'Cyber Monday' Ain't No Christmas Myth

By Scott M. Fulton, III | Published November 28, 2006, 12:18 PM

The first raw data on Internet usage yesterday indicate shoppers rode heavy on the net. But there's one important question outstanding: Were those shoppers also purchasers?

If ever you happen to be up to your neck or deeper in snow, you could say you didn't see any avalanche. Despite some early anecdotal indications that "Cyber Monday" either fizzled or was a non-event, nay-sayers awoke from a prematurely long Christmas nap to find some raw numbers that spoke otherwise: According to estimates from corporate Web services provider Akamai Technologies, North American Internet traffic yesterday to the 270 major retail sites tracked by the company was 19% higher than for the Monday after Thanksgiving in 2005, and global traffic was 14% higher.

A live graph updated every five minutes on Akamai's Web site tells the tale in undeniable fashion: Retail Web traffic accumulated among the company's list of 270 sites worldwide peaked at 3,538,454 total visitors per minute, at approximately 2:00 pm Eastern Time yesterday. The uptick of the curve had already exceeded Akamai's 2005 levels by 11:00 am ET.

How does this compare to "Black Friday?" Akamai saw global retail traffic peaking last Friday at 3,080,349 visitors per minute at mid-day - about 14.9% lower.

To try to help online shoppers find the deals they were looking for yesterday, the National Retail Federation established a special Web site, cybermonday.com, complete with extra online coupons and direct links to savings from 400 retail sites. Trouble was, the NRF told the Chicago Tribune, the site received four times as much traffic as the group had anticipated, forcing a temporary shutdown while its IT department added an extra server. Wal-Mart's Web site also experienced temporary crashes yesterday morning.

The outstanding question today is whether the surge of shoppers were actually spenders. Analysts speculated yesterday that the boom in shopping online could contribute to a bust in shopping offline, and that online shoppers are most likely hunting for bargains they can't find elsewhere, helping them to reduce holiday expenses rather than the other way around. One early indicator, some said, of the depths of these shoppers' budgets could be their confidence in the overall economy.

So today's release of Consumer Confidence Index numbers from the economic analysis firm The Conference Board sounded an early sour note. November's numbers unexpectedly declined to 102.9, from 105.1 the month before. An index value of 100 represents relative consumer confidence at the start of 1985, just prior to the outbreak of the Iran/Contra scandal. A 102.9 figure is still relatively high, though it's the fact of the decline, and by how much, that put a damper on early morning stocks trading on Tuesday, though numbers did rebound by early afternoon.

Whether Cyber Monday's standing as a phenomenon holds true throughout the year may actually depend, however, on whether successive shopping days this season actually generate more sales -- not just more traffic -- than yesterday. As Web research firm comScore reported last week, and other sites are repeating today, last year, it was around December 12 and 13 when retailers reported the highest sales for the season.

But if that pattern holds true this year, believers may argue that one reason is because Cyber Monday traffic -- with servers down and service outages -- may have slowed down the pace of sales the way fewer and slower checkout lines increase shopper frustration at department stores.

In any event, something definitely did happen yesterday which you can see for yourself on the charts. What matters now is how it impacted the economy.

View comments by with a score of at least

Microsoft's Ray Ozzie: 'Nobody's going to be 100% open'

The mobile apps ecosystems of the world may converge over time, led by apps being ported over across platforms, according to the Chief Software Architect.

Will Firefox beat IE9 to Direct2D rendering?

Just days after Microsoft executives gave conference attendees a peek at a new rendering technology, a Mozilla contributor revealed he's working on the same thing.

Where there's smoke: Apple warranty stance raises troubling questions

Carmi Levy | Wide Angle Zoom: Smoking can be dangerous not only for your lungs, it appears, but for your Apple hardware warranty.

AOL's decision to rebrand as Aol. takes a bad brand and makes it worse

The idea behind the social Web is to crowd source before bringing out something new. But not at AOL, which new logo debuted with a cry of "fail!" across the blogosphere and Twittersphere today.

Microsoft 'worked with Apple' for Silverlight on iPhone, says Goldfarb

By not making such a big deal out of trying to stream video to the iPhone, Microsoft got a big deal out of it, revealed the Silverlight product manager.

Clicker.com cuts through the Web video chaos

In a world where homemade video and Hollywood movies travel the same pipeline, it's good to have a real search engine to cut through the clutter.

A case study in improving software: What Office 2010 can learn from Notion 3

A music composition product gambles with a complete overhaul, in an effort to make headway against two well-known competitors in a tough market.

Kindle 2 update adds battery life, native PDF reader

Amazon has pushed out an update to the Kindle 2 e-reader that lengthens battery life and adds a native PDF viewer.

Safari on iPhone gets competition from a $1 browser app

Apple likes to say it gives iPhone users a full browsing experience, but a new competitor tries to incorporate more desktop browser features.

Action Replay maker sues Microsoft for Xbox 360 'predatory technological barriers'

Third-party video game accessory maker Datel has filed an antitrust lawsuit against Microsoft over the Xbox 360's recent Dashboard update.

Microsoft's Bob Muglia and Ray Ozzie on Silverlight vs. standards

Bob Muglia: "We're trying to provide people with an environment that has capabilities that you just simply can't do today in the standards-based world."