TiVo Sees Positives, Negatives In Results

By Ed Oswald | Published November 30, 2006, 12:15 PM

While TiVo has managed to cut its losses and show some strength in subscribers, a lack of progress in its deals with Cox and Comcast combined with declining DirecTV subscribers are putting a drag on the company.

In addition, the need for the company to begin to generate real subscriber growth will cause it to swing to a much wider loss in the holiday quarter, it admitted.

For the third quarter, TiVo saw a loss of $11.1 million on revenues of $52.6 million, an increase of 22 percent. This loss is expected to balloon to as much as $38 million this quarter. The company said deep rebates on the retail front would be to blame for the expected wider deficit.

TiVo's expected tie-ins with both Comcast and Cox have still not come to fruition, and the company provided little guidance as to the progress of those offerings. Comcast has said that trials -- not a launch -- may happen during the first half of 2007. Cox has not provided any progress reports since the initial announcement.

This has seemed to worry investors; in midday Thursday trading, TiVo stock was down 9 percent to $5.73.

Investor skittishness has not stopped TiVo from signing new deals: it announced a new agreement with Mexican cable provider Cablevision, saying moving into international markets was important to the company's overall growth.

But the deals are not impressing financial analysts, who are chastising the Alviso, Calif. DVR maker for spending a lot of money without having much return.

For example, the company only gained 16,000 subscribers in the quarter to end at 4.4 million. Over the past year, the customer base has grown 11 percent, paltry by most standards.

Much of the problem is the loss of DirecTV subscriptions; that partnership provided a large majority of new subscribers to the company. Without it, TiVo has struggled to convince consumers that paying $12.95 -- or more -- for its stand-alone service is a worthwhile investment.

Amidst such critcism, TiVo is putting on a brave face, asking its detractors to be patient. "Our strategy remains clear: to drive our standing as the only branded and truly differentiated DVR in the world," CEO Tom Rogers said.

In a conference call, Rogers also painted a brighter picture for future quarters. About half of all new customers are signing up for three-year contracts. With cable-based TiVo services getting off the ground and a dependable revenue stream, things should get better, he said.

Comments

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They only added 16,000 customers because they are screwing their existing customers over! You are on VERY thin ice Tivo...

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Agreed! There's a warranty on the box, but if it breaks after 90 days, you get charged $49 for a new one! Why would I pay $49 for a busted box,especially since they break all the time?

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Too expensive for the service, and too stingy with the hardware. It's a simple fix, but they won't do it.

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plus their new 800hddvr wont work with satellite. So they lost out with some subscribers 100% regardless if they watned to use the new box or not(i have 2 friends who use satellite and wanted to use the new hd tivo box but cant) Also the direct tv one is only 300.

Now for cable subscribers its actually cheaper for them in monthly fees vs cox cable fees. Since the tivo service is basicaly 12.95 a month plus 2 cable cards 2.00each/ cox cable its 15.00 a month for hd dvr box and a 5.00 random digital gateway charge(you dont have this hidden 5 dollar charge when you use cable card for some reason). so 17.00 a month vs 20. its cheaper on the fee side except fot the nominal $800 cost to buy it.

But tivo's service blows everyone else away. The others are just glorified vcr's.

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The $800 is a nutty price. You can buy a good DVR for $500 anywhere else!

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Well what did they expect?

With more and more DVR type options out there that either do not require a monthly subscription or charge less than half for the service.

Who is going to buy something then have to pay a monthly fee just to use it?

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Well the monthly is pretty much only for the whole TV guide element. Downloading it and doing those season pass things. Pretty pricey for something something like that though :P

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