate, they're not company CEO's for a reason-- they'd have no clue.

1. It's ridiculous how a company with such as yet untapped potential, and who more importantly-- keeps increasing profits at such high rates... endures a downward share price swing.
Nonwithstanding, Google share price has the potential to reach Berkshire-Hathaway levels.
2. MS-Yahoo merger would NEVER be allowed to fly... what a waste of time even speculating about it.
As well, anyone who thinks such a merger would help consumers has to have been living in another planet the last couple of decades.

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Great. After dropping from $750 to $500, analyst finally advise their clients to hold off buying Google. I remembered few analyst come out and recommended Google a buy after it passed 700.

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Buy low sell high is what i always heard....

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