RSSWill Windows XP keep ruling the netbook?
By Jacqueline Emigh | Published April 9, 2009, 4:32 PM
Since the shipment last year of the earliest netbooks, Linux has fallen drastically behind Windows XP, according to new research by two industry analyst groups, Ovum and the NPD Group. Meanwhile, some people are touting both Windows 7 and the Android variant of Linux as future replacements of sorts for the existing netbook operating systems. Specifically, XP's share of netbook units shipped soared from less than 10% in the first half of 2008 to 96% as of February 2009, according to data released this week by NPD Retail Tracking Service.
"After a strong start, Linux netbooks have been overtaken by Windows," concurred Laurent Lachal, an Ovum analyst, in summing up the results of a new netbook report by Ovum.
But the Ovum analyst also pinpointed Google's Android as a Linux distribution that might work out better than its predecessors as a netbook OS.
Just this week, an Acer executive cast doubt on the notion that either Android or Windows 7 has reached readiness yet for netbooks.
Undoubtedly, the massive shift to XP is partly due to the late arrival of viable Windows-based netbooks. Asus led the way with a Linux netbook at the start of 2008. By November, however, Asus' emphasis had turned to XP -- in the United States, at least.
"Linux is going well for us, especially in Europe. But now we're focusing on Windows XP, becauuse a lot of people find it easier to use," Josh Norem, senior technical marketing specialist at Asus, told Betanews at a pre-CES press event in New York City in January.
The reversing tide impacted other vendors, too. In September of '08, when Dell rolled out with its first netbooks, only the Windows XP edition shipped initially.
But observers of various persuasions -- ranging from Microsoft to Canonical, the vendor supporting the Ubuntu flavor of Linux -- have reported high return rates for Linux PCs.
"Users simply expect the Windows experience. When they realize their Linux-based netbook PC doesn't deliver that same quality of experience, they get frustrated and take it back," contended Brandon LeBlanc, a "Windows Experience" blogger for Microsoft.
"Here's a telling stat: In the UK, Carphone Warehouse dropped Linux-based netbook PCs, citing customer confusion as a reason for a whopping 1-in-5 return rate."
In a post on the Microsoft blog last Friday, LeBlanc also declared that, over the year ahead, the next generation of netbook PCs will be outfitted with Windows 7, for "even richer experiences and greater utility."
At the very same time, Ovum has forecast a "new generation of lower-priced, but less easy to use and less capable netbooks" for later in 2009, according to Ovum's Lachal.
Linux vendors intrigued by this new, "sub-$200" netbook market should concentrate on "the netbook as an appliance and on specialized distributions, especially Android (which is currently focused on smartphones). These are more likely than generic distributions like Ubuntu to make it in the netbook MID (mobile Internet device) space," Lachal suggested.
Asus and FreeScale Semiconductor both revealed Android netbook plans in February, "And more will follow," the analyst predicted, in a March 16 blog post on telecomseurope.net.
Yet if consumers were frustrated by earlier $400 Linux netbooks, will those high return rates really get any lower for sub-$200 Android netbooks, especially when carriers like AT&T are already selling subsidized Windows netbooks from Acer, LG, and Dell for under $100?
Acer, for one, does not seem to be leaning in an Android direction at the moment for netbooks, despite its announcement of an Android smartphone in February and its reported activities in testing Android on bigger devices. At an Acer launch of new PCs earlier this week in New Jersey, Jim Wong, an Acer senior VP, maintained that Android doesn't yet provide the ability to "view a full Web" on netbooks.
Wong added that Windows 7 Starter Kit might not be a "good environment" for netbooks, either -- not at this point, anyhow.
But Android and Windows 7 are both still in the early stages -- and Microsoft is definitely undeterred about the future role of its 2009-model OS on netbooks.
"Looking forward, we can confidently say that no matter how netbook PC hardware evolves, we're gearing up to ensure that Windows 7 will run great on them," asserted Microsoft's LeBlanc. "We've been testing Windows 7 on netbook PCs since before Windows 7 was feature complete, and our plan is to enable these small notebook PCs to run any edition of Windows 7."
The big question is: "Will Windows XP keep ruling all PCs"? Answer is: YES, even if Windows 7 arrives.
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|Another anonymous twit with a crystal ball...
Where are they getting these things?
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|i expect the whole market to move on really.
not because of anything else than the positive reception it is having and so many people who are hoping to let XP rest in peace and don't have such a powerful machine as vista required.
(UNLESS... they keep shipping XP to force users to get a new license if they wanted 7!
holy crap! hope MS doesn't read this!)
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|I disagree. Windows 7 runs very well on current generation netbooks - and arguably better than XP. Given it's still only a beta, I can't imagine it getting any worse either. Netbooks might keep XP for a while, but I wouldn't be surprised if the next generation start coming out with Windows 7 pre-loaded.
Desktops is a moot point: new ones WILL go to Windows 7, as there won't be any support available for XP on those units. And unlike Vista, it'll be a more reliable and stable choice.
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|Ubuntu accuses Microsoft of Linux netbook FUD:
http://blogs.computerwor...ft_of_linux_netbook_fud
This is my personal opinion: Ubuntu desktop is perfect for a netbook. It looks nicer, less bloated, not more complex to use as most of people still think. And above all, safer to operate. No need to worry when there is a virus outbreak.
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|When it works. The performance of Ubuntu on my netbook (eeePC 1000H) is attrocious. Flash is horribly jerky, Firefox is slower, OO.org takes far too long to load, it's slow to boot....
Perhaps it'll change with 9.04. But the current version sucks ass. I do agree the interface is more suited, however.
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|This is crazy. This article reads like no one understands that a netbook can be formatted and any OS installed.
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|Microsoft should be proud of their XP and protect it. I find no real reason to "upgrade" or to move towards Linux.
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|Why do people continue to write stories about Linux losing share to Windows? I don't understand it. They make it out to be some sort of competition between Windows and Linux when in reality there is not one in the consumer pc market...I'm not only speaking to the fact that Windows market presence is so much greater and its a more user friendly operating system, but do the makers of Linux distributions actually make their distributions for the purpose of "competing" with Windows? I doubt it. I think they are more in the market for carving out a niche (especially since they know they will never compete).
Its like writing articles talking about the Microsoft Office market share vs that of Open Office, or Windows Media Player versus VLC, Windows Media Encoder versus VLC built in encoder, Photoshop versus The Gimp, etc. These products are not intended to compete against their closed-source, big money counterparts, they are simply meant to be free alternatives for someone looking for such.
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|"Why do people continue to write stories about Linux losing share to Windows? I don't understand it."
Right. I'm a Linux fan and even my most optimistic view is that it will never compete with Windows--at least not in its present form. It can't because people behind Linux have niche-based interests and no matter how good the Linux product is, those interests will never sufficiently coalesce to provide strong unified competition to Microsoft.
The fact that Linux is 'open' and better is irrelevant, we saw a similar scenario played out 20 or so years ago in the Betamax versus VHS debate when the technically superior omega-loop Betamax lost out to VHS's better marketing. The average 'PC Punter'--who'll determine the outcome--couldn't care less about such things. I dearly wish this wasn't so but unfortunately it is, in today's world marketing and propaganda are everything and the gullible and those who are indifferent just acquiesce. (History has shown us many times that gullibility and acquiescence amongst the populace is widespread, witness the outcome of the very effective marketing and propaganda on the 1930s. Even if the messages are evil and the outcomes tragic people are still easily sucked in.)
For Linux to become effective competition to Windows three things must happen:
1. Linux needs to become much more unified. Most of the distros need to go (or amalgamate) and that a unified Linux front must be presented and marketed to the world.
2. Linux has to be made much more Windows-like. Most people want to go to an appliance and have it work for them without fuss--same with PCs. Here Linux STILL offers considerable barriers; even though the Linux community has known about this issue for years, it has done very little to rectify the problem--for example WINE never seems to be finished, now it's too little too late. The WINE issue is but one of many. Similarly, even user-surveying Microsoft has been badly bitten by users rejecting Vista because of its significance difference to its predecessor XP.
You'd think users' rejection of Vista--a product from the same stable as XP--would awaken the Linux community into doing something about the Windows compatibility issue but apparently even this is not enough to move them. (Also, the world has slowly learned that relearning the same old stuff under another guise or cover without significant improvements or outcomes is essentially learning low-grade knowledge and wasted effort. For users, the status quo makes much more sense, and they've already applied this logic and thinking to Linux.)
The propeller-heads in the Linux movement are both cognisant and conscious of these facts but have essentially chosen to ignore them. In the grand wash up, their infatuation with underlying Linux technology is significantly more important to them than is compatibility with Windows. Tragically for Linux, it's another instance of where self-interest wins out over the utilitarian greater common good.
3. Unless some kind of worldwide unified Linux alliance is formed that involves large corporations and governments that use Linux and who want to see it promoted and developed further into a more unified and standardized product (and who will financially back this development) then I see Linux going nowhere. In today's world where markets and pragmatism are everything and 'altruism' has become a rarefied word hidden between the pages of dusty dictionaries, Linux will remain a lost cause relegated to the boondocks and relative obscurity.
Such is the stranglehold Microsoft has on the world that all three of the above must come together for Linux to even get a foot in the door. Anyone who has been in the IT game as long as I have will be aware of the tragic story of how IBM only accepted MSDOS for its PC as its second choice but in so doing it set in concrete the road for Bill Gates and Microsoft to dominate and monopolize the world's operating system market.
We urgently need strong competition in the operating systems market even if it is somewhat unequal (a la Intel and AMD--where the smaller player still can force effective competition). Sad and unfortunate as it is, Linux is unlikely to ever be that competitive smaller player.
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|Is it just me or are not #1 and #3 pretty much the same?
Not that I don't agree on all points (well, except for the highly subjective "better" comment).. ;-)
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|The points are all related but there are significant differences.
Point 1. refers to the many different Linux distributions in circulation and the confusion this causes in the marketplace. People/Corporations new to Linux spend considerable time trying to figure out which distro is best, and or has the best support or is most appropriate to their needs etc. Windows comes from one supplier thus the decision is much simpler--you run with M$ or you don't.
Point 2. says that Linux--the X Windows shell at any rate--should look and feel much more like Windows. Windows users should be able to go to a PC running Linux AND BE FOOLED INTO THINKING THAT THEY ARE RUNNING WINDOWS (at least initially). Gnome and KDE are just too different for the average Windows user and they cause a lot of resistance to Linux acceptance (especially to those who are thinking of converting). For them, staying with what they know is much easier and safer.
[I know many Linux die-hards will disagree citing the fact that the UNIX-like GUI (X Windows/CUA interface standards etc.) was around before Windows. True, but when you've been reduced to a pimple on a pumpkin you can no longer argue from a position of technical purity. I know it's very difficult for techies to accept that rational arguments rarely win in the face of blatant marketing and propaganda but it's true--the later wins every time (at least until the race is over). It's better to run with the winner and subvert from within--you can't do this if Linux fails or is reduced to running industrial controllers and traffic lights etc.
Remember, this is what happened to the forerunner of all NT Windows [NT/W2K/XP/Vista/Win7]--IBM's OS/2. In the war between IBM and Microsoft OS/2, despite initially being the best O/S, was reduced to rubble by superlative 'Gatesian' Marketing (there's no doubt that Gates is one of the best marketing strategists of all time). Anyway, the surviving remnants of OS/2 were relegated to running IBM banking ATMs. This ought to be a strong lesson for Linux adherents but I think the message has been lost in the eons of time. It seems that history might be about to repeat itself).]
Point 3. says that unless you're as big as Microsoft you won't have the clout to compete effectively or even at the same level. Current Linux distros are far too small to do that so the only option that's left is to amalgamate with other very large institutions such as governments. The open source nature of Linux is its strongest point, so the Linux community should put superhuman effort into convincing Governments around the world that using open-source Linux in preference to secret-source Windows is in their strategic best interest.
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P.S.: Apologies for not being more succinct. Noted your ref. to 'better'. The Linux community continually says Linux is 'better'. Maybe I've caught the Microsoft disease of being overly strong on hyperbole. Perhaps in the circumstances this is not a bad thing.
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|Nice analysis, thank you for your long and interesting post. Do you think that there is any positive move among Linux distros toward the grand unification?
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|I was hoping LSB would be a start, but that seems to have completely fallen off the egde of the world. ;)
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|Linux? If cost is the only object. Just like with the desktop...
Android? Win7?
They aren't even released in final functional form yet.
But I suspect Android will have the better chance as it should have greater application support than Linux. And it will be telling to see how this stacks up to Windows application availability.
But I get a kick out of how some are already evaluating NetBooks on the basis of gaming capabilities... So the gameboys will decide?????
Personally, I think the choice will depend more on what folks are already using. If the NetBook compliments an already established environment, I suspect that Windows XP or perhaps 7 will dominate. If it is a standalone device where syncing and sharing is not a factor, I suspect it is equally possible that Android may dominate.
But it is far too early to tell with both products for the platform still being essentially vaporware ...
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|You need to look up the term vaporware. Both products are out already (Win 7 is in beta and Android is in a phone already) so they can't be vaporware. Win 7 will come out and is on schedule and Android as a phone OS is pretty good.
Windows 7 will take over for XP on netbooks. Now Android, who knows if it can be a good desktop OS. Its pretty simple to use but how will it work with a touch pad and a bigger screen...or a mouse. Will it be to closed off for a netbook OS? Or will Google make it a more polished desktop OS like Apple did with OSX using FreeBSD? If they can pull that off then their could be another laptop/desktop OS on the market.
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|LOL!
Android haas been tested in various circles on the desktop, and the kernel and extensions ARE present.
And when Windows 7 comes out...
Indeed.
But like it or not, we are making pronouncements on products neither of which have been offoicielly released in a 'final form'.
So ALL speculation is just that! Speculation based upon speculation.
And that is little more than hot air.
Sorry if I did not use the term "previews of formally unreleased environments still under development".
What ia even more hilarious that your taking issue with the tongue in cheel use of the term vaporware are the myriad reviews and prognostications of the products.
I would suggest that almost everything to do with this thread is vaporous as nothing is based upon real officially released shipping products labeled as suitable for the purpose (despite Android ALREADY having everything coded and present).
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|I tested XP and Windows 7 on my MSI Wind and I have to say it runs faster on Windows 7 and longer on batteries too. I think mainly becuase the hardware is geared for Windows newer OS's I even did it with Vista and the hardware speed tests showed the following
3.2 on Windows 7
2.9 on Vista
World of Warcraft ran as following
8 FPS on XP
10 on Vista
12 on Windows 7
Soooo what do you all think?
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|I'm amazed at the simple fact that you even tested WoW on a netbook... that takes brawn! lol
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|"Soooo what do you all think?"
Well, for one I couldn't care less, nor would I buy a NetBook for games.
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|Ehhh its just a backup to play WOW when im away from home, I normally have a desktop powerhouse for WOW. Just nice to know it can do it and do it pretty well.
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|The key is compatibility, wine doesn't solve all the problems unfortunately...
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|When my sister can (and is willing to) use a Netbook with Linux there may be a chance a chance for it to succeed.
This means:
- A Windows XP like interface
- Ultra easy connectivity
- Simple & fast Office Compatible (interface and other) wp/spreadsheet/email
- Good browsing
- Effortless music & video
- Not command line - not ever - not in any way!!!
As for Win 7 - I am sure that MS will tweak it to the point where performance is reasonable. However, I suspect that the more asinine aspects of their "edition" policy may well sabotage it - plus it really isn't like using XP so (I believe) a large majority of user will be reluctant to use it even if it's substantially better.
In fact it's pretty clear what people really want: something just like XP!
Except that it's faster, it never slows down whatever you install (& uninstall works perfectly.) And, of course, there is no need for a virus checker because there is zero risk of infection regardless of what you install or where you browse.
Place your orders with Santa & the Tooth Fairy now!
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|"- A Windows XP like interface" -> KDE4
"- Ultra easy connectivity" -> hasn't been much of an issue in the past 6 months. Most WiFi and 3G cards are now autodetected.
"- Simple & fast Office Compatible (interface and other) wp/spreadsheet/email" -> OpenOffice and Evolution...
"- Good browsing" -> Firefox and Opera
"- Effortless music & video" -> (RythymBox or Amrok) and Totem. All are good players, however you need to install the additional GStreamer codecs (a simple install, but it still needs to be done)
"- Not command line - not ever - not in any way!!!" -> Given that I am a power user, I love command line, but, you can get away with running Linux (any recent distro) without ever having to open a terminal session.
Not that I am a die-hard fan of Linux (I like it, I use it, it has it's uses), but Ubuntu has come a long, long way in terms of user interface and simplicity. I had Ubuntu Netbook Remix (based on Hardy 8.04) running on a HP Mini 1033CL. It was surprisingly well rounded and responsive. I only had to do a terminal session once and that was to fix something in Mono. Aside from that, as with Windows, everything just worked.
"plus it really isn't like using XP so (I believe) a large majority of user will be reluctant to use it even if it's substantially better." -> Like all previous versions, you can revert to an XP interface, albeit ugly as hell...
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|People buy netbooks for the ultimate in ease-of-use. Did anyone honestly think that segment of the home computer market would really be choosing Linux over Windows? Duh. Talk about a no-brainer.
[Bring on the flamers] The Linux community should really give up on the home computer environment and concentrate their efforts on the server environment. They haven't been able to crack 2% desktop market share after a couple decades, and it'll never happen.
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|Agreed!
As a Linux lover I find it upsetting but the facts speak for themselves. Linux just doesn't have the clout nor does it offer enough advantages over Windows. Moreover, I've tried Windows 7 (build 7000) on my tiny Eee PC notebook and it runs just fine.
Nevertheless, I don't like Windows 7 at all. I find it a struggle to get rid of all the dross, fairy-floss and other unnecessary graphics overhead in order to make it look like Windows 2000--with XP this at least was achievable.
That said however, I'm now of the opinion that Windows-7 will not only conquer the netbook market but it will also do very well in the server market too. It's pretty clear to me that Linux will have a struggle to hang onto the server market from its new aggressive competitor--Windows-7.
Microsoft is tenacious and its goals are often longer term (think of those early Windows prior to first successful one--Windows 3.1--and you'll know what I mean; Microsoft has come a long and very successful way since then). On the other hand Linux development is essentially dispersed, uncoordinated and headless: and besides where's the 20-year plan--the road-map for its future development?
Of course there is none!
.
I wish what I've said weren't true, I would have loved Linux to succeed but that's now a forlorn hope as every day its fortunes seem to be sinking further downward. (See my post further above that justifies my assertions.)
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|I have to agree... the linux desktop market is really falling flat on it's face. However, there is still a future for Linux as an embedded and targeted environment. Currently there are hundreds of successful products (Tivo being the first that comes to mind) on the market that are using Linux as their underlying operating system and that is one market that Microsoft has never really been too successful at (look at bank ATMs and the numerous amounts of issues that are reported daily about this error or that error. I have personally encountered quite a few ATMs that were down because of some problem with Windows, one of which was sitting at the desktop on a bright, sunny Saturday afternoon! lol)...
So far, it seems that the only distribution that is having any success so far is Ubuntu but who's to say that it won't change in the next year (much as it did with Redhat, Fedora, Suse, and such).
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|Where is the MiniMac netbook with a built in iPod dock?
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|You're just inviting trouble, ain't ya?! lmao
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|Linux or XP is about the only thing that will be functional on a net book. They're too stripped down to handle Vista. Perhaps the 2nd edition of Vista a.k.a. Windows 7 will perform good on net books.
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|By the time Windows 7 is released that probably won't be true anymore. It isn't unreasonable to think that whatever replaces the current line of Atom processor in the next generation of netbooks will be fast enough for Vista or Windows 7 to be a practical. If the current processors were dual core or had a higher bus speed I could see some interest in shipping netbook with other operating systems.
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|I couldn't even get Vista to load on my netbook.
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|Perhaps Windows 7 already runs very well on netbooks. :)
It's been done, with excellent results. A little Google search would have provided you with that little insight.
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|Leo Laporte on Twit TV has the beta of windows 7 on a netbook and he sings praises how well it works so I think windows 7 will take over XP on netbooks. I'm not sure about Android, I myself have only seen it on a phone so I don't know how it will be on a netbook. It would be interesting to see. If Android is good enough then maybe it'll be on notebooks and desktops as well if Google can make it another linux distro. If its as easy as it is on the Gphone it could give Apple OSX a run for its money. Never know, skys the limit if it hits it big with netbooks it could give google the idea to expand it into a distro and make it a desktop OS.
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|Win7 on a netbook is an amazing experience... much, much better than WinXP and any Linux distro so far. I've been running it since build 7000 and I have seen more power and performance (plus extended battery life) in a beta build than I have in the full release of WinXP.
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