Intel: Penryn 45 nm Processors On Track for November

Based on the initial word we're receiving from the Fall Intel Developers' Forum in San Francisco this afternoon, there are no major surprises other than the lack of surprises. There is no delay in the company's plans to roll out the first commercial 45 nm processors, code-named Penryn, this November as scheduled.

During his keynote speech at IDF, CEO Paul Otellini turned up the volume in his efforts to psych out his competitor, using a verbal image we've already seen get under AMD's skin. Intel is now actually calling its roadmap, by name, "tick-tock."

"Our tick-tock strategy of alternating next generation silicon technology and a new microprocessor architecture, year after year, is accelerating the pace of innovation in the industry," Otellini is quoted to have said (a stream of his keynote address should be available from Intel soon). "Tick-tock is the engine creating today's most advanced technologies and keeps them coming out at a rapid cadence. Our customers and computer users around the world can count on Intel's innovation engine and manufacturing capability to deliver state-of-the-art performance that rapidly becomes mainstream."

In previous discussions of its "cadence," Intel has characterized the tick and the tock as occurring in six-month intervals, with a new processor architecture rollout taking place during the "tick" and a manufacturing process improvement during the "tock." In the second half of next year, the company plans to introduce its Nehalem architecture - its first with a built-in memory controller, which it's calling "QuickPath Interconnect." This will be the analogous component to AMD's DirectConnect architecture, which was the first to eliminate the front-side memory bus.

Regardless of whether it appears Intel conceded the fact that it was second with this innovation, it also conceded it will help drive down power consumption. So in the end, it will be the amount of that reduction which analysts will take into account. AMD has already tried to befuddle this issue a bit by introducing a new type of power measurement metric that yields lower numbers than Intel's typical TDP measurement. But while customers get accustomed to AMD's ACP metric, or try to, it will continue to provide TDP numbers. So if the Nehalem generation does reduce power consumption to any appreciable extent, Intel could seize the tentative lead in performance-per-watt.

Meanwhile, Intel's first 32 nm processors will emerge in 2009, according to the current schedule. Not the "first half," not the "second half," but "2009"...which is one pretty broad "tock."

It's that generation which will mark Intel's rollout of its high-k-plus-metal-gate (HK+MG) manufacturing technology, which will put its newly discovered materials process to use in making far smaller transistors than ever before, opening the door to shrinkage beyond the 32 nm level.

With IBM helping AMD implement the same technology (though perhaps with a forthcoming 45 nm generation to begin with), that company has said 2009 might be the earliest that it could roll out an HK+MG process. Without question, that process will yield lower power consumption for both manufacturers.