RSSSamsung UK exec: Blu-ray's got five years to live
By Ed Oswald | Published September 4, 2008, 1:35 PM
An official with one of the format's principal supporting companies gives it a rather short life span, saying another technology would replace it.
If Samsung UK consumer electronics chief Andy Griffiths is correct, the format would have spent only seven years as a commercially viable format. Compare this to DVD, which has been available to consumers for well over a decade.
The comments also seem to be a delayed echo of the sentiment Netflix CEO Reed Hastings expressed nine months ago, when he said his company would begin to transition its primarily physical media-based business to that of one that focuses on downloadable content.
He, like Griffiths, gave disc-based media about five years before it ceases to be the dominant method of delivery. Likewise, many content providers have already enacted a shift favoring pure data.
Griffiths seems to suggest that streaming media is likely set to usurp Blu-ray in the near future. He pointed to the fact that download services are gaining in popularity, and the company is instead focusing on televisions as its revenue driver.
Samsung is looking to OLED technology, which promises to bring extremely thin televisions which produce more accurate and true-to-life contrast and color. Right now manufacturing costs are preventing mass production.
No doubt, along with these televisions, the company is also improving the Internet connectivity functions. Thus, Samsung may be precipitating Blu-ray's decline unintentionally by enabling the technologies that many believe will be its downfall.
"In 2012 we will be in a true HD world. Everything from your television to your camcorder will be offering you pictures in high-definition, and we plan to offer you that HD world from all angles," he told UK technology publication Pocket-Lint.
Griffiths is by no means the first to suggest that the format may be crippled. Since Blu-ray "won" the format war following CES 2008, analysts have repeatedly said the battle with HD DVD may have permanent hurt the format.
With nearly two years of back and forth between the two sides, seemingly prolonged and antagonized by Microsoft, it may have given enough time for alternatives, such as streaming, to become viable.
In fact, some have suggest that one of Microsoft's reasons for supporting HD DVD was to prolong the battle while it developed streaming HD on its own.
To tell you the truth, I don't see Blu Ray becoming mainstream. I still rent almost every BD movie from Netflix and there are only three or four I want to buy that are due to come out his year.
I don't buy PS3 games either, it's all 360 in this house.
By the way, anyone buy Braid for 360 and finish it? That game is a MF to figure out and after you solve it, you have to do it again to really complete the game.
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|If they want Blu-ray to die, they better come up with a better storage media.
4 HDDs is the limit I want to put into my desktop, and right now there's only 1 TB HDDs.
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|"4 HDDs is the limit I want to put into my desktop, and right now there's only 1 TB HDDs."
Say what? 4 HDDs is the limit? Since when? My main workstation has 6 HDDs, 2 of which are PATA and 4 are SATA. My simple file server has 10 HDDs, 4 PATA, 6 SATA. Just about every motherboard comes with support for at least 4 PATA + 4-6 SATA devices. Most mid to high end motherboards support 4 PATA + 10 SATA devices.
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|Seagate has just released a new 1.5 TB drive.
http://www.seagate.com/w...gnVCM100000f5ee0a0aRCRD
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|Good reading comprehension.
4 HDDs is the limit I want to put into my desktop... (emphasis mine)
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|Downloadable content will become less and less upon most providers due to the low bandwidth allowed by many providers. I about s*** a brick when I found comcast went to 250GB the internet I have now is 45! I am at 6 GB 4 days into the month already! I can't afford to even use netflix or itunes to download movies.
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|Griffiths says that Blu-ray will be dead by 2012 . . . posters are saying that the net isn't fast enough to support HD content. Both are right. Four years ago my speed was 1.5Mb -- it's now 8Mb. If that rate of increase continues, then four years from now my speed will be over 40Mb. That seems more than enough for HD content. And that's based on flat-rate growth, not the more likely exponential growth that has been happening.
The real worry is with capping. I bet that cable companies will cap external content (so you pay extra when downloading from Netflix or Amazon) but don't cap downloaded content that they sell.
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|i just don't see our ISP's being up to task...at least here in The States...with Comcast going with a limit...Time Warner running an experiment with limited bandwidth...i just don't see how its going to work...even overly compressed HD movies are 5-6GB each and at current speeds there will be people waiting DAYS for movies that they have purchased...its going to be some time before people give up their physical discs...
Blu-ray will be fine...sales are way up...and prices are down...
idk how many times i've had to say it...but it took DVD 7 years before it caught up in yearly sales to VHS...to call BD a dead format now is just stupid...
and how can anyone really expect BD players and discs to cost what DVD's cost? DVD is an old ancient technology that has been out for over a decade...you want something that has been out less than a few years to cost the same?...it just doesn't work that way....technology takes time for prices to come down...DVD players and discs were not always so cheap...in many cases adjusted for inflation they were probably more expensive than BD players...
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|You are just a consumer that is in love with blu ray with no real idea what is in the making. I'm sure that the big companies have a much bigger clue than you ever will.
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|but he has a point...
ISP and media providers don't have to see eye to eye.. Broadband is fast, but not that fast. In 5 years ? Maybe, but I don't think so. US, Japan - but what about the rest of the world ?
Not to mention Bouns features and such. You'll have to stream the movie twice, just to listen to a commentary. In 2002 I've heard people talking about the "death of the CD". It's still here..
Plus, Blu-ray indeed cost more to produce, that's no secret.
Anyway, his guess is as good as yours/mine
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|I remember buying my Sony DVD player for over $400 when dvd's came out along with $30-35 a disc, For the longest time I had to keep my VHS player cause nobody made movies for um. My first DVD burner was over 600 for my computer. It recently died and I bought a new on for $18. A Sony one. The old one was Philips i believe. Prices do come down, but they take time.
To simply say bluray will be dead I also believe is false, and I am not a BR fan boy, I was HD DVD and they died. However with the slow migration to BR it may take a while, but its a pretty decent format and there is no reason not to move to it. Almost every NEW movie released is on BR now, or a posted that it will be coming soon.
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|no, see that is where you and your HD-DVD loving friends here at BetaNews fail to see...
I don't give two craps about Blu-ray...had HD-DVD come out on top...and this article said "HD-DVD dead in 5 years" i would have posted the same post with HD-DVD substituted for Blu-ray...i want the 100% best content out there...and right now...Blu-ray is hands down the TOP of the heap and will be for some years to come...
When digital distribution matches the quality of Blu-ray i'll be one of the first to switch...but its years off...Blu-ray is here for the foreseeable future...its going to come down to Movie Studio's vs the ISP's...is Time Warner willing to take the hit on its broadband networks to promote its movie studio??? only time will tell...but im thinking no...the ISP's (especially Warner) would not be so interested in capping DL's and then wanting you to be able to stream the data...
remember this comment is coming from a consumer electronics company which has NOTHING to do with how this new digital content would be delivered...
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|Everyone is worried about caps.
Has anyone thought about the particular ISP as the source of downloads?
Despite caps, Comcast doesn't count their pay per view or video material as part of that cap.
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|Other articles have said that the states has some of the slowest so called high speed access so maybe outside of the US this can and will happen.
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|"In fact, some have suggest that one of Microsoft's reasons...."
Who are those "some" ?
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|streaming HD... how many HD movies will you get on a 3gb per month allowance? How much will I get on my 50gb per month? As I already max out my allowance each month as it is.. streaming HD ain't coming my way anytime soon. I just can't afford it for one thing!
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|Hold on, let me call you a Waahmbulance...
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|Ok here is the Waahmbulance...just kidding...poor suckers in the larger cities with connections like Comcast that monitor and cap bandwidth. My cable company provides me 15Mbps for $65 and no monitoring or capping whatsoever. Guaranteed being in the IT industry, I download 1000's of GB a month. Some of the new technology to stream HD is definitely coming. TV will turn to online as will physical media. Bye bye video rental store. Of course it may be 5 plus years till then.
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|Why do so many assume that streaming HD will be essentially uncompressed 1080p files?
It doesn't have to be 1080p at all! The market has already determined that! Most are more than satisfied with lower res 'HD' and upscaled DVDs.
This notion that higher res is driving the market change, as opposed simply to the forced migration to digital misses the point that few were complaining about SDTV prior to the government's interference into the market.
Most people are quite satisfied with less than 1080p resolution. And even fewer are willing to pay for it.
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|.poor suckers in the larger cities with connections like Comcast that monitor and cap bandwidth
Uhh...
I have Comcast. 50mbit. 250GB cap. No problems.
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|Where the hell does comcast do 50mbit? I struggle to get 10mbit.
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|Minneapolis, MN.
Zoom, zoom.
I pay through the nose for it though.
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|While Blu-Ray is dead already, streaming HD is not for tomorrow nor the day after. The network is slowing down to a crawl as the crappy content is growing exponentially.
Hang onto your precious DVDs because you're gonna need them for the next ten years.
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|By George, I think he's got it!!!
I think you have identified the state of the industry and the near term very well.
And to the degree that Sony is unable to bring the price point down to where DVD players and media are currently. The platform will continue to languish as a niche platform as there is simply little compelling reason to spend exorbitant amounts for incremental improvement. And the fundamental incompatibility of the media with existing formats (the BIG advantage for HD-DVD) will not offset the capacity advantage which is still insufficient for many data usage.
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|Streaming HD is certainly the future, but the delivery infrastructure won't be ready to support it on a wide scale for a number of years.
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