RSSFuturesource: 82% of Blu-ray discs are 'pipeline fill'
By Tim Conneally | Published February 23, 2009, 6:29 PM
Market research company Futuresource today released its Blu-ray disc market outlook for 2009, and projected sales to exceed 100 million units as players come down in price. This would represent another in a series of vast leaps in market size.
In the US in 2008, Blu-ray disc sales grew 320% to a total of 24 million units. Sales of 100 million would represent a 416% growth.
Worldwide production of Blu-ray Discs, however, was in excess of 200 million last year, and only 36 million sold. Futuresource Senior Consultant Michael Boreham says this overproduction is not a miscalculation in demand, but rather the act of "filling the pipeline," or pushing out product in anticipation of its future demand.
"There were concerns over how well the manufacturers would cope with the demands placed on them last year," said Boreham, "But as a result of good planning and excellent cooperation there were no problems in the busy fourth quarter. It's going to be interesting to see what happens this year, as we're not seeing the same level of investment in manufacturing equipment that we saw in the early days of DVD."
At the close of 2008, studio heads actually scaled back their projections in response to the worsening economic climate. Where they had originally anticipated a billion dollar year, a 3%-4% decline in consumer spending was taken into consideration and projections were adjusted to the vicinity of $750 million, where it finished the year.
Betanews is awaiting reply from Futuresource about the impact of competing formats such as DVD (which netted $26 billion last year), streaming, and direct download on the firm's projections for this year.
The problem with Blu-ray is that the prices still remain too high for mainstream america to buy one, and that's IF they already have an HDTV. That is the main problem, Blu-ray needs a different TV also, where DVD when it came out worked fine on your current TV.
I have an HDTV but still haven't sprung for Blu-ray, partly due to the price, but also the price of movies is outrageous. Yes I know the content is better, but it isn't work as much as they are charging. I'll suffer through slightly less quality to watch it on DVD. Besides with upconverting I doubt it would make much different overall.
Also streaming HD may not be quite as good as HD on blu-ray but its a heck of lot cheaper to do.
It doesn't make sense to flood the marketplace though with all that product if no one is buying.
Score: 0
|Well, what do you expect when you solve a problem that doesn't exist? There is a reason why Blu-ray floundered in the market place: there was no demand for it before it came out and it didn't elicit any real desire in the minds of consumers after it did. No surprise there. Lesson to manufacturers is this: before you launch a new generation of a product, make SURE that consumers are actually going to place enough value on it to want to spend the money you are asking for it. This isn't a "Field of Dreams" guys. Just because you can build it, doesn't mean they will come.
Score: 0
|Same old nonsense. New spin.
Overpriced limited product mix featuring far too few classic titles worth buying.
And I love how a 3-4% spending decline results in a 25% BR market decline. Interesting.
Explain the problems however you like. We still aren't buying.
Score: -1
|When they stop trying to charge 30 bucks a movie....tsk
Score: 2
|A lot of people will buy stuff and feel it is better only because it is expensive.
Most people sit too far away from their TV to ever see the difference between DVD and Blu Ray. If you charge $100 for a $20 bottle of wine, most people find it to taste better. The same is true if you charge double or more for a Blu Ray - it makes people feel it is better by the placebo effect, even when they sit too far away to see any difference.
Score: 1
|I can believe that. The prices are stupidly high. I think they need to be sold at the same price as DVD and replace DVD not be some premium second format. It's insane to also release a lot of crap at a premium price and leave the better movies only available on DVD.
I understand they want to create new content (sometimes) for the new movies on DVD but I can't say I would pay a premium for that content. A movie that is $10 on DVD is only worth $10 to me on Blu-Ray. Much of what they have selected to release on Blu-Ray is crap that they put out anytime there is a new format. There are also many movies that Blu-Ray doesn't add any value to but does add cost to. Knocked Up. Nick and Nora's Infinite Playlist. No reason to go Blu-Ray with those unless you are projecting on a huge display where the resolution will make a difference and even then there shouldn't be a $8 premium on the disc!
I think Disney (yeah I generally think they are out of it) did it Right with Cinderella. While they are asking a premium they at least include a digital copy AND a regular DVD of the movie as well for the price.
Score: 1
|