Xbox 360 to Double Holiday PS3 Sales?

By Scott M. Fulton, III, BetaNews

October 27, 2006, 12:20 PM

UPDATE October 27, 2006, 5:35 pm ET: Late this afternoon, a spokesperson for Microsoft confirmed to BetaNews that CFO Chris Liddell's prediction of four million more Xbox 360 consoles sold between now and the end of the year, is an accurate one. The spokesperson did clarify the meaning of "sell:" Liddell was referring to sales to retailers and distributors (wholesalers and resellers), not to end customers. If NPD were to make an assessment of Xbox 360 end customer sales next January, we were told, that number could be different.

Liddell did not mean "ship" instead of "sell," we were assured. Conceivably, the company could ship fewer units than it sells, though with inventory windows narrow, the book-to-bill ratio in this case is probably fairly even.

With only 65 days remaining in the calendar year, for Microsoft to reach this goal, it would have to sell nearly 43 Xbox 360 consoles worldwide every minute, or at least three units every four seconds.

With Microsoft having experienced some uncharacteristic rough goings toward the end of its last fiscal year, as it began realizing the differences between manufacturing hardware and producing software, the company appears to be just beginning to emerge from out of the storm.

A 70% annual growth rate in its entertainment and devices revenues was mainly credited for helping Microsoft post higher than expected operating income of $4.47 billion, on revenue of $10.81 billion -- on the high side of estimates -- for its fiscal first quarter 2007 just ended.

That growth rate helped eliminate one of the two lead weights that had been a drag on the company's numbers all last fiscal year. But the big news to come emerged during the company's guidance for the next quarter: Microsoft intends to sell 4 million more Xbox 360 consoles between now and the end of this year, which is about nine weeks away.

As Chief Financial Officer Chris Liddell stated, Microsoft has already sold 6 million Xbox 360 consoles since its launch in November 2005. As you'll recall, that launch did not exactly go so swimmingly, with not even a million units sold worldwide by January. In his guidance, he said the company predicts it will have sold 10 million units by the end of the calendar year, and between 13 and 15 million units by the end of the fiscal year (next June).

Keep your calculators out for a minute: Some Sony executives have estimated it will be able to make about 2.2 million PlayStation 3 consoles available throughout the holiday season. But others admit the company will only have 500,000 units available worldwide for its mid-November launch, which is less than half the number of Xbox 360s available for launch at the same period last year.

With NPD Group having estimated Microsoft only sold 600,000 units during a six-week period, and with that number representing about half what the company is believed to have produced, even with demand staggeringly high, Sony may be lucky to outsell Microsoft's year-ago numbers.

Since Microsoft is already known to lose a chunk of change with each Xbox 360 it sells, due to the high cost of production, where is the company's higher revenue for the entertainment division coming from? The answer, we learned yesterday, is in "software attach" - the subsidiary purchase that all new console owners make, otherwise the investment is pointless.

The gaming industry's magic number, Microsoft admitted last year, is four - meaning, with every console sold, a manufacturer hopes that the customer will also buy four games. Late last year at Xbox 360's premiere, that number was actually closer to three.

But now, Chris Liddell told investment analysts yesterday, that number is five, and climbing.

If your calculators are still warm: The industry average price for a console video game is $50. With a software attach rate of 5, that makes $250. Retailers make astonishingly little margin from that figure - around 10%. So take $225, of which the manufacturer's gross margin is around 30%. That's $67.50. Multiply that by four million, and you're looking at Microsoft's upcoming holiday season, in which it expects to earn as much as 75% more than it did from entertainment and devices the prior year.

Also, as Liddell mentioned yesterday, as Xbox 360's design is maturing, it's costing less to produce with each passing quarter. "Last year, we saw slightly higher costs per console, and this year...we're experiencing better costs per console. We're sticking clearly with our view of being cost-neutral over the console life, and this year is shaping up very well."

By "cost-neutral," he means he expects the company to break even, having reaped as much as was sewn in production costs by the end of Xbox 360's marketable life, which could come in three to four years' time.

Add to this the fact that Microsoft's investment in online entertainment services is finally starting to pay off, Liddell said, as membership in the Xbox Live service topped 4 million during the previous quarter. The company's revenue from interactive gaming alone doubled over this time last year, he noted, which is really an admission that its growth rate is about 100% annually.

Does this mean Microsoft's a game company now? Let's look at the figures in perspective: Its Client division (whose principal product is currently Windows XP) garnered $3.3 billion in revenue in the prior quarter alone, up 4% annually. Server and Tools revenue was $2.5 billion for the quarter, up a staggering 17% annually on the continued strength -- from out of nowhere, it seems -- of SQL Server. Only Online Services (mainly MSN) continued its steady decline of 4% annually, to $540 million in revenue.

So while it might be nice to have a video game manufacturing company that reaps a billion and change per quarter, the Xbox 360 represents only 9.5% of the company's business.

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By Hollywood__

edited Oct 30, 2006 - 5:41 PM

Alright, I talked to everyone in the country who pre-ordered a PS3 and not one of them said they are going to buy Blu-Ray movies.

So that's that.

www.thedvdwars.com

Score: 0

By drumcat

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 11:09 PM

Mark Gillespie obviously bought into SNE back when it was in the $50's. Thankfully the PS3's won't have the self-destructing batteries...

Score: 0

By wincement

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 11:15 PM

What's an SNE?

Score: 0

By SamppaX

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 9:00 AM

Ok, I'm gonna wait for PS3 to come and see if I get what they promised. Maybe i just buy both PS3 & Xbox360 ^^ hehe...

I own PS2 & Xbox now so... I'm neutral & I just love to play... =)

Score: 0

By wincement

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 11:16 PM

It's all about XBOX 360 + Wii for me. =)

Score: 0

By mshulman

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 3:17 PM

If you are truly neutral, I'd compare them both and see which makes more sense to own.

They are both going to have the majority of the same games with a few exclusives, so unless PS3 features better gameplay, bluray interests you or their online gaming is really great, I'd say 360 is the way to go.

If however any of the 3 things I mention above are true, then PS3 might be the better choice. Without those 3 items though, 360 is the same but less expensive.

Score: 0

By foxfyre

edited Oct 30, 2006 - 10:07 AM

Compare platforms? You mean actually USE them both before judging the other?

If this common sense protocol was made pre-requisite to posting on this site, there would only be 2 or 3 people. And then their comments might actually be based upon reality rather than upon emotion.

Great idea. But unfortunately I fear it is dead before you finish positing it.

Score: 0

By Arakiel

posted Oct 30, 2006 - 10:50 AM

It's Apples fault

Score: 0

By ogman

posted Oct 28, 2006 - 12:44 PM

Read this: http://www.dilbert.com/c...e/dilbert-20061027.html

Then read this thread. ;o)

Score: 0

By Das mod

edited Oct 27, 2006 - 6:43 PM

wow,...
so Microsoft people actually read BN ???
perhaps i should consider stop being so obscene when posting my comments.
..... oh.... wait ....
wrong article....

***obscenity continues***

Score: 0

By Hollywood__

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 6:19 PM

Mark,

You are always in every topic spouting trash about a gaming console and Blu_ray player that don't exist.

I think you are a Sony employee planted in the forums to make sure there is always some positive spin on more bad news for Sony.

No one will be able to get thier hands on PS3's this holiday season, and the only one's who will spend the time to camp out in front of Best Buy are hardcore gamers, not Blu-Ray movie watchers.

More bad news for Sony seeing that they are taking a huge hit on every console. By the way, I already have my PS3 ready to be picked up on the 17th.

I will wait about 3 weeks and then it's straight to eBay for triple the price about a week before Christmas.

www.thedvdwars.com

Read the truth

Score: 0

By Mark Gillespie

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 4:39 AM

Ha, seems you have been left high and dry, as Ebay are blocking PS3 re-sales... After parasites like you made a killing on XBox360's last year...

Score: 0

By terminalx

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 6:08 PM

seems like they are still selling on ebay yet...

http://search.ebay.com/ps3_W0QQssPageNameZWLRS

Score: 0

By Hollywood__

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 5:05 PM

I decided to keep mine anyways, there may be a few good games that are exclusive to PS3 and there will always be movies I really want that are only Blu-Ray.

It makes sense to have both players if you can afford them although it would kill me to put money in Sony's pocket.

I don't agree with everyones one-sidedness however, especially yours. You have nothing good to say about HD_DVD or M$.

I don't like M$ that much myself but the fact is we are stuck with that Gates retard for as long as I can see. At least we have a choice over the next HD format. Someone has to lose.

You may be right, the PS3 may boost Blu_Ray movie sales enough to make a difference but not enough to catch up or surpass HD-DVD. Each PS3 buyer would have to buy more than ten movies each to make a dent.

We will see, it should be interesting.

Score: 0

By Hollywood__

posted Oct 30, 2006 - 5:32 PM

On second thought, I could use the 2000 dollars to buy a crapload of HD-DVD titles and another 360 for my theater.

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By siryak

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 12:01 PM

Are you serious!? That would suck to go round up a bunch in hopes of reselling then lol. Well I guess you could use yahoo auctions maybe...

Score: 0

By mshulman

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 3:18 PM

Theyre only preventing the pre-sales of them. Once its actually released, they'll allow sales. They just don't want people selling something they don't have and are not ever guaranteed to get by a certain date.

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By Mark Gullible Fanboy

edited Oct 27, 2006 - 7:19 PM

Fanboys have no life, didn't you know. When your life sucks and is meaningless all you can do is go on the internet and spout off about a company acting like you own it. If Sony ever disappeared I don't know what I'd do. They are my life!

Score: 0

By Mark Gillespie

posted Oct 28, 2006 - 4:40 AM

Actually you posting as "Mark Gullible Fanboy" shows that actually YOU have no life...

I am not afraid to post under my real name, you sir, are a coward.

This is also the last reply I will make to your pathetic comments.

Score: 0

By Mark Gullible Fanboy

edited Oct 28, 2006 - 12:18 PM

You're mistaken, I am your fanboy consciousness. The part that is not afraid to tell the truth instead of hiding behind lies or running away when someone challenges your remarks, the way you are running away now. Don't hide from the truth. You spread your love for Sony but you don't admit what a raving zealot it takes to do that. That's my job, to show the world what consumer sheep we are to take time and post on forums about how great some company or product is. You are the leader of all fanboys, even greater than DaveBG because you actually believe the crap you are saying. Join with me, together we will rule the ...well we will rule something. Long live Sony!

Score: 0

By wincement

posted Oct 28, 2006 - 6:34 PM

Shut up, moron.

NOTHING on here is more annoying than your posts. You're not original. You're not funny. You don't even provide any entertainment value with how pathetic you are.

Score: 0

By crashoverride

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 10:17 PM

I dunno.... I always find people making fools of themselves very entertaining. Half the time they don't even realize they are doing it (Case in point above you). That fact alone makes it funny.

Score: 0

By Hollywood__

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 5:19 PM

I like the post.

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By Mark Gillespie

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 12:55 PM

Hardly suprising. Xbox360 has been out over a year, PS3 is brand new. Does not take a rocket scientist to understand that Microsoft can make as many as they can sell, but Sony only sell as many as they can make...

Score: 0

By plague201

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 2:56 PM

Marky youve stated plenty of times that xbox360's are up on the shelves. Are you changing your view on this?

Score: 0

By mshulman

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 1:08 PM

I agree. This is really kind of a pointless argument.

What I think would be interesting to know is how many people or parents won't be able to get a PS3 and will get a 360 instead?

Score: 0

By Mark Gillespie

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 1:53 PM

Who's arguing? I was stating the article is not really news.

As for how many PS3 poitential owners come out of stores with a Xbox360, some for sure, but not that many, as Xbox360 has been available for a year now, it's not seen any substantial price drops, so people that have not been tempted and bought already, are not likely to be bothered by anouther couple of months for a PS3.

Score: 0

By mshulman

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 2:01 PM

I meant to say article, not argument - it wasn't directed at you.

I think you might underestimate how many children may be asking for a console for the holidays. Many kids rely on holidays for gifts of this size and may not have been able to get anything last year.

Not to mention - how many parents will spend $600 on a holiday gift when they can spend $400 on a similiar gift? Unfortunately, I think too many will, but I still think there are a large number that won't.

Regardless, unless the PS3 is steps above the 360, I think many buying A console this year, when seeing the 2 side by side, may change their minds. And if the PS3 is steps above, they may change it from buying a 360 to PS3.

Score: 0

By The Man

posted Oct 28, 2006 - 3:09 PM

"I think you might underestimate how many children may be asking for a console for the holidays."

one word...Wii

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By wincement

posted Oct 28, 2006 - 6:48 PM

Yup... I mean heck, I'm asking for one. =p

Score: 0

By crashoverride

posted Oct 30, 2006 - 9:34 PM

Ditto

Score: 0

By reitwagen

edited Oct 27, 2006 - 2:59 PM

I've already told my 12 year old son that he will not be getting a PS3 for the holidays. And he, to my surprise, told me that was fine because he wanted a Wii more than a PS3. He's never mentioned wanting an Xbox 360. I know this is anecdotal and perhaps atypical, but kids talk and this may be a big holiday season for Nintendo. For the record, I think he has too many consoles already (PS2/GC/PSP/GBA) and will only be getting gifts this year that help get him out of the house rather than in front of a TV.

Score: 0

By mshulman

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 4:29 PM

I think most kids have too many toys to keep them in doors. I remember having some as a kid, but we spent a lot of time outdoors since my parents set limits (something most don't).

Seeing you mention the Wii made me think of something. I know very little about it, but the controls are nearly 100% based on movement, correct? I wonder if we'll see any repetetive stress injuries as a result of it?

I'm also very curious to see how much fun it is if thats really the only way you can play it - I would think people may get tired of all the motion.

Score: 0

By terminalx

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 2:47 PM

since you also brought up the WII I thought I would add my input as well...gamestop had 40,000 units and those sold out already and toysrus is doing its pre-orders today....last night I was at toys r us shopping for my daughter (shes 2 so no video games for her yet) but there was a long line of kids and I think parents in sleeping bags waiting just to PREORDER the wii...its based on movement and to be used as regular games...because with the wii you will be able to play all the classics, 8 bit, 16 bit, sega, turbographix, n64 of course you probably have to pay something to play them but the fact the ability is there is a nice addition...so personally I think nintendo is going to have a whole new audience of people who do not play games or have a hard time with the controllers...so I dont believe they will cut into ps3 or xbox260 because it would appear they are going for a new generation

Score: 0

By mshulman

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 3:20 PM

"its based on movement and to be used as regular games"

All I've seen for a controller is the rectangular looking thing. Is there more to it?

I really do question what kind of injuries we may see though - think about all the injuries that have come up from typing or using a mouse. Its really just an unknown as to how this type of gaming may physically affect someone.

Score: 0

By Paradise-FH-

edited Oct 27, 2006 - 1:14 PM

i'd be more likely to believe this if halo 3 was coming out this holiday season.

Score: 0

By Jedite

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 1:41 PM

The answer in short is Gears Of War. It is being advertised as the Halo of the 360. Offcourse reviews are not in yet, however the Game has gone gold and we should expect reviews some time next week, along with some HEAVY marketing.

Score: 0

By mshulman

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 1:43 PM

If that's playing on the kiosks in stores, it could help have impact.

I'm actually most curious to see how the PS3 kiosks hold up. It would certainly hurt sales if kiosks start failing due to heat. Just look at X06 (or whatever event it was) when PS3's needed reboots consistently and heat was an issue. Exhibit halls are kept cold - stores are not and the kiosks will likely have less airflow.

I would hope Sony has worked this issue out.

Score: 0

By Mark Gillespie

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 1:55 PM

I'm sure they have.

However, you can also be sure that as soon as any single PS3 fails, Betanews, The Inquirer, and the other gutter press will be running the "My $500 console lasted a week" stories... Fickle people would have forgotten Xbox360 failure rates...

Score: 0

By plague201

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 2:59 PM

Werent these the same stories posted for the xbox360 when it came out? Shouldn't be of surprise, every system will get their share of bad reviews.

Score: 0

By mshulman

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 2:05 PM

I don't care about the failure rates of consoles that are sold to end users (unless its astronomical). I'm more concerned with kiosks failure rates.

I've seen many 360 kiosks that have failed, but they've all been 6 months after release. If the PS3 was having trouble running over a weeks time, I really question how they'll hold up in these kiosks.

And I'm not really sure how Sony could have fixed it - only thing possibly would be a redesign of the kiosks they are using and have lots and lots of airflow. Either way, it will still be more restrictive than it would be in users homes.

I guess we'll find out soon - shouldn't we start to see kiosks in stores?

Score: 0

By Jedite

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 2:15 PM

Microsoft survived this problem with the now infamous Brick on a String aka the powersupply was indipendant from the actual Xbox360.

Sony having the the PowerSupply inside the PS3 which also looks like its pretty tightly designed as far as space is concerned might be the thing that caused and might cause future heating problems. Offcourse there are ways to fix this issue however given the tight time frame they are in I dont know how good those changes might have been.

Score: 0

By plague201

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 3:00 PM

They WILL have the same problems as the xbox360, but worse. You can quote me on that in 2 months.

Score: 0

By siryak

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 5:22 PM

You sir are correct. They have more stuff in about the same size space. They are already overheating and they haven't even hit the shelves yet. Also I am sure there will be that group of people that will keep their PS3 cooped up and it will overheat and die within probably a week max. I know that Xbox 360s aren't perfect in this department either. But I must say I am worried about the PS3s.

Score: 0

By Mark Gillespie

edited Oct 27, 2006 - 6:04 PM

Just because XBox360 overheats, and PS3 has more in it, does not mean it will also have heat issues...

a) totally different techology CPU/GPU. Not even based on the same size die, so PS3 shold be lower TDP.

b) heat pipes, PS3 has heat pipes to transfer heat out of the unit, XBox360 does not.

"Cool, Quiet, Easy To Program For..", the 1st 2 are still issues with Xbox360's even today, and the last one was always criticism from Xbox fanboys without any inside knowledge..

http://uk.ps3.ign.com/articles/726/726255p1.html

I admit those comments are based on the dev kits, in bigger boxes, but even Sony have quoted 22db (slightly less than a slimlime PS2)

Score: 0

By siryak

posted Oct 28, 2006 - 12:16 AM

Yah ok meet yah at the PS3 overheating news article...

Score: 0

By Mark Gillespie

posted Oct 28, 2006 - 4:38 AM

There WILL surely be one, as sites like to sensationalise news stories. I will only take 1 PS3 owner who put theirs in a close cupboard, and it overheated to start a story off.

When there are reports of 1 in 3 consoles failing, like initial Xbox360 failures rates, then there something to report...

Score: 0

By mshulman

posted Oct 28, 2006 - 9:34 AM

And where do you get this 1 in 3 number?

Score: 0

By Mark Gillespie

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 4:05 AM

http://biz.gamedaily.com...ustry/feature/?id=13636

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By mshulman

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 3:24 PM

That really doesn't prove a thing.

For example, I spoke to a friend of mine who works at Microsoft and he said failure rates are well within electronics limits. I suppose if I was a writer for a gaming website, I could create an article with the total opposite spin from the one you posted.

If you are going to give numbers, at least give numbers that are reliable or at least provided by more than 1 source. Oh.. and they should be confirmed too.

Score: 0

By siryak

posted Oct 28, 2006 - 10:05 AM

There was a friend that heard it from an ex-girlfriend that heard it from an ex-boyfriend who heard it from an aunt who heard it from a cousin who heard it from his neighbors dog.

Score: 0

By wincement

posted Oct 28, 2006 - 6:36 PM

...who heard it from his bone.

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By The Man

posted Oct 28, 2006 - 3:13 PM

woof!

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By plague201

edited Oct 27, 2006 - 6:24 PM

"b) heat pipes, PS3 has heat pipes to transfer heat out of the unit, XBox360 does not."

So explain to me why kiosks are over-heating?

Eitherway, I'll be proven right in 2 months.

Score: 0

By bourgeoisdude

edited Oct 27, 2006 - 6:48 PM

Actually, Mark has a good point here. JUST because they are about the same size and PS3 has more does not mean it WILL have problems. There's an entire job field out there dedicated to this thing we call Engineering.

However, this does not prove they will NOT have heat problems either. Again, people can and will lie about circumstances, both with 360 failures and PS3's, but the number of failures withen the first month or so on the PS3's compared to the amount shipped should be proportional to the number of Xbox 360's sold vs. failed. If Sony has more failures per million PS3 units sold, for example, than 360 failures per million sold, or vice versa--that's a pretty fair and accurate comparison, since it is likely that just as many people lied about 360 failures as will lie about PS3 failures.

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By Mark Gillespie

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 6:41 PM

There is only some flimy hear-say about overheating problems at TGS...

The bottom line, is kiosks have LOADS of room inside, room for bigger fans, and the enviroment in a store is noiser so they can stack more of them, so if cooling a kiosk really was ploblematic as the TGS reports imply, cooling a livingroom PS3 would be impossible task to fix in the 3 months between TGS and launch..

Score: 0

By mshulman

posted Oct 28, 2006 - 12:29 AM

I don't think units overheating in homes will be much more of an issue that it is for the 360.

I do think however the kiosks may pose more of a problem. And I don't know about you, but I think most people when going to buy something might think twice if it doesn't even work in the store.

Score: 0

By Mark Gullible Fanboy

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 7:11 PM

There was no overheating PS3s, it's all a horrible lie. I'm covering my ears, na na na, it's not true. The PS3 is the greatest thing ever created. Don't try to tell me different, because I won't believe it. I love Sony!

Score: 0

By plague201

posted Oct 30, 2006 - 12:40 PM

LMAO

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By bobthegoat2001

posted Oct 28, 2006 - 2:39 AM

Holy crap, that's funny! I have to catch my breath now.

Score: 0

By wincement

posted Oct 28, 2006 - 6:37 PM

Please, please, PLEASE...

Don't encourage him.

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By bobthegoat2001

posted Oct 29, 2006 - 12:07 AM

Sorry

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By mshulman

posted Oct 27, 2006 - 4:36 PM

I agree.

It seems they'd be better off making a console that would be the size of a standard stereo system component. It could then fit right in and heat would never be an issue as there would be plenty of space. Kind of like a media center pc.

I guess it wouldn't look "cool" though if they did it that way.

Score: 0