Blu-ray sales skyrocket, provided you lower the sky

By Tim Conneally | Published May 7, 2009, 2:26 PM

Market data from the NPD Group released this week shows that in the first quarter of 2009, more than 400,000 standalone Blu-ray players were sold, constituting a year-over-year increase of 72%. Dollar sales likewise increased by 14% and hit $107.2 million.

Last month, Futuresource Consulting predicted that 2009 will be the year that Blu-ray breaks, estimating shipments of more than 12 million standalone Blu-ray players for the total year. Futuresource's Jack Wetherill said his group anticipated 1.2 million units would ship in Q1 2009, some three times more than NPD says were sold to consumers.

If sales maintain their first quarter pace, 2009 will end with only 1.6 million players sold, meaning Futuresource projected an oversupply of 10.4 million units. Of course, the group expects the fourth quarter holiday shopping blitz will greatly impact Blu-ray sales as it has in previous years. Last year, for example, holiday Blu-ray buying represented more than half of the year's total sales in a single quarter.

In NPD's survey, however, more than 58% of the nearly 7,000 consumers surveyed in late February and early March admitted they were "not very familiar" with Blu-ray, and its share of total movie sales is still tiny. Though sales of individual Blu-ray titles has climbed with each successive release, the format is being dramatically outsold by DVD. For example, Blu-ray sales for Disney's Wall-E, one of the format's most successful titles -- and one of which the Blu-ray Disc Association is quite proud -- represented only one-tenth of the title's net disc sales in March.

NPD Entertainment Industry analyst Russ Crupnick said, "The leading driver of Blu-ray purchase intent is recommendations from friends, family or co-workers. Blu-ray's superiority used to be difficult for many consumers to grasp, but when friends rave about it, or demonstrate Blu-ray in their homes, they are selling the benefits in a way that is far more effective than simply viewing an advertisement or seeing it demonstrated at a retail store."

Very few studies have examined the role of social influence on consumer tech adoption, but peer evangelism has long been considered one of the strongest determinants in consumer attitude. A critical examination from Kulviwat, Bruner, and Al-Shuridah published in the Journal of Business Research last September (v. 62 #7) suggested, "There are two very different ways that companies can attempt to affect individuals' attitudes about adopting a high tech innovation: One way is to focus on the product's attribute-based benefits while the other way...is to convince potential adopters that a relevant group has endorsed the product. "

Thus far, these two areas have been weak for Blu-ray. The format's attribute-based benefits (i.e., picture and sound quality, bonus material quality) have repeatedly been called into question, and even though the stable of relevant supporters is substantial (Dell, Samsung, LG, Apple, Sony to name only a few) there is a colossal presence absent from the Blu-ray party: Microsoft.

Comments

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"does it really get under your skin that much that Blu-ray is doing just fine and sales continue to grow month after month??"

Well, I'll go out on a limb and admit is gets under MY skin and here's why: I'm not convinced Blu-Ray will continue to be backwards compatible and I'm sick to death of being suckered into re-buying my entertainment collection over and over again.

I started to collect movies in 1981 on VHS. Then they told me the magnetic signal would slowly erode and if I wanted to enjoy my favorite movies in my old age, I better buy laser disc. So I re-bought my collection. Then it became obvious laser disc was blip in the system and I had to re-buy my collection AGAIN on DVD.

Copy protection, proprietary formats, format extinction…. It’s all aimed at getting people to re-buy the collections they built to last a lifetime. Nobody wants to sustain healthy niche markets these days; they want to create cultural juggernauts and that means bullying perfectly good formats off the shelves.

I’m pleased that vinyl is hanging in there. Maybe there’s hope for the future for those who don’t always want to follow the herd.

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I would love to buy a Blu-ray player. Movies look great in 1080P, just not great enough to pay $200 plus for the player and $9 more for the Blu-ray version of a movie in today's economy. Blu-ray might be doing well but if the price was more in line with DVD it could be doing much, much better.

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i cant believe i missed the link on my first read of the article...but i love the "called into question" link BetaNews puts in this article...which is a link to an article that in NO WAY calls BD quality into question AT ALL....it just states that if you trade in your HD-DVD version of a movie for a BD version you may or may not see better PQ lol....thats hilarious...because everybody knows the two formats offered near identical performance lol...so sad BetaNews...so sad...keep the hate coming lol

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GadgetPig

If you're enjoying Blu-ray then rock on my friend.

I enjoy some of the releases myself.

My criticism is for those who preach that Blu-ray is set to take over from DVD in the mass-market.
It is not.
It cannot.
It never will.

Dark_Helmet

Is that the latest tactic?
Claim anyone who says anything less than compliamentary about BD is full of "hatred"!?
LMAO
Pathetic.

Blu-ray is not doing well. Wake up.

Blu-ray is growing so slowly that it is inevitably only capable of being a niche product before the next major advance comes along.
At current growth rates it will be a small niche even in 5yrs time.

You (laughably) dismiss this as "hatred" I call it a sober objective assessment of the facts.

You prefer to lead people up the garden path and con them into investing in a transitory niche product.
I prefer people know what they are getting into.

The BDA think people do (and couldn't give a damn if they get left high and dry) but it's clear that the truth of what is going on is still subject to the BS, lies and disinformation of the BDA and their viral support.

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i have NEVER said Blu-ray is set to take over from DVD as a mass market product as of right now...NEVER ONCE said that....but it is flat out simply impossible to say it never will....

no...i have no problem with anyone saying something less than complimentary about BD...its when people have unintelligent arguments that are epic failures that i have a problem with it lol...

Blu-ray is doing FINE hocus as much as it bothers you....sales are way up...and continue to rise...thats the whole point...at the 3 year point in DVD's lifecycle it was an overpriced niche product too....time will tell...but if we look at all the BetaNews "experts" and their history of predicting what will happen next in the A/V world (HD-DVD wins format war, Warner goes HD-DVD exclusive @ CES 08 etc) then ill take my chances with BD :)

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As an early HD-DVD supporter, I am glad the format wars are over. It sure makes picking HD movies much easier. :)

Blu-Ray continues to slowly get better, movies can be found at nice bargains (Some Brick Mortar store Specials, Walmart, eBay, Craigslist, or used from $5.00-$20.00 on Amazon). You don't necessarily need BD if your set is smaller than 37" and/or you watch sitting back 6ft or more, or just happy with DVD. But if you want the best possible picture quality, there is no better HD media option right now. For movies buffs and those looking to get the best possible picture/sound, Blu Ray is a fantastic deal. I switched between my XD-E500 "SD" and BDP-S350 " BD" version of "Gangs of New York" and "The Patriot", and BD was much more clear, more detail, and defined on my 47" 1080P Westy. Nobody is putting a gun to anyone's head saying "buy BD or die", just like nobody is doing the same with "Windows 7 or Vista". But ultimately there are customers willing to pay for better technology and/or quality so they can get a better experience.

Eventually over time, BD will mature enough to be mass-produced at DVD levels and essentially cost shouldn't be a factor anymore. And then what argument is left? Never underestimate progress, things that are a luxury today will be eventually be standard a few years from now.

But don't wait forever, there's some great deals to be found and movies to enjoy!

When will BD take off and become mainstream? I would say when you start seeing BD titles in Wallymart dump bins for 10bucks or less. But again, you can easily find BD titles NOW for 10.00-19.99 new. And it was not too long ago that new DVD titles were selling at close to BD prices. ($19-$24 vs $24-$29)

Cheers!

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here goes BetaNews again, doing all they can to downplay anything positive about Blu-ray...they are STILL crying themselves to sleep at night because HD-DVD failed lol...

KSzostek: why are you paying $25-$30 for movies when you can get them cheaper online??...also...do you not remember when DVD first came out?...do you think there were $11 DVD's 3 years into its lifecycle?? the answer is no....btw...Sony doesn't price all the discs...thats up to the individual studios....

Danno: all i hear from you is cry cry cry...does it really get under your skin that much that Blu-ray is doing just fine and sales continue to grow month after month?? because it sure seems like it with all your sour grapes posts over the format...it makes me laugh out loud...you continue to watch your sub-par quality, low bit rate, macro blocking, compressed on-demand content...and SD DVD's while i enjoy my blu-rays...im not losing sleep over the fact that you are not enjoying movies the way they were intended to be enjoyed...

Hocus...you're not even worth a reply at this point...your pure hatred is continuing to blind you to the point that just as with your friend fox you can't stand to stomach the idea that blu-ray continues to defy your "expert" claims that it will fail...

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Dark: If all I do is cry all you do is stroke Sony.
Bloray does bother me why? The price! the lies!
Do I loose sleep over this? NO but I can't help but think every time I see something about Bloray and Sony and the BDA especially when it concerns numbers or sales and the scuttle bug between friends and the impartial media (the ones not in Sonys pocket (which Betanews doesn't seem to be)isn't ever about wow that was a mind blowing blodisk movie. Its easier to believe that its only the people invested in this tech and their fanbois (YOU) who have nothing but good things to say about it. Like I have said I have a POS3 it collects dusts.. why because the movies I own for it are few (lack of a decent library) and as for the games.. sorry Xbox owns that front for exceptional titles and ease of gameplay.

Finally Dark if this helps you and your fellow Sony Fanbois to sleep easier because of the 1 victory (the first for a long while) behing the successor of HD disk based tech because of all those other bitter failures.. Kudos to you.. sleep comfy in that basement.

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"Dark: If all I do is cry all you do is stroke Sony."

see here is what you and your buddies that hang out around here still can't seem to understand...i don't CARE about Sony....yes i own a PS3 but thats the only piece of Sony electronics i even own...i don't stroke Sony in anyway...i think their home theater equipment is mediocre at best...and their TV's are good, but overpriced...no brand loyalty for me...Blu-ray is just hands down the highest quality media on the market today...period...

"Bloray does bother me why? The price! the lies!"

the price??...come on...this is such an invalid argument its not even funny...what did DVD players and movies cost in 2000???...ill bet you they were right in line with the cost of Blu-ray right now 3 years after release....

lies??...where is the proof of someone from SONY actually flat out lying about numbers that deal with blu-ray??...lets see it....

"Do I loose sleep over this? NO but I can't help but think every time I see something about Bloray and Sony and the BDA especially when it concerns numbers or sales and the scuttle bug between friends and the impartial media"

again, proof?...you and your alter egos Hocus and Fox all seem to confuse the idea of someone reporting something other than what you believe to be true as automatically a lie...no matter how many sources one could post it is a lie to you if it in anyway paints Sony of blu-ray positively...comical..

"which Betanews doesn't seem to be" and you consider the "news" posted here at BetaNews to be impartial??? WOW this explains a lot about you lol....this place is about as far from impartial as you can get...and the title of this article says enough about that lol...i mean all the HATE and FUD spread by this site during the format war was epic!...you could literally see some the "editors" at this site sitting at their computers crying while they continued to write "articles" predicting the victory for HD-DVD and how the chinese manufacturers and lower price point and this and that were going to dominate BD and HD-DVD was the savior of the HD world...and then all of a sudden Toshiba pulls the plug and this place starts going nutty over "digital delivery" and "on-demand"....sad...

"have nothing but good things to say about it."

not true...i have complaints about Sony, the PS3, and Blu-ray....it may SEEM like i say nothing but good things to say because your opinions are so off base that i need to set you straight all the time...

"Like I have said I have a POS3 it collects dusts.."

and thasts a shame because there are a lot of good games out there exclusive to the PS3 that your hatred for Sony causes you to not play...oh well...your loss really...

"why because the movies I own for it are few (lack of a decent library)" there are thousands upon thousands of BD titles out there...if you can't find one to watch thats pathetic lol...i get the idea of not wanting to buy all your old flicks on BD again...but all of the new releases are released on BD...so its totally logical to purchase new films on BD...especially considering that looking around a little can most often net you new releases @ around $19.99...

"and as for the games.. sorry Xbox owns that front for exceptional titles and ease of gameplay."

if this was 2007 i would say you were right...but i dont think the 360 OWNS the exceptional titles front...not with exclusives like Killzone 2, Resistance 1 and 2, Uncharted, Gran Turismo, Warhawk, inFamous, MLB The Show, Little Big Planet and others out there for the PS3....

sure the 360 still has the bigger library...but the "no games" library argument has certainly run its course....

and ease of gameplay?...what!?...how are either different? lol...i own both and as far as ease of gameplay the only thing i can see making a difference is controller design...which is totally subjective...

and my Halo 3 edition 360 collects dust just like your PS3 does....do you see me saying the 360 sucks?? nope...there are just more games i play on my PS3...see thats the difference between someone who has the ability to be open minded...unlike yourself...

"Finally Dark if this helps you and your fellow Sony Fanbois to sleep easier because of the 1 victory (the first for a long while) behing the successor of HD disk based tech because of all those other bitter failures.. Kudos to you.. sleep comfy in that basement."

no, but what does help me sleep better is knowing that I'm not you...

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The very bottom line is simple I own a PS3 I have the movie that came with it Spiderman, until the price comes down I will not pay $25-$30 for a movie I can get for $15.00 and for the small difference in video quality.

Sony will never get it off the ground until they wise up and lower the disc price, and you know Sony is to stupid to realize it.

It's pretty basic make a little from alot, not alot from alittle.

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Same old SONY and BDA hype. Tell me where are these actual numbers instead of the crap you continue to present to the media. I find it surprising that despite limber sales of BD in comparison to DVD that you still present record sales of a technology that continues to deflate expectations. Then I remember your surprised at any sales you have of anything because your SONY. The intelligent amoung us will continue to do what we have for the past 2 years. View video through ON Demand HD and purchase DVD's to play in our upconverting players. You continue on this road that leads to no where and when 3D tech comes up and swallows more of the consumer base you can twiddle your thumbs and try and spark sales with less than average numbers.

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Bottom line:

Sony lies (pundits will prefer to call it "hype" but I call a spade a spade)..

It has for decades (started in the 80s and got worse as time went by)

DVD ain't going away any time soon.

I'll wait for something better from a more reputable company. My guess is that it'll be more cost effective too - it usually is after Sony bombs.

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Yeah, and in the DVD format's third year it was also "being dramatically outsold" by VHS. The writer seems to have purposely neglected reports on other titles which have the Blu-ray copies accounting for 15-20+% of sales. Blu-ray's YTD market share for all video titles (including those titles that come out on DVD but not on BD), is at 12%.

And it took the DVD close to seven years before it finally passed VHS. The ramp up for Blu-ray is not much different than with other media formats. The difference this time seems to be how much of the tech press is bent on twisting the market data on Blu-ray in order to promote their fanboy devotion to video downloading.

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Woochifer May 7, 2009 -
"Blu-ray's YTD market share for all video titles (including those titles that come out on DVD but not on BD), is at 12%."


Bullsh*t it is.

It's the same old same old.

Laughably, Sony lie and count PS3 game disks in the stats.

The BDA refuse to allow stats which give a true and accurate picture until it's taken out of their hands at the end of the year and the true situation emerges.

They claimed all that 8%, 10%, 12% and even 16% garbage last year.

The truth was 4.45%.
h**p://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6627437.html?nid=3511

Similarly the attempt to compare Blu-ray growth (whatever it actually is) with a time when the market was not used to disk-based video is ludicrous.

Once again those idiotically inflated projections for Blu-ray get shot totally to pieces.

The claim that Blu-ray is even remotely close to being a 'mass-market' product is pure comedy and lies from the usual BD bullsh*tters.

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Hocus is correct. Blu-ray is a small fraction of total sell through movie sales compare to DVD... even in Q1 2009. But, some titles sell a nice percentage of BR titles compared to DVD.

Be careful of the pro-Blu-ray spin and what's missing from data and surveys. This same NPD article has the number of people very or extremely likely to buy a Blu-ray player at a mere 6%... the same value NPD has reported for nearly a year. If it's doing so well, why aren't more people interested?

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"Laughably, Sony lie and count PS3 game disks in the stats."
And where did you get this information?

"The truth was 4.45%.
h**p://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6627437.html?nid=3511"
Can you explain how you got that number from this site?

"Similarly the attempt to compare Blu-ray growth (whatever it actually is) with a time when the market was not used to disk-based video is ludicrous."
Why?

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Cairobeta
"And where did you get this information?"


It has been heavily rumoured in a/v sites..... since forever and never once catagorically denied by the BDA, ever.

In fact the BDA are their own worst enemy.
With HD DVD now gone why do they continue to keep secret the true and independantly verifiable actual total sales data?

They have no direct competitor any more.

The only credible answer is that by doing so they get to spin & BS the numbers and try to kid people that Blu-ray will slide in as the next DVD sometime soon.

It won't.

Blu-ray is a niche product for a/v enthusiasts and the PS3 gang
(and even they aren't that interested if the movie isn't completely aimed at them, as the on-going low sales numbers prove).

You can't even realise all of it's 'benefits' without shelling out for expensive new equipment (a very large HD TV & an expensive HD receiver and 5.1/7.1 high-end speaker set-up) that the mass-market will never invest in.

"Can you explain how you got that number from this site?"

It's very simple maths and the numbers are all in the text I linked to.

Total DVD sales were 1.4 billion units and total Blu-ray sales were 63.2 million.

"Why?"

Because it is ridiculous to pretend that the market is the same.
We have moved on.
We are very familiar with and used to disk based video, a situation completely different to that of when DVD appeared in the mainstream.

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Hey Hocus,

I’ll start with the last statement you made:

“Because it is ridiculous to pretend that the market is the same. We have moved on. We are very familiar with and used to disk based video, a situation completely different to that of when DVD appeared in the mainstream.”

The jump from SD to HD is actually quite stunning. Maybe not revolutionary, but neither was the jump from VHS to DVD. Early DVDs had no better PQ than good quality VHS recordings. In fact, I could record to VHS, but not DVD. So, the only benefits to DVD over VHS were life of the product and no rewind. Remember the “but my VHS is analog and analog has better fidelity than digital because it is not quantized” bit? So, the jump from digital SD to digital HD is, in fact, a bigger jump than from VHS to DVD. Early adopters of DVD faced the EXACT same charges that you are levying against the HD crowd, especially this one:

“You can't even realise all of it's 'benefits' without shelling out for expensive new equipment (a very large HD TV & an expensive HD receiver and 5.1/7.1 high-end speaker set-up) that the mass-market will never invest in."

First, the “mass market” is never the target audience for emerging technologies. Early computers were expensive (why would I pay $3000 for a glorified typewriter?) Early CD players were expensive (why would I shell out for expensive new equipment when my large analog disc gives me a richer sound than that puny expensive thing?) Early DVD players were expensive ($500 for a new movie player that I need a new TV to realize the potential?) Early CDs and DVDs were expensive. Heck, CDs and DVDs now are still $15 even though they cost WAY less than tapes (VHS or audio) to produce. So, your “mass market will never invest in” comment is patently wrong. The mass market eventually invested in CD players and DVDs just like it will invest in HD content. The setup I have now, I got 4 years ago, expecting that one day I’d be going HD. This is what I paid 4 years ago: 5.1 surround system - $300, 55” HDTV - $1700. Do you know what kind of TV I can get now for $1700? A great deal more than I have now I guarantee you.

Second, you can realize the benefits without shelling out tons of money. You can get a good, entry level BluRay HD system with 7.1 surround and 1080p for under $1200 ($1000 if you look). Remember, that was as much as the first CD player. Just think how the people who made the same arguments you are making feel today. Their VCR clock is probably still blinking.

So, keeping your last statement in mind, what if BluRay would have been flash based instead of disc based? What if they could have cheaply made flash based media to hold HD content? Then it would be a very similar situation to the VHS to DVD thing, in fact, it would actually be harder to justify not switching because everything about HD is better than SD. Everything.

You may be bitter because HD-DVD lost (I got over that a long time ago – I got the 360 HD-DVD add on and own 8 HD-DVDs. I’m actually going to buy a bunch more from Amazon because they are like $3 new.) You may be bitter that DVD is “old hat” and can’t admit that HD content is so much better than SD (I refuse to watch football in SD anymore - it just offends my senses) You may be bitter that other people make bad arguments to support BluRay. Or, you may just be reluctant to change. Whatever it is, just admit it – you won’t convince anyone who enjoys HD content to ever go back to SD. Ever!

We have moved on. You’d sleep better if you did too.

Jeff.

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First...you can NOT get a BD players + 7.1 surround + an HD TV for $1000, even if you looked...maybe you CAN, but that system will not be good enough to show you any quality improvements over DVD. You're much better off getting a $50 upconverting DVD player.

Second...DVD didn't really have competition, it came out, everybody sort of agreed on that standard (except for maybe a few) and it took its time in getting into the mass market.

BD doesn't have that luxury...it needs to get into the mass market NOW. Streaming video, downloadable video, on-demand video...all at good quality and constantly improving...all this stuff is gaining momentum FAST....BD doesn't stand a chance against the reach and convinience, and PRICE of streaming video. Netflix even just increased the monthly fee if you want to rent BD movies...you know why they did that? Because there are not enough people rentint BD movies to justify them holding that inventory, so they increased the price for the few who do want them to make up some of their cost. Hm...I thought you said BD was catching on??

BD is a niche market, it will always be that way. It doesn't have time to get into the mass market, it's too expensive and it's too hard to gather the equipment to see a significant difference between a DVD and a BD player...no, a complete $1000 or even $1200 system will not be enough to fully appreciate BD. Even if it was, nobody cares anymore. I get almost anything I want onlne, on my TV, whenever I want. No need to go out and buy a $15-$30 DVD/BD.

It's not BD or even DVD quality (although it's damn close to DVD quality already if not better), but it's good enough, and that's all that really matters. Now it's just a matter of time, much sooner then later, before the BD quality is too insignificant to the average viewer to invest in it rather then just continue to watch on-demand content.

No...BD will never be as big as DVD ever was...and I'm not bitter, I do have a PS3 and a quality sound system + TV to fully appreciate it. Yet, I still find myself watching ondemand content FAR more often then a BD or DVD...why do I get the feeiling I'm not the only one...?

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I think it's funny that Blu-ray seems to gain its own personality here. With one side cheering her favorite player on and with him losing the bet on the other.

What does Blu-ray say about this? Blu-ray just wants to be left alone without everyone arguing about him. Poor Blu-ray.

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http://www.bhphotovideo....ANNEL_BLU_RAY_HOME.html

7.1 + BluRay player + Speakers: $520

http://www.bestbuy.com/s...ct&id=1218035133352

Dynex 42" 1080p HDTV: $600

Total: $1120

That is an entry level BluRay setup that I could buy for someone to get them hooked on HD and will be better than upconverted DVD. My in-laws have a very similar TV, and I have seen HD content (OTA) on it blows away any upconverted DVD on the same TV (my in-laws have that setup).

I'd be pretty confident that this 1080p BluRay setup with 7.1 sound will have a noticeable improvement over their upconverted DVDs. GRanted, they don't have an Oppo $400 upconverting DVD, but who in their right mind would buy that?

Granted, this will not impress audiophile/videophile, but they don't care about cost anyway and spend $1500 for a power conditioner. They already have the best setups money can buy so they don't count in this exercise.

Where in my post did I imply that BR was catching on?

Personally, the only reason I buy DVDs is for my kids, and to get the occasional movie I really like (oh, and the $3 fire sale on HD-DVD at Amazon right now) And just wait. As soon as the ISPs find out that they can charge a fee for streaming movies online...

Besides, this whole argument is moot anyway. I honestly don't care is BD lives or dies. All I'm trying to show is that this "debate" seems to have too much emotion and not enough logical thinking. SD DVD is not as good as HD anything, unless you have a < 42" TV. Anything more, no way. Like I said, you will never convince me that football in SD on any TV is better than football in HD on my 55" TV. That said, you will never convince me that SD DVD (or even upconverted DVD) on my 55" TV is anywhere near the same quality as Planet Earth in HD on the same system. I have seen both, and HD wins hands down, every time.

I will also admit that if they can ever get streaming quality to equal HD, I'd use that in a heartbeat. But again, I don't see that happening any time soon, unless, of course, you live in New York or LA and forget that the rest of the country lags a bit in getting cool technology. Heck, I can't even get 7Mbps DSL. I need to rely on my 10Mbps cable modem, which is great, but during peak times, lags a bit too much to enjoy streaming HD content.

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TheoGeek
The jump from SD to HD is actually quite stunning.

Says you.

I agree that it can be but all too often it isn't. There is a hell of a lot of very very ordinary high definition content out there barely better than standard def.

Maybe not revolutionary, but neither was the jump from VHS to DVD.

Yes it was.
It was not just the image quality that was much superior (full resolution on your TV instead of the 240-ish lines VHS offered) but in terms of instant movement to movie chapters etc DVD was instantly recognizable as being way better than VHS.

The only issue was the lack of record-ability and many people kept their VHS along side their DVD for that very reason.

First, the “mass market” is never the target audience for emerging technologies.

At almost 3yrs and counting Blu-ray cannot hide behind the "emerging tech" tag for any longer.

Second, you can realize the benefits without shelling out tons of money. You can get a good, entry level BluRay HD system with 7.1 surround and 1080p for under $1200 ($1000 if you look).

You can get a very ordinary HD TV and an audio system that will not properly play lossless audio.

What you're expecting people to invest in is an indistinct PQ, a rip-off - but still expensive - audio kit (which fails to deliver one of the most significant parts of the deal) and movie prices far above DVD prices.
This is exactly why most will never bother with it.

So, keeping your last statement in mind, what if BluRay would have been flash based instead of disc based?

Flash is coming. 2tb and 300mbps (6 times the speed of BD).
We'll see how it does when it gets here.
I suspect it'll be much more convenient once prices fall enough.

everything about HD is better than SD. Everything.

No.
Everything about HD can be better, but for most it either will not be or will only barely be (and at great cost).

You may be bitter because HD-DVD lost

Wrong.
I preferred HD DVD as the option that would have seen HD movies on disk everywhere.
But that's water long under the bridge.
I have Blu-ray actually (and the 52" recent HD TV and the proper HD receiver & speaker set-up).

I just don't like seeing people led up the garden path and encouraged to buy something at the price-points mentioned when that will not see them genuinely benefit from BD.

For the mass-market, it's just a total con-job.

Most will never buy the 1080p/24 HD TV set necessary and neither will they pay for an audio set-up good enough to properly deliver lossless audio.

Hell, most houses I go to rely on the speakers built-in to the TV.
Even pals of mine that were once into audio.
They get married and have kids and suddenly their old adolescent enthusiasms are lost to life's more practical priorities.

Get real.

You may be.... You may be...... Or, you may

Why not just stick to what I've actually said instead of inventing your own little tales, huh?

We have moved on. You’d sleep better if you did too.

I moved on long ago (I did say I have bought blu-ray myself) - oh and and I sleep just fine; thank you for your concern.

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Whats going on with these "in the 3rd year of DVD's life it was being slaughtered by VHS" etc... Cant you see at that time the technology was just not there to supercede DVD so it was inevitable that it would become more popular because it had more time. BD just hasnt got that luxury at all there's at least 5 mediums I could name that has a damned good shot at superceding DVDD never mind superceding BD because BD just won't get there. Technology is just chagning much faster now than 10 years ago

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PDC 2009: What have we learned this week?

There was the freebie that no one will forget, the heebie-jeebies courtesy of Scott Guthrie, and a teensy bit clearer picture of how this cloud thingie should work.

Live report: Will Google Chrome OS change Linux?

The mysteries of just what Chrome OS is, and how much of an operating system it truly is, may be resolved today.

PDC 2009: Microsoft cares about Web browser performance

The effort to give users of the world's dominant Web browser the impression of quality, is a personal one for the man who leads that battle.

Nokia re-affirms its commitment to Symbian, sort of

Maemo won't necessarily be replacing Symbian in the Nokia N-Series, but that's definitely a place where it will be found.

E-book readers will be in short supply this holiday season

E-readers are hot this year, and a lot of compelling new products have been released, but are there enough electrophoretic displays to go around?

Sony looks to finally open a single storefront for downloads

Sony has had many different download portals for movies, music, e-books, and games, and now it's looking to make a single shop for all of it.

Tuning out the tablet: Time to give the endless speculation a rest

Wide Angle Zoom: Wishing and hoping and thinking and praying....won't put an iTablet on the market.

Five improvements for IT managers in 2010

If businesses are to improve their efficiency for next year, they need to stop and reassess the basic tenets of their job.

AOL's spinoff from Time Warner to shed 2,500 jobs

As AOL moves toward become an independent company again, it will cut nearly a third of its workforce.

Gartner: SMS-based money transfer will be bigger than mobile browsing, search

Gartner issues its predictions for the 10 things our phones will be doing in 2012.

Don't forget to upgrade to Firefox 3.6 beta 3 today

Mozilla has released the latest beta its Firefox 3.6 browser software, just over one week after beta 2.