Analysts Lowering Sony PS3 Estimates
By Scott M. Fulton, III | Published September 11, 2006, 4:00 PM
On the basis of last week's stunning announcement from Sony that it will delay the launch of its PlayStation 3 game console in Europe from November to May, and trim the expected availability in North America and Japan come November to a mere 500,000 units, two leading market analysts told BetaNews they will soon be issuing revised downward estimates for overall sales of the PS3.
In-Stat senior analyst for converging markets and technologies, Brian O'Rourke, and iSuppli senior analyst for consumer electronics, Chris Crotty, both told BetaNews they are lowering estimates. O'Rourke cited the high price of the Sony console, in addition to the Europe launch delay.
Crotty went further, saying he is cutting his forecast for the entire game console industry clear into 2009, although he remains optimistic for the PS3's long-term outlook.
According to Sony, 400,000 PS3 units will be available in North America on November 17, with only 100,000 units available in Japan on November 11. However, the company still hopes to sell two million units by the end of the year.
Sony Computer Entertainment President Ken Kutaragi last week apologized to investors and consumers, admitting that Sony's strength in hardware was in decline.
Other analysts are currently anticipating competitor Microsoft to unveil its HD DVD player attachment for Xbox 360 in November, which would put that console on a par with the Blu-ray-endowed PS3, while at the same time adding emphasis to the PS3's lack of immediate availability.
One word. Just one.
Betamax.
Score: 0
|Sony is in a terrrible race against time to push the console out. do you honestly think there will be no bugs in the system that rushed out so much? even without crystal ball or expertize in the field, just looking at history, i can bet anything on that the PS3 will be horribly buggy. i'm not planning to get 360 (or any other console), but i still would avoid the PS3 like a plague for now untill the bugs are found and fixed.
PS3 defenders, can you guys honestly disagree that the console will be terribly buggy? you do realize that sony is going to beta (if not alpha) test it on you? and it will be at your cost (which is not trivial to say the least)
i guess some people have money to throw away... but if you are to donate your money why not give to some charity insted of arrogant and greedy sony?
Score: 0
|"PS3 basic has no HDD/Blu-Ray"
NO, but the PS3 basic IS without an HDMI port, which is non upgradeable. Let me clarify: YOU CAN NEVER BUY ENOUGH EQUIPMENT TO TURN A PS3 BASIC INTO A PS3 PREMIUM CONSOLE. That sucks!
"PS3 triangle fill rate is half of a XBox360"
The strength of the PS3 lies in its RSX shader and it's multiple cores (see below). The triangle fill rate is about the same, it's ability to shade is about 3 times faster, BUT there are plenty of other things to b1tch about...let's move on, shall we?
"PS3 Cell memory speed is broken/slow"
They've downgraded and downgraded this many many times, just search google news for "ps3 downgraded" and you'll see what I mean. Even the second version of the dev kit had more RAM than the final version of the product! PLUS SONY has warned developers to EXPECT at least ONE of the seven cores to have failed by the time it reaches store shelves, and to program for it accordingly!
"PS3 looks like a breadbin/george foreman grill"
SONY has never had a good taste in design...the PSP is huge, even my Wega TV is clunky...
"PS3 controllers are ugly"
Oh if only this were true...but alas THEY'RE THE SAME DAMN THING AS LAST TIME, with the exception that they ripped off Nintendo with the motion sensor. Innovation? Nope. Yet something else to spend money on? Yep.
"Cell is hard to program for, becuase it's got 7 CPUs"
Like I said above at least one is expected to fail. AND, have you ever tried to program ANYTHING on a multi-core system, utilizing both cores? Ask any anti-virus software writer, or the programmers of MySQL or the programmers at Sybase how difficult this is (and as I deal DIRECTLY with Sybase every day, don't tell me I'm wrong...)
"Sony's developer tools are no good/does not suppor DirectX"
No ****, they use their own proprietary software that is basically a ripoff of OpenGPL. Again, innovation? No... but then again, what do you expect from a company that believes it can ride on the coattails of previous successes?
This is not an attack on ANYONE, this is merely a defense of the TRUTH.
Score: 0
|You do know that you don't have to write multithreaded apps for the Cell to still multi-thread it right?
The PPE takes care of which SPE does what....
MySQL, Sysbase, they are for conventional CPU's with conventional thread scheduling, not PPE tasks. Apples and Oranges....
Score: 0
|Ahh--there you are, Mark (see bottom comment :)
Score: 0
|These ANALysts are a clever bunch. Can mortals ever come to the conclusion that overall sales of the PS3 would be effected by a delayed launch with only 500,000 made available. Along with missing the Xmas cashcow in europe.
I bet they slept well after coming out with that one.
Score: 0
|Personally I dont care what system wins whoever has squaresoft is where I am heading... right now sony does but if it bombs I could see them jumping ship to the xbox360...which in all honesty what parent is going to buy their kid a 500 dollar system with no game? Clearly, I think the wii is going to triumph in all this but only time will tell...if the ps3 performs like it should and has no bugs then it is possible for sony to come on top...it all comes down to the games is where people are going to go...plus if the blu-ray movies bomb but the system sells they should be fine the psp is selling pretty well and the psp movies are not flying off the shelves but sony seems to be doing ok with that end
Score: 0
|Joey you do realize that an HD is NOT standard on a PS3?
Also the tiered system for the consoles is just flawed.
The programmers, as they do in pc games and applications, must program to the lowest common system.
So if you shell out $900 for a super duper NICE version of a PS3, the games are gonna play just as well on a regular, run-of-the-mill PS3. ( granted you may not have a wireless control, or 1080p... but these are just bells and whistles )
As for the supply, its basic economics. If your supply does not meet demands, you are having a loss in potential rofits.
Sony and MS are both at fault for this, the only difference is MS is now on track...Sony has yet to see if it will be so lucky.
it seems almost impossible and inconcievable that SOny can produce 2 millionunits by years end. They are speculating having only half a million by November ( with units having been in production since the final products was estaablished a few months back ). This means that in a month and a half they will have to prduce three times the amount of units that they have produced in the last few months.
And another great hurdle for them is to create demand after the hype. If you buy a PS3, it is for two things : Blu-ray and PS3 games. If the movies out n Blu-ray are not what you want, and neither are the games, why would you purchase one?
Speculating on the price of the HD-DVD addon for the xbox360 is just plain rediculous. So no point to argue over a speculation.
And it seems that it is easily frgotten that MS can still stifle Blu-Ray if it so chooses.
MS has to support it in windows, otherwise how will you make "legal" back-ups f movies or games to play on your brand new console? Or even, how will you play those movies you bought on your new vista notebook on a plane ride?
Seeing as how the success of both Blu-ray and the PS3 will go hand in hand, it will be an interesting ride to see. If Blu-ray fails, so will the PS3 ( then you would have spet a few hundred on a system that can ONLY play its proprietary content ). If the PS3 fails, Blu-ray will most likely fail also, as it will not have the amount of home user penetration that HD-DVD may have.
The way it seems, Sony has put all its eggs in one basket, and even its own executives are warning of its decline, making for a grim rediction. Hopefully they have some success, as is the norm, more competition is good for the consumer. But unfortunately at the moment it seems aas if Sony is on the losing end based on the facts available to us at the moment.
Latz,
Score: 0
|Errm, both the basic and the advanced PS3 have a HDD. 20GB in the basic, 60GB in the advanced... Check out the offical Sony specs.
http://www.us.playstation.com/PS3/specs.html
I laugh when people b1tch about the PS3 price, yet have no idea what the PS3 actually contains....
You can apologise in your own time...
Score: 0
|I never complained about the PS3 price...
Now say your sorry... "b1tch" ...whatever that means ;).
And keep on laughing...all the way to the bank...to clear out your savings for a doomed peice of electronics! :p
Latz, SB
Score: 0
|Should have worded it better. I realise you may not have b1tched about the price, but there are many comments, with just as many spec untruths, usually sourced from the Inquirer, or XBox forums.
The usual BS that floats about is:
"PS3 basic has no HDD/Blu-Ray"
"PS3 triangle fill rate is half of a XBox360"
"PS3 Cell memory speed is broken/slow"
"PS3 looks like a breadbin/george foreman grill" (would agree with the latter)
"PS3 controllers are ugly"
"Cell is hard to program for, becuase it's got 7 CPUs"
"Sony's developer tools are no good/does not suppor DirectX"
Ultimately it's all speculation, and hearsay mostly generated from clueless numpties, and until we see the final PS3, then anything else is worthless hearsay...
and so on..
Score: 0
|"which would put that console on a par with the Blu-ray-endowed PS3"
Errm, far from it.
The HD-DVD bolt-on for XBox360 is limited to 720p, has no HDMI, Can't play games from it, takes up more space, no True-HD or DTS-Master Audio and when added to the cost of the base console, will cost only a few ££ less than a top of the range PS3, which has higher spec.
The HD-DVD Bolt-on is rumoured to be £199, which is US$374.
Talk about less for more....
http://www.eurogamer.net...le.php?article_id=67463
Score: 0
|"The HD-DVD bolt-on for XBox360 is limited to 720p, has no HDMI..."
Umm...you mean 1080i. Sure, that's still not 1080p like Blu-Ray, but just pointing that out.
Score: 0
|'Fraid not, HD-DVD bolt-on (the Xbox360 one) only does 720p
http://www.reghardware.c...ws_xbox_360_hddvd_drive/
"Microsoft did say the drive will allow HD DVD titles to be displayed at HD resolutions of up to 720p. Without HDMI and HDCP, however, some content may be limited to standard resolution playback."
Score: 0
|No url then? Every article I've seen says it's 1080i:
http://reviews.cnet.com/4520-6449_7-6446304-1.html
And even sony's criticism of the 360 admits it's possible: http://arstechnica.com/n...post/20051213-5759.html
I could show some others, but if you google it I'm sure you could too. If I'm somehow mistaken, please enlighten me...?
Score: 0
|You got him there, as soon as I read what he said, I was almost certain he was incorrect.
Score: 0
|Using British prices for an idea of what the HD DVD drive would cost is frankly very uniformed... remember the Xbox 360 core system is 199 pounds....
Score: 0
|??? In the link provided, Microsoft stated it's only capable of 720p
Score: 0
|Does not matter which way you spin in.
If you bought a Core today, for £199, and a HD-DVD upgrade for another £199, plus £70 for the HMDI lead, it's already more than the price for the top end PS3, and you 'aint even got HDD, Wifi, in your XBox360...
Seems the realisation has come crashing down on XBox360 owners, that it was a false economy (asuming they want HiDef movies).
Score: 0
|Just to fix this argument....720p is going to look better than 1080i. 720p is 720 individual lines. 1080i is 540 lines doubled...
Score: 0
|Microsoft really thought the console would be ready in time. They really did. They weren't a bunch of idiots who knew nothing about anything and just planned to lie to everyone about a simultaneous world-wide launch.
Sony should have realised this. Rather than learning from other's mistakes, their arrogance caused them to make the same--or close to the same--mistake as microsoft. Sony should have known better, they really should have. This was exactly what I expected since December of last year. Sony can't have tomorrow's technology available in mass quantities today.
Score: 0
|They played the waiting game, instead of culling features, kept with the original plan, despite the criticisms.
I think it's the smart move, and will pay dividens in the long run.
Having Blu-Ray and HDD in all models, means games can fully utilise them. It would have been easy to launch a basic PS3 ealier 2006, with DVD and no HDD, with a XBox360 price, but they resisted than temptation, as it compromises the full unit, by splitting the market.
This is exactly the mistake Microsoft made, by removing the wrong features from the XBox360 Core. If they had left the HDD in and removed less critical components, games on both the core and the premium would be MUCH better.
A year from now, when the PS3 is in ample supply, these problems will be history, and the console will be making it's mark. If the plan goes Sony's way, the HD-DVD / Blu-Ray war will also be over..
Score: 0
|I wonder if Sony will pay me to be their cheerleader too.
How much are you getting?
Score: 0
|Joey Deacon is the first guy I've seen on a blog, forum, etc. that actually defends and praises Sony and their PS3. I'm sure Sony is hoping he buys enough of these PS3's to keep them from losing the next-gen race.
Score: 0
|Perhaps you are correct, but my point is that Sony keeps delaying the console and keep over-predicting supply. That is a miscalculation they should not have made IMHO--they knew it was future technology but they still assumed it would work as quickley as current technology, just like MS did. Sony should never have predicted or told us that the console would launch last spring, this december, etc., when they obviously weren't sure of it.
They also predicted the number of consoles sold this year to be 2 million, but only 500,000 will be available from what we can tell, so how is that possible?
The fact is--consumers love choices. Had sony offered blu-ray as an optional component, they'd have sold more consoles and be well on their way to regaining lost market share. Having an Xbox360 version w/o a hard drive is not a limiting factor by any means, as the 360 games ALL take advantage of the hdd if there is one present. The HD-DVD drive is pointless--maybe in the future two DVD's may cost more than one HD-DVD, but today they certainly aren't.
"A year from now, when the PS3 is in ample supply, these problems will be history, and the console will be making it's mark."
I agree with you. I still believe, however, that the losses from waiting so long will end up costing sony more, even in the long run. Honestly, if Sony announced that blu-ray had too many issues and that the initial PS3's would use DVD's instead, would you still refuse to buy a PS3? Certainly that factor alone doesn't change you to buy an Xbox 360 over a PS3, right?
Score: 0
|500,000 At Lauch (Early Nov)
400,000 US, 100,000 Japan
the 2,000,000 figure is for year end (Dec 31st).
Personally, I think they will be lucky to get 1.5 Million by year end, but then I am guessing..
As for the "Having an Xbox360 version w/o a hard drive is not a limiting factor by any means, as the 360 games ALL take advantage of the hdd if there is one present." comment. It's not nearly as simple as that.
Being a software developer myself (not games I admit), I know. Whilst I sure the XBox360 premium games take advantage of the HDD somewhat (caching of DVD data for example), it's nowhere near the potential if all the consoles had one from the outset.
Score: 0
|Umm... Mark Gillespie supports sony adamantly--you can find him all over BN comments, and I'm sure he'll come to this one shortly :)
Score: 0
|I would have to also say that I think sony would be extreamly lucky to get 1.5 million consoles out by the end of the year.
Yet, there much more to game developing than software development for pc.
Score: 0
|And let me tell you something, he's also flat out annoying.
Score: 0
|