Favorite Files

No favorite files added yet

Recent Posts

1. Comment - For 1.3 million HD DVD customers, what's next?

   (Feb 19, 2008 - 11:50 PM)

   1. Catalog Issues are certainly a concern. Probably many will see how Apple will sink or swim on their Apple TV service as well as Netflix.
   
   2. Download Caps and Download Speeds not being fast enough are a catch 22. The cable companies will re-evaluate that when they're ready to roll out: http://tinyurl.com/2c326q More than likely people would pre-pay to have downloads done overnight and unlocked on "opening day".
   
   3. Maybe less sound, but HD DivX does do 1920x1080.
   
   4. Permanent renter status is definitely a minus for VOD, but for those who make a media server and figure out how to rip Blu-Rays to HD DivX, getting a new release is a simple matter of borrowing your friend's copy or the occasional rental. Hacking the Blu-Ray DRM will be an ongoing headache for those who refuse to buy a Blu-Ray movie, but for those determined to want something for free it may be worth it. Once a person has a copy they are free to back it up to blank media. Not a big deal.
   
   5. Not so sure if VOD will suffer as much as the Divx Disc, but if movie studios opt to do simultaneous release for those who'd rather watch at home, you could see a huge uptick in popularity for this.
   
   6. Network congestion stopping your movie in the middle is an issue if you're streaming but odds are the movies will be downloaded in its entirety or well enough where it's a non-issue.
   
   7. You actually know how technology will be 20 years from now?!?!?!?!?!?! I think you're making a lot of assumptions here both in A/V quality as well as network loads and VOD consumer penetration.
   
   8. Next resolution looks to be 1440p. I've seen it somewhere on a video on the HDMI.org site.
   
   9. Although the size of good transfers would increase as resolutions increase, you're also assuming that people would want to download such higher resolutions when their hardware may not need such a thing. Two successive formats after Blu-Ray? Hard to say. MP3s came out about 1997 and I want to say in 2003 they began taking off. Now music downloads are a growing major industry. That happened a lot quicker than 20 years and we've come leaps and bounds from 56k modems. Video files could potentially repeat that trend thanks to the growing popularity of things like the iPod Touch and Apple TV along with the gaming consoles.
   
   Generally speaking you're making a lot of assumptions from a position of somehow being in the know of what our future holds. I'm not so certain as you are.
   
   What I do know is pirates and their like will continue their lifestyle till the very Orwellian end. The path of least resistance is simply ripping movies and playing them on a media server connected to their HDTVs.
   
   IMHO I think there will be a place for VOD mostly for people who have large families or those who don't want the hassles of going to the theaters (expensive foods and annoying people). It probably won't be light speed at ultra high resolutions, but it will start off as a niche feature that will grow in popularity and when it grows content providers will meet the demand.

2. Comment - For 1.3 million HD DVD customers, what's next?

   (Feb 19, 2008 - 5:38 PM)

   I've heard of an Atari ST, an Atari Mega, and a Commodore 64. But what the heck is an Atari 64? :)
   
   Or do you mean the Atari Jaguar?

3. Comment - For 1.3 million HD DVD customers, what's next?

   (Feb 19, 2008 - 5:31 PM)

   Geez louise. You'd think the format war is still waging on given all the negativity here.
   
   Let's put things into perspective. If you took everyone who bought either a Blu-Ray or HD-DVD player prior to 2008, that number would amount to less than half the population of Hawaii. At this point, the HD player population may be right at the halfway point or slightly above half the population of Hawaii.
   
   Translation: Who honestly really cares about either format? The format war was tiny to begin with. It should have been called the Format Battle. The next battle is between Blu-Ray and VOD.
   
   That being said, I don't think Nate's comments are far-fetched. The Chinese have a reputation for piracy and making DVD players which ignored region coding. The Chinese are opportunists. The Chinese products we see here are cheap because that's all we want from China. People buying that don't care if they're not getting a Sony or Toshiba. I remember when Apex debuted in this country and their players were selling out at Circuit City's across the country when they first came out. Why? The Apex players could be made to ignore region coding. And I want to say those players were about $150.
   
   Although the encoding for CH-DVD is different than HD-DVD's, I see no reason why a blackmarket player could not support both encoded formats. The hardware should be identical. Compatibility should not be an issue. Getting such players into the U.S. market may prove to be difficult, but where there's a will, there's a way.
   
   And it really boils down to that. How determined is someone to not buy Blu-Ray in favor of blackmarket HD-DVD? I don't think that one will find very many that are passionate about supporting HD-DVD per se as time goes by. What I do think MIGHT happen is given Blu-Ray's additional DRM and yet to be deployed image constraint, the average joe consumer may end up being frustrated should the iron fist of DRM come crashing down. This will motivate the average joe more than anything IMHO.
   
   Given that the CH-DVD format seems to have the backing of the Chinese government, that format is all but assured of succes in China. So the potential of what Nate is saying is certainly there.
   
   So what's a tech saavy rebel to do? More than likely, people will get cozy to the idea of media servers (for those of us who don't own a console). People will rent Blu-Ray's and rip them to a HD DivX or HD Xvid format and put it on their media servers without thinking twice. This is the most likely thing to happen than a blackmarket Chinese HD-DVD player. It's less of a hassle.
   
   Building a media server is not only cheap, it's relatively easy. The average joe could find a neighborhood kid to help him out.
   
   On a side note, Asus is launching their own HDTV line later this year that has a Linux OS for web browsing and e-mail flashed into the TV's firmware. If Asus were smart, they'd also let this TV play any USB Disk or HDD loaded with DivX or Xvid movies to essentially give the masses what they want. DRM and Hassle free HD content which is convenient.
   
   Bottom line, Blu-Ray won. The first format battle is over. Those who invested in HD-DVD are certainly entitled to keep what they have and enjoy what they have until their player dies a horrible death. There's some sliver of hope that they could replace their current player when it dies and potentially get a blackmarket Chinese HD-DVD player.
   
   Blu-Ray's next battle is to postpone the VOD / DivX / Xvid invasion. How well they succeed rests entirely on how quickly they can accelerate the average joe's adoption of Blu-Ray.

4. Comment - Blu-ray Looks to Curry Favor with Insiders

   (Oct 30, 2007 - 4:37 PM)

   Sony certainly proved that with their 60GB PS3s, but I think the price drops are inevitable as a result of manufacturing improvements which have also been spurred on by the competition.
   
   Sure both sides are subsidizing their players, but I wouldn't call either side's price drops as fire sales unless they let their supplies run out as you say.

5. Comment - Blu-ray Looks to Curry Favor with Insiders

   (Oct 30, 2007 - 4:12 PM)

   I went to Wal-Mart yesterday to see if the A2 was in stock only to find the A3 selling for $298 with copies of 300 and The Bourne Identity bundled with the A3. The A2 was not yet in stock at my local Wal-Mart.