RSSCES Trend #8: Cheaper flash memory leads to new CE possibilities
By Scott M. Fulton, III | Published January 1, 2008, 9:00 AM
Our countdown to next week's Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas continues now with how impossibly cheap flash memory, coupled with lesser than expected demand for it, could lead to newer classes of flash-based devices.
The dream of embedded device designers and consumer device manufacturers is to be able to embed new, higher levels of functionality into more everyday items. Still on the drawing boards of futurist designers are the wallet or purse that can report itself stolen, the doorknob that remembers what time it was last opened, the authentication device capable of passing or failing employees' smart cards in low- or no-power situations, and the credit card that helps its bearer make his payment on time.
And everyone involved in the design of something called the ultra-mobile PC, including Intel, still sees the possibility of a third tier of personal computer: the sub-notebook, or "flashtop." With Linux capable of attaining a very low profile, and Microsoft giving the low-profile idea one last try with Windows XP, the dream of embedding a complete, multi-purpose OS in a handheld PC that millions will want under their trees next Christmas, is alive and well.
Embedded development is planning a resurgence, and it's counting on flash memory to be its launch vehicle.
But for non-volatile memory to reach that vaulted position of ubiquitousness in every vacant slot and empty pocket in our lives, it must clear a very serious hurdle: There currently aren't enough manufacturers producing novel and innovative designs for flash-embedded devices that consumers appear to actually desire. The market today continues to depend on Apple to supply the innovation and lead the charge in small devices, but Apple's success alone isn't enough to sustain what should become a new and relevant product category: functional, multimedia, portable, memory-based devices.
With the cost of NAND flash memory continuing to plummet far, far below what its manufacturers hoped would be the floor, what are the impediments to flash being able to open a huge new market in non-PC functional devices? The remaining problems are perhaps threefold:
- Traditional hard disk drive technology continues to evolve, and at a faster pace. Last August, Toshiba gained ground in that department with a 320 GB HDD in the 2.5-inch form factor, impressive not because it spins faster like Seagate's 2.5-inch 7200 rpm and 10000 rpm models, but actually slower -- 4200 rpm -- presumably without sacrificing much throughput speed and while reducing power consumption. Flash would possibly have an opportunity to make a real stand in the portable multimedia device department, were it not for the fact that HDD is such a fast-moving target.
- Cell phones are completing their metamorphosis into multi-purpose devices, and in so doing are annexing many of the leftover viable applications that could conceivably justify a stand-alone flash-based product line. The PDA is actually dying, and consumers now expect to find more new functionality in their unified handsets. Unfortunately, that trend is slowing down the rate of inclusion of NAND flash in those devices that would appear to need them most, because the rate of innovation there is being dictated either by the telecommunications carriers or by certain software companies that would spoil their plans, such as Google. By delivering respectable applications to mobile devices for next to nothing -- especially location services -- Google is forcing competitive location devices such as GPS to evolve to the premium side rather than the value side, justifying their existence by going for the "value-add" rather than the discount.
- The market expects Apple to innovate first. Apple is a good customer for flash producers, at one time giving Samsung an exclusive contract for both flash memory for iPod nano and digital signal processors for iPod across the board. Now, its iPod Touch includes flash from Samsung, Toshiba, Hynix, and Micron. With Apple working at its own pace, it could be up to someone else to open up a new market in embedded CE devices this year, if anyone's going to do it at all. But consumers are skeptical of any new competitors, as evidenced by Palm's debacle last year with the Foleo. It's up to the flash memory manufacturers themselves to create the incentive for a new company to go up against Apple, and to avoid the fate of Palm. With no more room for discounts, their value proposition may have to become a bit more intellectual. While a new, big market would open up a world of good for them, they can't afford to upset the single customer that could comprise the largest single share of their NAND sales.
Innovating up through the bargain basement
The wholesale price for flash memory continues to descend beneath levels anyone ever anticipated would be viable. But the reason for that descent is not high consumer demand coupled with standardization and mass production, as is the case with hard drives and most other electronics components. In fact, the market conditions for NAND flash are surprisingly the opposite: Analysts including market research firm iSuppli point out that throughout 2007, producers' demand for flash memory declined, perhaps due to a shakeout in flash-enabled consumer devices in key markets such as MP3 players, where Apple dominates.
Last November, iSuppli projected that wholesale memory prices for 512 megabits of DRAM could have plummeted below an average of $1.00 by the end of 2007, and 512 Mb of NAND flash could have fallen to as low as $0.46. That means a typical CE device producer may be paying about $59 to equip a device with 8 GB of flash RAM (128 x 512 Mb @ $0.46).
The more devices a CE manufacturer produces, the lower that figure goes. iSuppli's recent teardown analysis of Apple's newest iPod Touch revealed that it uses two 32 gigabit NAND flash ships for its 8 GB model, typically from Toshiba, Hynix, Micron, or Samsung. Each of those chips probably costs Apple only $20, meaning Apple is likely paying one-third less for the NAND flash it uses for its iPod Touch, nano, and Shuffle than the market average.
On the opposite end of the market, iSuppli's analysis continually reveals that Apple is willing to purchase whatever small form-factor hard drives for its iPods that it can obtain for no more than $80. Two years ago, that was a 30 GB drive; last year, it was 80 GB. During the same period, the company's $50 of expenditure on NAND flash for iPod nanos produced 2 GB of memory in 2005, then 8 GB in 2007. Some business analysts concluded this means, on a linear scale, flash capacities are accelerating faster. The problem is, over the last four years, HDD capacity availability appears to be increasing exponentially, not linearly, driven -- according to manufacturers -- by consumer demand for very high capacity for multimedia.
Next: Why isn't demand for storage driving demand for memory?
Yawn... Anyone curious why they are posting this crap, and not the fact that Xbox live has been broken for the last 10 days...
http://www.engadget.com/...and-down-ten-days-later/
Of course, they are paid off Microsoft puppets here...
However, when it gets embarrassingly too long to ignore it, you can bet they will spin it "Due to so many Xboxes being sold this holiday, Xbox Live simply could not handle it.."
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|I haven't had any problems with Xbox Live in the past two weeks. Not everyone is getting slammed, at least.
I don't see how they're MS puppets here though...
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|This the first I've heard of it. I've been playing the crap out of Burnout Paradise among other games and no problems at all.
It figures a little b!tch like Joey/Dave would find something to whine about as BD is getting slammed in movie sales lately.
I have also come to the conclusion that even the Wii is a better system than the PS3 when it comes to game play and overall enjoyment. Since Christmas, it has been used daily and we have bought four games since then. It's pure fun at 480i. It reminds me of classic gaming from the 80's. It's a completely different experience from the 360.
Meanwhile the PS3 sits in lonely third place with no dts Master Audio or a decent exclusive game to keep people interested. It's a very average BD player that is great for Netflix BD rentals and the two movies I actually own. I had to go buy the Bluetooth remote as this POS cannot be controlled via IR unless you plug a PS2 IR adaptor and use the PS2 IR remote codes. Great move Sony.
The HD-DVD movie count (at my house) has just topped 75 with the HP box set. That puts the attach rate over BD in my house at 37.5 to 1.
I also heard Warner put HD-DVD versions of the movies in the Blu Ray Harry Potter box sets. LMAO! Even Warner doesn't give a crap about BD apparently.
I've been reading your desperate posts over at blu-ray.com Joey / Dave. Have you lost your freaking mind? You are one sad sack of crap with no life.
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|Apparently they had so many HD DVD versions of Harry Potter HD DVD, as nobody was buying it on HD DUD, they stuck the spares ones in the Blu boxes..
I don't know what planet you are on, or if you think your silly lies might sway Warner from their upcoming Blu exclusivity, but Blu is killing HD DVD this season. Even with the Bourne Identity, It's still 70% Blu, and rising, with lots of new PS3's coming online. (and despite what you say, PS3 is still king of the hidef players, Blu and HD DVD, with a startup time and quality that simply cannot be beaten). I notice you no longer focus on PS3's Profile 1.1, and have moved on to lack of DTS-MA now, which I'm sure will be along soon in a firmware update. I don't see any other consoles even coming close the features of the PS3.
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|Hehe. The best is to ignore him. I really hope he is a 13 year old so there is still hope when he grows up.
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|Keep telling yourself that Joey, too bad I can buy any movie I want while you're stuck with one format. I simply choose to buy the better of the two.
Your close minded name calling cracks me up because that's exactly what someone who knows they are wrong does when confronted.
I could care less if Warner goes exclusive or anybody else for that matter, you are the only one who thinks your player and chosen format might go extinct. If you were actually confident in your "choice" than you wouldn't be here or on blu-ray.com cheerleading like a little girl.
You know I'm right and you also know you are beneath me. By the way, the PS3 can never do dts Master Audio as NONE of the Sony players have it included as of yet. It's a hardware issue, not software Dave.
"I notice you no longer focus on PS3's Profile 1.1, and have moved on to lack of DTS-MA now, which I'm sure will be along soon in a firmware update."
Exactly what an unsure scared little girl would say when confronted with a question they don't know the answer to.
What did it take? Over a year to deliver a feature none of us can actually use yet? Yay PS3, I'm so glad I have one ..... get a life or some better comebacks Dave.
Only one of us has been proven to be a lying POS so far. Remember your cnet profile that says you own 3 different BD players and an HD-DVD? Then you gave the HD-DVD player a 1 out of 10 while giving the PS3 a 10 out of 10 and the other two BD players a 9?
Any of this ring a bell? Here's a link for anyone who doesn't know you already.
http://www.cnet.com/5270...0-2.html?userID=1150478
Remember little boy, I've owned a PS3 since the North American launch, unlike you who said you owned one but didn't actually get one until June of 2007.
Are you finished making yourself look stupid or do I have to go busting you up all of 2008?
Why not post a link to your petition for the major studios who don't support Blu Ray.
http://petitionspot.com/petitions/Blu-ray/
Can anyone say "loser with no life"
Any more pics of that space saving "plasma" you can't mount on a wall because you live in an apartment? Good choice though, way to think it through.
Wait, I've got the original dust encrusted system you posted. What are puling down? Six figures after taxes? I would guess it's low five figures after seeing this:
http://img409.imageshack...09/1838/image038bf9.jpg
You claim to own that TV, yet your cnet profile doesn't show it as a product you own. Why is that? Just three next gen movie players you lied about owning so you could give them fake reviews.
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|What negative(not to say misinformed)& uncouth drivel you spout!!!
It's a great article.
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|I'm so sick of hearing people say things like, "The market today continues to depend on Apple to supply the innovation..." The only thing Apple is innovative at is finding new ways to lock their devices down and force you closer and closer to having to buy one of their desktops in order to continue using their iGarbage phone/media player. Seriously, there were PPC phones 6 years ago that were very similar to what apple has today, aside from the fact they were less powerful then. Not to mention other more recent phones that are significantly more innovative, with the exception of a touch screen interface. The only thing thats different with Apple, is they spend about 1k times more hyping up their garbage products.
http://www.thebestpagein...erse.net/c.cgi?u=iphone
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|You missed the end of that sentence: "and lead the charge in small devices."
The point is that Apple is supplying the innovation to make devices smaller and smaller. Look at the iPod compared to its predecessors. Look at the iPhone compared to current PPC devices. Apple has pioneered cramming more memory into smaller form factors. Even its laptops were slim while Dell and HP were busy making clunky behemoths.
Yes, other companies are starting to follow suit, but Apple is still leading the charge while others (like the new Zune) are trailing behind. The problem, as the article points out, is that Apple alone isn't enough to sustain the market.
You can hate Apple all you want, but absurd claims like "the iPhone is very similar to PPC devices from 6 years ago" just kill your argument.
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