Connecting the Black Friday dots: What to expect from CE retail

In anticipation of the coming annual Black Friday spending surge, analysts have come out of the woodwork to voice their predictions. This afternoon, we took some time to parse some of them.

ComScore has predicted that this holiday season will have the exact same average online holiday spending as last year: $29.2 billion dollars. Though it is the same amount for this period as last year, it marks a decrease when compared to the whole year. Last year, consumer spending from January to October was $93.6 billion, and this year it has been $102.1 billion, a 9% increase overall.

Trends in the early shopping season (November 1-23) have shown a 4% overall decrease. Last year, $8.51 billion was spent, and this year $8.19 billion has been spent.

In a poll of 500 consumers, comScore found that 37% of all shoppers will be spending an increased amount of time searching out deals online, and 39% plan to buy online to take advantage of free shipping or no-tax transactions.

Consulting Firm Oliver Wyman directed a similar survey of 500 adults, finding that 50% of respondents are planning to decrease their "device spending," while only 21% of those surveyed said they planned to increase their spending in the area of Communications and Entertainment Media.

Retail Decisions has issued its prediction that the peak shopping minute on "Black Friday" will be precisely 10:25 am, constituting the busiest moment of online shopping all year. Presumably that same time holds true cross-continent, because the firm neglected to answer that famous question from "Inherit the Wind:" "Is that Eastern Standard Time? Or Rocky Mountain Time?"

The second busiest time on the clock, this firm predicts, will be at 9:49 am on "Cyber Monday," December 1. That group also anticipates the overall amount of money spent per transaction will decrease by 9%.

But what will be causing the most traffic congestion this year? Lycos today published its ninth annual most popular toys and video games list for the holiday season based upon searches, and found that the iPod is the most-searched "toy," with Wii, Xbox 360, and PlayStation 3 coming in at 10, 12, and 13 respectively (behind a host of Anime characters, Webkinz, and Poker and Blackjack).

According to Lycos, the most-searched video games this holiday season so far have been RuneScape, Halo 3, Final Fantasy XIII, Diablo III, Grand Theft Auto IV, World of Warcraft, Resident Evil 5, Guitar Hero: World Tour, Call of Duty: World at War, and Street Fighter IV. These searches, however, may not be related to the holiday season as Resident Evil 5, the seventh most searched title, will not even be released until March 2009.

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