Jobs: Michael Dell Can't Predict Future

By Ed Oswald | Published January 16, 2006, 1:29 PM

As Apple's stratospheric rise continues, Apple CEO Steve Jobs shared a jab at Dell chairman Michael Dell with employees via e-mail on Friday. The comments are a response to a 1997 comment by Dell, who was asked what he'd do with Apple, then financially struggling and near collapse.

"What would I do?" Dell responded. "I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders." A few weeks later at Apple's official announcement of Jobs' return, with a picture of Dell's face covered by a bull's-eye, Jobs said, "You're in our sights."

On Friday, Apple's market capitalization passed that of Dells. The company is now worth $72.13 billion, versus Dell's $71.97 billion.

Shortly following the market close, Jobs sent an e-mail to employees, showing he hadn't forgotten Dell's comments nearly eight years later.

"Team, it turned out that Michael Dell wasn't perfect at predicting the future. Based on today's stock market close, Apple is worth more than Dell. Stocks go up and down, and things may be different tomorrow, but I thought it was worth a moment of reflection today. Steve."

Dell was not returning requests for comment.

Comments

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Good for Apple. If all we had was Dell, or HP, or Gateway or whatever, we'd be using crap. Competition is good. Bring it on! In ten years, when all the computing/entertainment/embedded/mobile devices are made in China, we'll look back on these glory days when things were made in the west. Our grandchildren will never believe us.

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As long as people are stupid they'll keep buying from Dell and Apple.

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What boneheads. You guys root for companies like they're your family. They could care less if you died in five minutes, as long as you bought one of their products before you croaked. Who cares. In twenty years, neither company will likely have the same name, if they even still exist.

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ha, I hope Steve Jobs doesn't think this will last. I honestly dislike both companies, but I will have to take Micheal Dell's side on this one. Dell will always be a success, I have thousands of customers here in my small area and the majority of them own a dell, No matter how many problems they have with their dell, and no matter how much I try to convince them away from dell, they still continue to buy from dell. Once the iPod fad is over, apple's stock will drop.

Apple's Recent rise in sales/stock are due to iPod sales and iTunes sales, that's it. Their PC/Laptop's only grew about 2% in 2005, which is actually alot, but not that much. If you were to compare Apple PC Sales to Dell PC Sales, Dell has them out matched by a longshot. Then again with Dell beginning to introduce many new products such as iPod type players of their own, Plasma/lcd TVs, Their handheld PC's, and the introduction of AMD Processors (still not in their PC's yet, but they do sell individual processors) Dell's stock will find it's way back up, Sorry Steve. Micheal Dell is a Genous....

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I think I fit somewhere between the Apple hating myopic nerds and the head in the clouds apple fanbois because I read this article and I think I get the point. Cite all the facts you want to, but I don't see their relavence here. This article is about who was right and who was wrong.

The point is that Michael Dell lacked what Steve Jobs had when he made that statement...Vision and the brilliance to work that vision into reality (which is funny because Michael Dell normally has that in abundance). Regardless of the comparison numbers it is clear that Apple as a company, as a brand, as a movement is successful. It is profitable, providing jobs, competition and variety in the market.

Normally stock price is a function of multiple factors, some esoteric and tough to get your mind around, others very concrete and based upon technology, patents, profit, and financial prospectus. So it reveals a sorely limited understanding of the topic to focus only on which technology is better (remember betamax - where is your betamax company stock now). People that have the resources to buy large amounts of stock did not get those resources by using tunnel vision and falling in love with a technology. They did so by looking at the whole picture and making prudent decisions that will make them more money. Sometimes this can lead to a lemming mentality as in the dot com bust, but this was not a single tech or company but rather a market condition. That is clearly not the case here. Investors look for value and potential...Apple has both. In terms of potential, Apple has more than Dell right now as Dell has become one of the largest players in their market. There is no place for them to go for rapid growth except into another type of market...doing this is risky and the things that made them successful before may not help them. Apple on the other hand has excellent potential for growth. They have a loyal customer base, they have universal brand recognition, they have tendrils into new technology, and they are making some interesting changes in their business plan in terms of fullfillment of hardware/software platforms.

When I was just a young computer tech instead of a business owner I thought it was just about technology, now I realize that Technology is just a part of the picture.

The real story here is that Steve Jobs was right and Michael Dell was wrong. Where Michael Dell saw only a business liability sucking up resources, Jobs saw potential and took Apple in directions that nobody could foresee. I see the naysayers here with lots to say, but without the abilities to make a even a lemonade stand successful let alone a failing and quirky international technology company.

While in the laptop and desktop market, Apple is still a niche player, in other markets (online music, personal entertainment devices) they are the prime mover and everyone is following them now.

Say what you will, Jobs is getting paid and paid well for his success and it is deserved for he has turned the company around.

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This post scores 10 to me.

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I think it's hilarious that their motto is "Think Different" when you look at the stupid iPod fad.

http://headrush.typepad....categorized/sheep_1.jpg

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Oh god that is funny! LOL! Thanks you!

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Why? The iPod itself can be described as being the product of thinking different. It has a great user interface and lets the customer buy content from a well-designed software program, rather than forcing the customer to use haphazard crap software to load terrible self-made rips. (Most people don't know how, and don't care to know how, to rip CDs into mp3s. Nor do they know or care about terms like LAME, VBR, bitrate, etc.)

The iPod will be on top as long as its competitors (such as Creative) are too stupid to figure this out.

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IN MY Opinion, back up with alot of facts...

as far as Apple goes here is the cold hard reality...

the stock price is high yes, but that means nothing as far as the worth of the company..
remember the DOT com's...? all it means is some shareholders, whom mostly a technologically retarded and know nothing about computers.. are bidding up the price..
cause they own IPODS and think they are kewl

Apples rise is simply due to the IPOD . PERIOD..

1 apple has less than 3% of the entire worldwide computer market..

PC's account for the other 95% or so..

2-apples revenues are much more lower than dells, some 10 times lower

apples revenue for '05 was around 3 billion
and made a profit of a measly 400 million

DELL's revenue was a whopping almost
$60 BILLION with profits of almost 4.5 billion

in other words.. all of apples sales and revenue did not even equal DELLS PROFIT.. lol

so as usual .. Jobs.. is a dreamer, and not living in reality in many peoples opinion

3 what JOBS also forgot to mention was
BILL GATES loaned and gave APPLE 500 million in invesment money a few years ago to keep them for going under and belly up cause it was in Microsoft's interest to do so cause MS makes some 50% of all apples software ..lol

APPLES hardware was so pathetic, that they now use INTEL PENTIUMS.. same as dell, and use OSX
which is essentially NEXT OS Unix, which was essentially based on the Mach os kernal technology, which WINDOWS NT and XP is also based

SO with 100% of INTELS CPU's and MS Money and IPOD Apples exist now.. that is a fact..

had MS no loaned them money, and INTEL not agreed to supply them with CPU's after power PC
cpu's went clunck
and IPOD not come along APPLE's computer business model and its 3% would not have been enough to save the company in all likelyhood

so APPLE computers are NOT really even the
same machine at all they were when Michael Dell made the comments in 97,,

in fact they are essentially and technically PC CLones now like Dells..
osX is now compiled to run on PC CPU's specifically INTELS... so neither the computer hardware or OS or anything is relaly as APPLE was in 97,, at all..
APPLE is really INTEL and MS INSIDE..lol

and with a measly 3% of the computing market,
and the fact that PC users almost never use macs, but many mac users switch or have to use PC's at work proves that..

THe IPOD is also a fad and days are numbered..
I am in the computer industry and get to see many emerging technologies..
and INTEL and others are comming out with hand helds that are faster store 10 times more, and
are NOT PROPRIATARY like the IPOD..

APPLE makes the same mistakes that SONY always makes.. PROPRIATARY technology that is closed
to the open markets,, and others like HP, Panasonic, INTEL, MS, and other great companies
merely develop like techoloigies that are better cheaper, and openly accessable to developers and people.. and accessories are made for them by 1000's of companies...

if you doubt me , then why did apple just settle a lawsuit on the IPODS horribly defective batteries on the last model that kept dying prematurly..for some 100 million !!

the IPOD will die down this year,, and the Koreans and japanese, and chinese and other companies are all comming out with superior similiar technologies

so that said......... what is driving APPLES
growth IPOD will die down and they will be left with their crappy overpriced PC clones essentially that are some 50% higher priced than DELLS, do not preform as fast, and
desperatly hang on to their measly 3% of the computer market..

with DELLS and other PC makers including me building DUAL DUAL CORE INTEL systems with hyperthreading.. that is essentially 8 CPU's
that can execute 8 threads at the same time
thats many times faster than a dual CPU mac
at the same price..

and their INVESTORS when the IPOD craz dies down will be left with sad faces.. not unlike the apple sad face that shows when a system crash occurs and likely lost money and not much else ...

and dell is meanwhile projected to do 80 billion dollars in revenue in the year or 2

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IMO (and yes, I KNOW that it's not shared by ALL), the iPod line is still a year or so ahead of any other MP3 player in terms of ease of use and streamlined design. I hate (read closely: hate) the fact that the iPod is proprietary. Even if I can download free software (read: EphPod) that will allow me to avoid having to install iTunes, it really doesn't make it stop being proprietary. I think the iPod would be a solid winner (HANDS DOWN) if it did the following:

1) Was able to be recognized and used by the mass storage device driver (defeats proprietary).

2) Had a user-changeable battery that was simple to replace.

Besides that, it already has solid battery life. The menu really couldn't be much easier for general populace use. The click wheel is a very smooth feature that really separates it from the pack.

Before you start thinking I'm a fanboy, I just sold my iPod and I do not currently own any other MP3 player (nor am I planning to). I simply don't use them enough to really benefit from it. BTW, Apple does have some good products...too bad they are a dying breed ;-)

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Since you are talking about facts, I thought I might help you state the facts more clearly and correctly... The revenue that you stated for Apple's 2005 fiscal year was the final quarter revenue, not the annual revenue. "$3.68 billion [revenue] and a net quarterly profit of $430 million"

"For fiscal 2005, the Company generated revenue of $13.93 billion and a net profit of $1.335 billion, reflecting annual growth of 68 percent and 384 percent, respectively, and representing the highest annual revenue and net profit in the Company’s***ory."

This is just facts and may not represent my personal opinions of beliefs.

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cyberimage you are too all over the place in your rant. before posting some long, drawn out, repetitive, grammer horrible, jumbled up cry fest, please look it over and sum it up with the facts. and yes everybody here on this site knows the ipod is one of the many things that have brought apple back into our homes and yes the biggest of the many things. but where is the facts to support your commment that "some shareholders, whom mostly a technologically retarded and know nothing about computers.. are bidding up the price..
cause they own IPODS and think they are kewl"? and as another person just replied you already got another "fact" partially wrong. just reading over this i have found a few other things that could be disputed. this leads me to wonder if you really know what you are talking about. but then you are in the industry so i guess i shouldnt doubt you. anyways if you read the article you would clearly see that this was about shares not revenue. Dell said, in 97, if he ran the company he would "shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders." since then jobs was able to turn the company around, yes he did have help which is very well known, and overtake dell in the stock market. and he did say things could change tomorrow. sorry everyone now i am writting too much. you get the point.

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This post scores -10 to me.

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Well pointed out, but why stop there? The are so many holes in cyberimage's rant, I'm tempted to call him the swiss cheese man.

Apple did not receive a 500 million loan from Microsoft. Microsoft bought 150 Million dollars of Apple stock as a show of confidence and as a way to settle up a few disputes/potential lawsuits with Apple.

Windows NT/XP is not based on Mach OS.

If MS had not invested in them, AND if Intel had not supplied them with CPUs AND if they didn't come up with the iPod.

Thats an awful lot of "if's there brother. LOL

So you are as you say "in the computer industry and get to see many emerging technologies.." LOL didn't help you to see the iPod comming did it?

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its realy wat realy need.woh thanks to allah. dell become more expensive but no quality.

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Make no mistake about it, you can credit Apple's huge success of late to the iPod. Apple may be worth more than Dell, but I wonder who's selling more copmuters. And even with Apple's success, Windows is owning the OS market. If I were Steve Jobs, I wouldn't be patting myself on the back just yet.

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Yeah...Apple PC's are WAY overpriced. Especially with the lack of ability to fully integrate in a Windows environment. Ever tried adding a MAC user to a Windows Active Directory without special connectors? Nightmare.

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I'm not a fan of ether Aplle, MS, or Dell, but if you buy a Dell equipe the same away Apple sell them, the cost wont be that diffrent.
Aslo, I do integrate Mac to AD all the time WITH NO external connector and it work great.
You just need to have an open minde and look beyong MS way, because MS is more in use that mean that's the best away to go...

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woh i completely agree.dell is rubbish

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Considering that Apple had so many false comebacks before this, this was a remarkable return to profitability. Before Steve Jobs' return, the issue was to survive. Now they can talk about making profits.

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Make no mistake about it, you can credit Apple's huge success of late to the iPod. Apple may be worth more than Dell, but I wonder who's selling more copmuters. And even with Apple's success, Windows is owning the OS market. If I were Steve Jobs, I wouldn't be patting myself on the back just yet.

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imtoomuch - "I wonder who's selling more copmuters"

I don't know, but I'd damned sure buy anything that could mute a cop, especially as he is about to tell me how fast I was going in that 35 mph zone!

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Nomad Jukebox Zen was the best MP3 player I've ever had, was out WAY before the iPod. I'd still be using it, except that it got stolen.

Apple's switch to the Intel platform is a cost and reliability decision. Intel can offer faster processors, and can produce greater numbers. And upgrading your processor will be SO much easier when you can buy it at the store. Someone said they should go with the IBM Cell... well, that is going to have major heat issues, and production is going to be really slow compared to Intel.

Apple needs to get rid of their stance on OS licensing. If they would just license the OS with the requirement that the OEM use their little TPM chip, they wouldn't have any more of a problem with piracy. And they need to get their a** in the mobile market and compete with Windows Mobile.

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wanna' buy mine?

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Is 6 months WAY before?
Can we have an historygram here someone?
do I have to beleive youre statement?

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whatever...michael dell is an arrogant buffoon...his company ripping people off with junk products and rotten service...he deserves some crow pie in his face....

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That's true too.

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I fully concur. Bravo, Apple!

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I completely agree with you.

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Below, you can read the rantings of a few more bad prophets, albeit resentful ones. Too bad all they do is bit@h and whine, instead of buying stock.

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Apple's stock price's over-valuated-- and there is no sure sign of further impending sales on the horizon: not with its overpriced intel computers--btw price may also cause the death knell of ipods in this competitive landscape-- proprietary and/or buggy iTunes & QuickTime are getting panned in reviews.

Why would someone buy an Intel Mac: paying more money for a slower computer-- why? Doesn't take a great IQ to answer that.

If you want a surer bet for a stock-- if you have enough allowance money to do it, that is-- just buy Google...keeps appreciating, with no upside in sight. There are way better stock buys than Apple out there: Cisco, Amazon, Sirius, the list is endless.

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Not really worth it now, or atleast not in the short-term. Will have to wait till their complete line of intel based computers come out to see if it is worth it or not.

Oh, and if apple continues to act like they do, they will become just like alienware with their overpriced systems that you can get for less elsewhere.

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You're in the minority-- it's not you right & most others wrong, it's the other way around--the next two posts should set you straight.

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Hey at least Apple has top ranked support. Alienware is the scorge of the free world. I plan on waiting until a week before my 3 year alienware laptop's warranty is up and put a shotgun shell in it and call them up, at their expense, and do everything I can to get them to send me a new one.

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Money talks, Bullsh!t walks.

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By mjm01010101 - "Hey at least Apple has top ranked support. Alienware is the scorge of the free world. I plan on waiting until a week before my 3 year alienware laptop's warranty is up and put a shotgun shell in it and call them up, at their expense, and do everything I can to get them to send me a new one."

Its the bottom feeders like you that cause a company to have such strict TS and CS policies. On behalf of the legit world - thanks alot!

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yeah....yeah....and it was overpriced two years ago, when you didn't buy it, huh? Hahahaha!!!

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Apple switching to intel is a extremely important move. Now they have the ability of taking on Microsoft. That doesn’t mean they will sell their OS separately, but people will be able choose Apple or Microsoft. This will increase their chances of getting more customers. Obviously, the price tag on most macs will deter a lot of people from switching, but then again there are many people out there that can afford them.

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I don't see that at all. They are still going to be Macintosh computers and are still going to be the same price. Apart from having a different CPU no one will be able to tell the difference. Why would people start buying them now?

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Exactly there is no difference. Apple's slogan "think different", to bad for them that Microsoft is the one think different, and is doing better as a compnay. The stock price may not be moving, But MSFT is far better then Apple as a whole.

Apple is good at certain thinks, design but that is about all.

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If Apple's computers will be able to boot Microsoft's software (as long as Vista is booting on EFI boxes) that just means more money to Microsoft. Yes, you still have to pay for the OS.
It may not represent a big market for MS, but what is the real profit on selling a single CD with a 8 pages, 1 color manual for hundreds of $ versus a big boxed hardware for a thousand and a half?
And when you say Microsoft in your post, I think you want to say the Microsoft ecosystem.

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What is the doofus bragging about?
He got lucky, he totally failed with his core products and got bailed out by one tiny component.
Jobs would compare to say, Ford being saved from bankruptcy if it decided to bring to market a Ford car radio that became such a big seller, folks with other car makes would get it. Flush with such success, Jobs would promptly make threatening noises about reastricting use of Ford components to only Ford cars, and subsequently announce the scrapping of all Ford car engines for one & exclusively only one: a V6 with low horsepower, which causes it to run very hot when attempting to drive fast or after prolonged use.

Jobs has no cause to thump his chest-- or maybe i misunderstood the raison d'etre of his memo's "moment of reflection"-- maybe he meant for a prayer of thank the lucky stars...but i doubt it, given his past arrogance.

If it were not for ONE SINGLE gadget, that kids happened to fixate on & thus alert everyone else to, Apple'd be toast.
But it seems Einstein Jobs either didn't learn his lesson and/or developed too much arrogance-- judging by his proprietary/drm/anti common standards(unless if/when it suits him) dogmas...predilections that limit his own sales.
Even worse, he just made a mega-blunder by leaving IBM-- in fact, several blunders in one:

1. He aligned himself with 'only one processor maker'
2. And worst of all, he chose the company that makes the slowest & hottest-temp processor. He could've chosen from among Sun Niagara, IBM Cell, AMD(in fact, why exclusively only one, and not multiple platforms a ala Linux & Solaris?) The first two chips mentioned are @100X more powerful than any amd/intel, the other two OS mentioned can run on all the platforms mentioned.
3. Whatever niche market segment advantages Apple once enjoyed-- such as with graphics-- which were being eroded big-time by Linux, will be completely gone on the new Intel platform.
4. For a clue of how efficient Apple really is, just visit their site & community: gotta be the slowest-loading & buggiest emai/forums/community on the web.

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Jobs went with the Intel platform because a.) It's a widely-accepted standard and b.) Intel created the x86 architecture.

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Just ONE GADGET!!!! iPod isnt the best mp3 player in the market, why does Apple sells a lot of iPods???? Good Marketing and they just have a nice LOOKING gadget, thats it, u can see iPods everywhere, even in your Corn Flakes!!!...i own a Creative Nomad....its way a lot better than an iPod, better sound, better user interface, u name it Creative is better than iPod, and cheaper

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"iPod isnt the best mp3 player in the market"

its not a mp3 player, its a media player.

sony nw-hd5 is the best mp3 player on the market, although it comes with crappy sonic stage,

check cnet, if you dont beleve me,

i used both the ipod and the hd5, the hd5 is better in two things, sound quality and battery time, the two things that really matter.

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Uh, no. Jobs went with the Intel platform because it runs more efficiently than the g5's. They simply could not get a g5 laptop to become a reality.

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Market capitalization isn't that great of an indicator of a company's success. It just shows that Apple's stock is high. It has little to do with the actual health of a company. The MP3 player/digital content delivery is an emerging market that Apple got in at an early stage. Once the market gets commoditized, Apple won't probably be such a hot commodity.

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It's a very common anecdote, but Bill Gates predicted that nobody would ever need over 640k conventional memory in a PC.

When you're a spokesperson for a company, it's important to represent your own interests and to cover your bases and not say something stupid.

Personally, I'm glad to hear about Michael Dell's comments. DELL still sell more computers to the business market than Apple and have very different products. What Dell stated about Apple is a perfect 'feel good' statement for an insider employee e-mail. This wasn't a public statement. I myself would say it too.

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That Gates quote is actually an urban legend, but I agree with your point.

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Talk about holding a grudge. I won't want to get on Steve's bad side; he's liable to remember for decades.

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Steve knows how to let go of grudges, betray close partners (Netscape) "and" almost every Mac lover for $150 million dollors. That's how much (dirt cheap) Bill Gates gave Steve (um Apple) in 1997 to drop their patent suites, giving Microsoft a bunch of Apple stock, making IE their default browser. And for another $150 million giving Microsoft access to patents. I was at the 97" MacWorld when Steve put Bill's face on the big screen. Never seen so many people look like they got hit in the gut with a telephone pole. These are the investments that paid for Apple's resurgence. Same as a second IPO...

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Well I can see that Jobs is still an obsessive, paranoid egotistical jerk. I do like Apple the company, but I can't stand that elitist idiot. Watch the movie Pirates of Silicon Valley to see just what kind of person he is. Sure it's a movie you might say but Steve Wozniak confirmed that his portrayel was accurate.

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or you could ask his daughter, Lisa Brennan-Jobs...

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hoho, apple is getting popular or what?

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Apple is getting popular.... After all soon all those teenagers who own an ipod will get jobs and they may go for a brand of computer they have heard as being the BMW of computers. If they can afford it they will probably get a mac.

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isn't the software in BMW's i-drive written by Microsoft?

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"My girlfriend always laughs during sex - no matter what she's reading."
Steve Jobs

What is the point of this story? bring up old quotes?

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why is this make it on the news anyway? especially on the front page of BN.

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Just to make YOU wonder ;) Nah, there's lots of news here which has nothing to do with Betas.

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Wow; 9 years ago Mike Dell says Apple is doing poorly. Someone tell me he was wrong! Nine years ago, that would have been a good idea!

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Uh, not quite. Not only "they are doing poorly", but more along the lines of, "they will NEVER make it."

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