Apple Mac sales are down, but maybe not everywhere
Although Apple no longer seems immune to the PC industry sales slump, analyst figures released this week don't actually show the entire sales picture.
On Tuesday, analyst firm NPD Group released an estimate that Apple computer sales in US retail stores, measured in units sold, fell six percent in January from the same month last year, and that Apple's market share dropped to 13.7 percent from 16.4 percent.
A new study by ChangeWave Alliance also indicates a sales slump for Apple in certain sectors, but NPD's estimate acted as a catalyst for an immediate drop in Apple's share price.
Wall Street took a dim view of the numbers reported by NPD right away, causing Apple shares to plunge 4.7% on Tuesday, closing at $94.16. By the end of the day on Thursday, shares had taken a further nosedive to $90.64.
Meanwhile, though, some financial analysts advised their clients to think harder. The NPD estimate is "a single month's data, and it provides no information on international sales, which account for 45 percent of worldwide sales in the March quarter," wrote Charlie Wolf, an analyst at Needham & Co., in a note to his clients.
Moreover, the NPD estimate pertains only to consumer sales, and in retail stores, for that matter.
ChangeWave's new survey also shows that, during the week of February 2 - 9, 2009, among all consumers who bought a laptop PC over the past 90 days, only 20% purchased a Mac. This represented a drop of two percentage points over ChangeWave's January estimate.
Among consumers buying a desktop PC over the past 90 days, merely 15% bought a Mac, for another two-point decline. By comparison, Dell's performance was also about flat, while Hewlett-Packard did better.
"Looking at the past 90 days, sales of HP laptops (27 percent, up four points) and desktops (27 percent, up five points) have jumped," according to the report. "Purchases of Dell PCs over the past 90 days have dipped slightly -- with desktops (33 percent) dropping two points and laptops (21 percent) dipping one point."
Apple, though, outbested the other vendors in terms of customer satisfaction. "Among respondents who bought an Apple Mac over the past 90 days, 81 percent say they are Very Satisfied. This compares to a 55 percent Very Satisfied rating for Dell and 52 percent for HP."
ChangeWave also emphasizes in its report that the survey focuses exclusively on consumer sales, with a different survey on corporate buying slated for later in the month.
Further, ChangeWave's survey predicts that while sales of Apple desktops will drop another two percentage points over the next 90 days, sales of Apple laptops will edge up by three points. Not to heave all the blame onto Apple, though, since the study as a whole points to continued sales weakness across all CE vendors.
"We note that overall Consumer Electronics spending is also at the lowest levels since ChangeWave first began measuring consumer purchasing in 2002," according to the report. "Only 12 percent of respondents say they'll spend more on electronics over the next 90 days, compared to 43 percent who say they'll spend less, a clear sign of further deterioration in this space."
Yet sales of netbooks are faring well. So maybe Apple really ought to release a netbook some time soon?
"Our previous survey showed low-cost, highly portable laptops with smaller screens -- popularly known as netbooks -- are one of the few beneficiaries of this tough spending environment. The latest results reinforce this finding," according to the ChangeWave researchers. "Among respondents who have bought a laptop in the past 90 days, 17 percent say it was a netbook -- better than one in every six laptops purchased during this time period."