RSSBlackBerry shipments grew five times faster than iPhone in Q3
By Joe Wilcox | Published November 5, 2009, 2:40 PM
Despite last week's blog and news assertions that iPhone market share had reached 30 percent or even 40 percent, today IDC put Apple's smartphone smack in its place: No. 3, with 17.1 percent worldwide smartphone market share during third quarter. A year earlier, Apple ranked ahead of Research in Motion, which has reclaimed second spot, behind Nokia.
Manufacturers shipped 43.3 million smartphones during third quarter, up 3.2 percent from 41.9 million units in second quarter and up 4.2 percent from 41.5 million units in third quarter 2008. More broadly, manufacturers shipped 287.1 million handsets, up 5.6 percent year over year, according to IDC.
Nokia's overall handset and smartphone markets shares were almost identical, 37.8 percent and 37.9 percent, respectively. For smartphones, second-ranked RIM posted year-over-year shipment growth of 35.7 percent growth, compared to 7.1 percent for Apple. While iPhone is doing quite well, BlackBerry is doing much better. RIM shipments increased from 6 million to 8.2 million units year over year, while Apple shipments grew much less -- from 6.9 million to 7.4 million units.
Last week, I blogged that "iPhone cannot win the smartphone wars" and about a month ago that "iPhone's global success is more myth than marketing reality." Same day as my post from last week, ChangeWave released survey results asserting that BlackBerry smartphone market share was 40 percent, while Apple had reached 30 percent.
On October 27th, an Apple 2.0 blog post about the ChangeWave data set off a series of follow-up/copycat reports claiming that iPhone was in "striking distance" of BlackBerry, including All Things Digital, CNET, National Post, Technologizer and The Unofficial Apple Weblog, among, many, many, many others. Reports of iPhone soon overtaking BlackBerry were seemingly everywhere late last week.
But in keeping with reservations I expressed on Twitter last week: Apple's smartphone market share is nowhere near 30 percent. It's still quite aways from 20 percent. I tweeted: "Busy street. Do you see 3 iPhones or 4 BlackBerries for every 10 smartphones? No? Why then believe ChangeWave's 30% iPhone share claim?"
Several people responded that they in fact did see numbers that high. Michael Gartenberg, Interpret's vice president of strategy and analysis, tweeted: "it's all anecdotal which means nothing. That's why we do surveys ;)" To which I responded: "Right, but you also publish methodology with those surveys. This one has only number of people. Demographics unclear."
ChangeWave's presentation of the data reflects larger problems with how online news is degenerating into a mass grab for traffic and page views. ChangeWave was highly selective, presenting only market share data on Apple, Palm and RIM smartphones. The data polarized around BlackBerry and iPhone, conflict sure to make great blog titles and news headlines, particularly with Apple an endlessly hot topic. Meanwhile, ChangeWave's online report offered scant methodology -- other than number of people surveyed -- to support its findings.
ChangWave's methodology is much different than IDC's. The survey method gives a snapshot of what people are using now, which can be a very useful metric. But typically surveys are online, with people self-selecting to participate (I can only assume that's how ChangeWave collected the data). Self-selected surveys can skew the data, particularly for devices like BlackBerry and iPhone, which might have higher connected audience -- among other factors.
By comparison, IDC's data is more exact by counting the number of smartphones actually shipped during a three-month time period. While the data is more precise, it's less likely to reveal overall usage share -- something a well-done survey can do.
Gartner also counts number of units, but differently than IDC. Gartner counts sales to end users, while IDC tracks total units shipped, which doesn't necessarily mean sold. That's why Gartner unit shipments for iPhone are typically lower than Apple's shipment data, which corresponds with IDC data. Both Apple and IDC count shipments into the channel. The difference also explains why Gartner has consistently put BlackBerry ahead of iPhone, based on actual smartphone sales.
All three methodologies are useful for measuring a product's success, but in different ways. Gartner's data will contrast against IDC's, both offering necessary views on number of smartphones shipped and those actually sold. Gartner hasn't yet publicly released third-quarter smartphone shipment data.
As for iPhone, I predict the smartphone will remain in third place as long as US distribution is locked to a single carrier. Gartner predicts that by fourth quarter 2012, Android phones will be second to Symbian-based handsets (mostly from Nokia), with BlackBerry and iPhone neck-and-neck but RIM's device ahead.
Ha! Nokia has 37.9 market share, but the article title is "Blackberry shipments grew... faster than iPhone".
Joe, are you bending the stats? Manipulate (the statistics) is a bad thing... What is next? Would you cut the graph to show the second as first?
If you have good will, please be careful...
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|@Floodland The post is more response to the over-obsessive blog and news site hype about iPhone. Nokia's share speaks for itself in the charts. They're there for a reason. But also observe that Nokia broader handset shipments declined 8 percent year over year.
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|so nokia has 37.9 percent of "smartphone" market.
Can someone tell me with a straight face that you have use a S60 phone that does not have a full keyboard or touchscreen, and do you still call them "smartphone"? with all the complaining about iPhone don't have a physical keyboard, how in the hell you can write business email with a E75 keypad? Sure, I have seen poeple type fast with a keypad, but come one tell me with a straight face that you will type anything more then a sms with that.
have you tried any of the thousand and thousands of j2me app for S60? if can you tell me with a straight face that it has a better user experience then a bb or iphone.
or have you seen people with S60 handset use a lot of data? do they even have a data plan? so will you call a phone that has no data plan a "smartphone"?
so can someone ask nokia to separate their real smartphone such E71, N97, e.t.c from all the other voice phone with S60? I bet their "smartphone" worldwide market share will be a lot smaller. A lot.
yes, I have use S60, BB, iphone and going to get an android soon. and I am a end user, not a developer and not does not work for a handset manufacturer or a carrier.
the only thing I would want from a S60 handset is the front facing camera with video call, so what if it's low quality, BB and iphone don't have it.
Unless Nokia get their act together with which platform to focus, RIM, Apple, Google will be the last man standing.
Oh, sorry WinMo, you are not even on the radar anymore. Bye.
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|Who thought that iPhone was anything higher than 3rd place? You? No one else, from anything I've read, thinks it.
Verizon's 2-for-1 sale has been pushing Blackberry devices out quite quickly. Besides Verizon, they have 3 other major outlets in the U.S.A. compared to 1 for iPhone and AT&T is weak in the 3G network department, if you haven't noticed.
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|While you examine one set of numbers closely, you might want to examine all the numbers in addition to the intl versus US market plus the bigger picture is marketshare does not equal margins does not equal profits. Does Apple care if nokia is king of the $49 smartphone - if you understood the industry, you would understand that Apple does not chase market share - only until margins drop substantially ... like the netbook market has 2% margins, why would apple want to enter that market? selling something just to sell something is a game that fits some companies that need volume ... like Blackberry has buy 1 get 1 phone because that helps them to sell RIm servers ... basically they hope to push the phone into the hands of users so the backend It has to buy more servers. Their "market share " goals are entirely different but here's where Changewave comes in - USAGE is an important factor - it seems to indicate that more Blackberries does not mean a spike in usage - as blackberry users tend to be corporate email users - get an email, read it - type a response. Click phone to sleep. Apple makes $600-$700 PER PHONE (including itunes & subsidies). NO ONE else is close (why Rim announced a stockbuyback because next Q sales are slowing - after all, when you give away a free phone, there is a limit) and Android, 50 telcos and manufacturers will muddy the marketing message so the phones are only worth $39 ... in the confusion of each android sniping the other, Apple wins, Rim places in the most important category of all - PROFITS & MARGINS.
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|@jbelkin Nokia doesn't sell anything close to a $49 smartphone, and it's the bloggers and reporters writing about iPhone having 30 percent share that are obsessed with market share. I agree that Apple is chasing profits, not market share.
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|@jbelkin You tell someone they don't understand the industry and then go on to say that RIM gives away free phones? You do realize the carrier sets the price for the phones, right? There is this thing called "subsidy". You know, you get a phone cheap or free, and in return sign a 2-year contract. That's OK though. Ride Apple's jock a little harder. You'll be fine.
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|Please go back to reading all of the articles that you linked to for the ChangeWave survey: they all mention that it is for the US! Note, IDC data you are referring to is for worldwide. Do you understand the difference between worldwide and US? That is why Nokia is not mentioned in the ChangeWave survey; in the US they are in the other category because their market share in US is low. Similarly, that is why Palm is mentioned in the ChangeWave survey but not in IDC data; worldwide their market share is to low to be broken out.
You have created conflict between the ChangeWave survey and the IDC data where there is none. Comparing the two is like comparing apples to oranges (or iPhones to Blackberrys!).
Also, note that it is only now that Apple is starting to go with multiple carriers internationally or to enter into some of the non-US markets. Please come back in one or two years and let's see where things stand.
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|@baederboy Good observation, and one I hoped someone would make. I complained about ChangeWave's lack of stated methodology for a good reasons. One: Nowhere does the ChangeWave report identify region. Two of the stories say U.S., but not the others.
As for iPhone U.S. share being 30 percent; it's not. Overall US share--not just smartphones--Apple is around 6 percent, with RIM about double that. I'll update smartphone data when Gartner releases numbers.
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|@joe
"As for iPhone U.S. share being 30 percent; it's not. "
I think you are being a bit disingenuous here Joe. The ChangeWave data may not have been clear about the region covered... but it is clearly referring to the 'smart phone' market. Either there is such a market or there is not. You seem quite happy to quote IDC's smart phone share figures, but then switch to ALL cell phone figures when it suits you. Make up your mind!
"Overall US share--not just smartphones--Apple is around 6 percent, with RIM about double that"
Are you sure about that? One in eight US cell phones sold are .... Blackberrys? That is either wrong... or Rim must be selling pretty poorly anywhere outside the US.
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|I live and travel in Asia. Although iPhones are starting to appear more and more in every country, I can't remember the last time (if ever) I saw a Blackberry that "was not" in the hands of an American or Canadian visitor. Very few people buy Blackberrys in Asia, but many people go to great lengths to get their hands on an unlocked iPhone, whether available in their country or not. No idea about surveys and market share but, just from traveling around and looking around, my hunch is that, in the not too distant future, unless something far superior comes out, iPhone will be the worldwide smartphone market leader (and with the biggest margins and net profits....).
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|@Piot You misread the post. I present separate charts for smartphone and overall handset shipments. The data comparing iPhone and BlackBerry is absolutely identified as smartphones.
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|@Joe. I Did not misread your post. And yes, you present two separate charts. All mobile phones... and just the smart phones. The ChangeWave data was smart phone market share in the US.
"As for iPhone U.S. share being 30 percent; it's not."
You are attempting to deny the validity of one set of figures... by using a different set. That is just as misleading as all of the tech press stories that you are criticising.
Simple question Joe. What share of the US smart phone market does Apple hold?
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|those blackberry screens are less than half the size of the iphones.. I would go nuts!
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