Spring 2006 PS3 Release in Doubt

The release of Sony's highly anticipated PlayStation 3 may not occur in the U.S. until the holiday season of 2006, analysts say. Furthermore, in what could be potentially damaging to the gaming console's overall sales, the number of titles available may be far less than competitor Xbox 360.

A working version of the console was notably absent at this year's Consumer Electronics Show, and Sony CEO Howard Stringer left any mention of the PS3 out of his keynote address. A non-working model was displayed behind glass, and only non-playable demos of games were shown at Sony's booth.

The lack of any public comments from Sony regarding the console has led some gaming industry analysts to speculate that the company may miss its spring 2006 target it announced at E3 2005.

Such a miss could become the big story of this year's E3 conference, to be held May 9-12 in Los Angeles.

Expectations as to when the PS3 will launch varies from source to source. According to MarketWatch, William Drewry of Credit Suisse First Boston said a decision to delay had not been made and would be dependent on the ramping up of production of the Cell microprocessor jointly developed between Sony, IBM and Toshiba. He speculated a one to two month delay on the console's launch.

Another analyst, Evan Wilson of Pacific Crest Securities, said a Japan launch would occur during the summer, followed by a U.S. launch in November and European launch in March of next year.

Wilson went even further to say he expected a "weaker" game lineup for the 2006 holiday season.

If such a launch schedule were to be used, Microsoft could have far more Xbox 360s on the market by Christmas, while the PS3 would just begin shipping to retail outlets. Gamers who couldn't find a PS3 may opt for the far more available Microsoft console, analysts speculate.

Microsoft has said it is on track to sell 4.5 to 5 million consoles in its first six months of launch.

A delay of the PS3 could have effects on Sony's business elsewhere. Supporters of Blu-ray, the Sony created next-generation DVD format, are quick to point out a flood of the new PlayStation in consumers' hands would give the format an advantage over HD DVD.

These same analysts also say that Sony faces a problem of cost; if it prices the console too high, gamers could scoff and opt for competing consoles at a much lower price. Some project the PS3 could run over $400 for just a basic version, a full $100 more than the core Xbox 360.

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