Analysts: Holiday shopping still not tanking

Web metrics company comScore has been tracking activity and spending on e-commercial sites this holiday season, and this year is on par with last year, indicating that the dreaded "r-word" is not having too negative an impact.

Before "Cyber Monday," comScore predicted the growth in online commerce for the holiday season would remain mostly flat, or with negligible growth. This prediction has thus far been fulfilled as holiday spending hit a slow patch last week.

However, the doldrums that characterized December 8-12 marked only a one percent decline against last year overall. What would have otherwise represented a much larger decline was offset by the single day spike that took place on December 9. Somehow, commerce on December 9 not only exceeded Cyber Monday sales, but surpassed the heaviest shopping day on record (which was December 10, 2007).

Should "Cyber Monday" be moved to the position of the second week in December? After all, online shopping generally takes less time to complete than in shopping done in brick-and-mortar locations.

A study from Taiwan's Sue-Te University released earlier this year explained that this disparity in speed is included in the mechanism of physical shopping. The appeal of traditional shopping includes entertainment, social interaction, movement, and trip-chaining; online shopping is mostly task oriented. However, because of the apprehension surrounding timely and safe product delivery, many consumers opt to simply go to a store and purchase their gifts.

ComScore says that last-minute deals will continue online, and that some sites guarantee a Christmas Eve delivery as late as one week before Christmas. That date, December 18, looks to be the point at which online spending will drop off until after Christmas Day. At that point last year, gift card redemption on sites such as iTunes caused a post-holiday explosion in online commerce.