RSSCES Countdown #9: Will the smartphone become the 'new PC?'
By Jacqueline Emigh | Published December 29, 2008, 5:55 PM
Despite the G1, iPhone, and upcoming announcements such as LG's GD910 smartphone wristwatch, smartphones won't outshine PCs at CES 2009. For starters, Sony will reportedly launch a netbook PC with a choice of hard or solid state drive.
With all the hype surrounding devices like Apple's iPhone and the Android-enabled G1, you'd almost think that smartphones will replace PCs as the main attraction at CES. But how close will smartphones come to stealing the PC's thunder? Not as close as you might suppose -- this year, at least -- despite the growing capabilities and shrinking price tags of the pocket-sized devices.
Heading into 2009, smartphones are becoming increasingly well suited to the budgetary needs of consumers financially strapped by the current economic crisis. This week comes news that AT&T is now selling used -- or "refurbished" -- iPhones for as low as $99. Meanwhile, the G1 -- originally available from T-Mobile at $179 -- can now be found at Wal-Mart for $148.88 (in non-refurbished condition, no less).
Thanks to their embedded operating systems, these and other smartphones are now running applications, ranging from office suites and full-fledged dictionaries to mortgage calculators and graphics-intensive games, previously imaginable only on bigger computers. And video streaming capabilities are progressing to the point where media lions like NBC and MTV have been developing TV fare for the iPhone platform.
Still, though, smartphones aren't dealing comfortably with displaying some highly data intensive applications. And in at least a couple of other aspects -- storage and data input -- they aren't coming close to fulfilling the same functionality as netbooks and larger laptop PCs. Although the advent of cloud computing makes it easier to access data stored elsewhere, smartphones don't offer enough real estate for handling large volumes of data offline.
Data input is even more problematic. Texting (including SMS messaging) works fine for sending short messages. But there are lots of situations where a full-size keyboard will continue to come in handy. It's hard to imagine a day when people will be texting M&A and other lengthy tomes.
Moreover, it doesn't seem likely that CES will be the scene of a lot of significant product announcements on the smartphone side. New applications for the iPhone are likely to get a lot more play at MacWorld. Although Apple CEO Steve Jobs won't be keynoting this year, Apple isn't pulling out of that show until 2010. Yet Apple, in long established historical tradition, will be absent from CES 2009.
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| Selling netbooks like smartphones |
| Jacqueline Emigh |
Although prices are usually lower for smartphones than for netbook PCs, that's not necessarily the case when the PC is subsidized. The day before Christmas, for example, Radio Shack wrapped up a ten-day promotion in which Acer's Aspire One netbook -- ordinarily priced at $499.99 -- was sold for just $99.99. |
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Acer's Aspire One netbook |
The only catch in the Acer netbook deal was that customers needed to agree to a two-year contract for 3G wireless service from AT&T Data Connect. Aside from 3G access, Acer's Windows XP-enabled, Intel Atom-powered netbook also comes with integrated 802.11 b/g Wi-Fi and 4G WiMAX. Although US retailers have been subsidizing mobile phones for some time now, Radio Shack is the first in the nation to run a subsidized deal for a netbook. Reportedly, though, Germany and some other countries had already been selling netbooks bundled with 3G services. |
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Meanwhile, Android software applications promise to turn more interesting, but in a turn of events that could happen later this year rather than sooner. According to the recently rolled out "cupcake" roadmap, a future release of Android will be endowed with support for video recording, soft keyboard, and stereo Bluetooth.
On the device side, Palm has already just about confirmed the announcement of a new smartphone at CES 2009. Details remain sketchy, though, except that the new phone will run on the Linux-based Nova platform.
LG Electronics is acting a lot less mysterious about the forthcoming LG-GD910, previewing the product prior to its public launch at CES. But the GD910 -- a cross between a smartphone and wristwatch -- is really a novelty item as opposed to a mainstream phone, regardless of its inclusion of features such as a touchscreen, MPC player, camera, and built-in speaker for speech-to-text and text-to-speech.
Motorola, Sony and Samsung are widely reported to be readying Android devices, but neither has given an inkling yet of any Android announcement at CES.
Despite rumors a few weeks ago of some sort of "Zune phone" in the offing from Microsoft, it now seems probable that Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer's CES keynote will focus instead on some sort of Zune-capable smartphone software platform from Microsoft, instead of a Windows-based hardware device.
There should be a lot more new stuff available to actually touch and feel at CES on the PC side, however. Just for starters, there's the emerging category of the netbook, kind of a hybrid between a notebook PC and smartphone.
Netbooks aren't nearly as portable as smartphones, and they share some of the same limitations. Often, they cost more. But they're much more capable than phones across areas that include display, storage, and data input.
Like LG with its smartphone/watch, Intel has been previewing its own major CES announcement. As previously reported in BetaNews, it's second-generation Classmate netbook for kids known as the Classmate Convertible.
Last week, Sony began leaking information about its own first generation netbook. The Sony Vaio Pocket will reportedly feature a 1200-by-768-pixel, 8-inch backlit LED and a choice of a 60 GB hard disk drive (HDD) or a 128 GB solid state drive (SSD).
Larger notebook PCs slated for launch at CES will offer new features across areas running the gamut from graphics and display to WiMAX wireless Internet. For more details, stay tuned all next week.
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| A picture believed to depict LG's presumably forthcoming GD910 "smartphone wristwatch." |
FOLLOW THE COUNTDOWN:
- #13: Can automotive electronics maintain forward momentum? by Angela Gunn
- #12: Has streaming media already rendered discs obsolete? by Tim Conneally
- #11: Are the desktop PC's days waning? by Scott Fulton
- #10: Can technology keep television relevant in the digital era? by Tim Conneally
I don't know if smartphones will soon replace PC's but I know my iPhone seems to be! (written on an iPhone 3G) ;-)
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|Writing software is hard work. The concept of writing it on a cell phone is so absurd it boggles my mind, small though it is. All games are written on PCs not tablets or consoles or paper. A general purpose computer will always have a place and use simply because it is so adaptable. Almost all other devices are single or limited use. You can do so many other things on a computer than a console or phone or tablet. The computer is a great invention because it is so adaptable. The latest and greatest tech is not necessary for the computer to be very useful. The software used on it is the enabling tool and I can't imagine developers, developers, developers flocking to these limited devices except as an additional market. They will create for them but NOT on them. The cell phone is an end user device much like the television or radio, and similarly a limited device. You can pack in all the gadget and cool features that sell to the masses but they are not going to be a major creative force in the world,
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|Yup, PCs are dead. And all offices are paperless.
Just another overly simplified hype headline.
Smartphones will work for some, just as MP3 players suffice for those who prefer portability and convenience to quality audio for some.
But will they replace PCs for A/V editing. complex spreadsheets, document management, and the myriad other things that are routinely handled by a workstation?
If you are still wondering that, well, you deserve this thread.
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|What astounds me, foxfyre, is that you consistently stop reading at the point where the headline ends, and then complain that the headline is not enough or oversimplified or hype. If this is hype, then I ask you, does the subject matter you believe to be hyped match the actual contents of the story?
-SF3
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|Oh, sorry, we forgot to mention the insightful:
"Netbooks aren't nearly as portable as smartphones, and they share some of the same limitations. Often, they cost more. But they're much more capable than phones across areas that include display, storage, and data input."
So does that mean your hype headline is even negated by your insight into Netbooks?
My original point stands. The sensationalist bait headline is nonsensical hype at best, and lacks any indication of a simple balanced perspective.
But "Man bites dog" sure pulls 'em in, doesn't it? It would be just fine for you to report real trends and offer balanced perspectives regarding the simple pros and cons of products instead of trying to make the news with such blantantly sensationalist conjecture.
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|you consistently stop reading at the point where the headline ends
...
does the subject matter you believe to be hyped match the actual contents of the story
Wait;
You are basically saying the headline doesn't match the story...
*laughing*
Journalism 101 has now been changed to Sensationalism 101, apparently...
The headline is laughable. Even reworded to match the actual story, it's completely absurd. "Smartphones won't replace the PC any time soon."
Can we say, "Duh?"
How about we make a headline that makes logical sense *and* matches the story?
"New smartphones with new features debuted at CES:"
The whole comparing them to PCs bit is simply ludicrous.
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|LOL omg... So we will all be playing Multiplayer games via a 3 inch screen? God it amazes me how some of these people even have the right to think - let alone the right to put their thoughts on paper.
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|I don't think smart phones will take over PC's in the near future but as processors get smaller and faster maybe in the distant. When computers and cell phones start using the same processors thats when smart phones will take over. You'll have a port on the phone to slide into a docking station so you can use it with your keyboard, mouse and monitor. Also as speech recognition gets better we won't have to rely on the keyboard as much.
The technology is getting faster, but I still think PC's have another 5-10 years. Notebooks will take over PC's in about 5 years when they allow people to build and upgrade a notebook like we can a desktop now. At that point desktops will fade and we'll just have notebooks and smartphones (and regular cell phones which will be used by the older crowd).
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|I'm of the opinion that Microsoft's downfall (i.e. less than 50% marketshare) will ultimately come mostly at the hands of their inability to react quickly enough (at all?) on the smartphone front.
I can easily see a world where we work primarily from iphones and simply hook them up to large displays when needed.
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|I wouldn't count Microsoft out just yet. Yes they've been slow coming out with a quick mobile OS but thats because they've been fighting with themselves. They've been trying to make a mobile OS thats like windows so people using windows will pick it up and be familiar with it. Its a good idea but the wrong direction and I think (hope) that Windows Mobile 7 or the Zune phone software will be OS' that are more streamlined and simple instead of more Windowsesk. They see the other mobile OS' and hopefully they're listening to the people and also watching the trend that a fast and simple OS is better than a clunky OS that looks like Windows.
I do believe in time we may do most of our work on mobile phones. I also think that in time when servers get to be cheap and easy enough for people to manage and buy their will be a lot of home servers. Then you'll have your smartphone hook up to your home server to view videos and pictures and work related stuff. You'll connect to your work server and home server through your smartphone (like we do for email now).
The other way it can work other than what I mentioned is that you have your phone which doesn't need to have a really fast processor connect to your home and work server. Your phone will just be a conduit between different servers when you're mobile, but when you're home you'll use terminals around your house that are connected to your home server.
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|work primarily from iphones
Really?
Client applications? Network security? Systems management?
Maybe a few execs who do *nothing* but send emails and text messages, but the real work still requires a device that can at least authenticate on the network and use/display (in the case of terminals) common client applications.
I can't even imagine Axiant (to name one commonly used client application) on *any* smart-phone.
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