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The Chances of Zune's Success

By Scott M. Fulton, III, BetaNews

September 15, 2006, 9:53 PM

PERSPECTIVE This week's revelations from Microsoft concerning its forthcoming Zune portable media player constituted, as the Washington Post's Ben Bradlee put it, a "non-announcement announcement." While some consumers may be more excited about the Zune today than they were on Wednesday, none of us know yet: 1) the price; 2) the date of final availability; 3) who will be providing content for the Zune Marketplace.

A spokesperson for Microsoft confirmed to BetaNews yesterday that the Zune player will not use Microsoft's own PlaysForSure DRM scheme. While it will play Windows Media audio (WMA) and video (WMV) files, the same DRM scheme that will make Windows Media Player work with PlaysForSure-supporting devices such as Creative's Zen series, will not be used for Zune.

Instead, although Zune's software bears a striking resemblance to WMP 11 with a fresh skin, the spokesperson told us, Zune will use its own software for Windows, which will be separate from WMP and tightly integrated with services such as the Zune Marketplace.

For some, it is a baffling decision. While up until this summer, at least, Microsoft had been working to provide supplemental marketing and support for PMP vendors such as Creative, iRiver and SanDisk who would otherwise have had to go it alone. Now, the Zune could emerge as their own fiercest competitor, and analysts are wondering to what extent Microsoft will continue to support PlaysForSure.

"It's certainly an unusual situation," remarked Ross Rubin, director of industry analysis at NPD Group. Typically, Rubin said, there are two business models for personal media player vendors: One is the Apple model which has extensive vertical integration -- meaning, it owns its production chain and it also owns the distribution channels that support it -- and thus, no licensing is involved. The other model has typified the PlaysForSure strategy to this point. It involves alliances, partnerships, consensus, and plenty of licensing among all the parties involved.

Microsoft ZuneMaintaining both models simultaneously - trying to be both vertically integrated, while at the same time pursuing licenses - may become impossible over time, Rubin believes. A similar situation befell mobile services company Palm in 2003, leading them "to split out the PalmSource operating system into a separate company, when they were trying to expand the market and get new licensees," Rubin added. As a result of that spinoff, PalmSource now finds itself competing with Microsoft in getting its operating system onto the very machine with which it shares a name.

But there might be a difficulty with simply throwing out the second model, and concentrating on just the first one.

"Companies always face a tougher road when they try to drive their own standards through the market," Info-Tech senior research analyst Carmi Levy told BetaNews. "If Microsoft is going to toss PlaysForSure and Windows Media Player aside, despite all the years of investment that they've put into them, they do so at great peril and great risk. The market is still figuring out what DRM methodologies and schema make the most sense for owners of content, distributors of content, device manufacturers, and consumers."

"And the answer is still not there yet," added Levy. "So if you pitch something out the window before it's had a chance to take root, and try to introduce something else that's proprietary, you run the risk of isolating yourself."

Rather than carve out a hybrid approach, Zune will attempt a more vertically integrated model, similar to what the company already does with Xbox and Xbox 360. It's no surprise that the face behind Zune, Microsoft's J. Allard, was also behind the new Xbox. In so doing, however, it introduces yet another DRM model to a market full of content providers who are already confused by the existing ones.

"As we've seen, this is one of the most contentious issues in the entertainment industry today," remarked Levy. "This is something that's probably not going to be resolved any time soon, and I think, if they're going to make an announcement on DRM, Microsoft wanted to make sure that it's final and that it's fully baked. The truth of the matter is, at this point in time, it's probably not fully baked."

"But at the same time, they didn't want to hold off on starting to generate hype for Zune any longer. So they're forced to make half of an announcement, but half of an announcement on the device is better than no announcement at all."

By contrast, Rubin contends Microsoft "baked" its approach a little more than Levy and others believe. Rubin argued Microsoft could actually take advantage of simultaneously supporting PlaysForSure and Zune, by developing both product lines into a Radio Shack-like, two-tiered "better" and "best" marketing scheme. "You'll have a good experience with PlaysForSure on your Windows," Rubin said, "but you can have an even better experience with Zune."

Next: Where's the zip in Zune?

Continued. . .
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By CoolDadd

edited Dec 27, 2006 - 7:48 AM

The iPod outsells its competition in spite of many competitor's superior hardware and features. Not because of the ingenious click wheel or style or advertising or faddish following. It's because it's easy to use. It's the software. iTunes manages an iPod better than any other software manages any other MP3 player and as long as this is so, iPod will lead the pack.

Score: 0

By StUmBliNgBl0ck

edited Nov 16, 2006 - 1:02 AM

Ok here is the deal i bought a Zune last night from Walmart just to try it out buying something from Walmart does not set anything in stone you can return anything there any ways I was all about the Ipod its a great music player and i think that is one of the best things apple has done in a long time I meen go anywhere and see if you can look around a store and not find something for your Ipod but my point is when i went to Walmart and droped the 249.99 down on the Zune I did it only to test it out and see how many real big changes there was between the Zune and Ipod there really was and after using it for a day im real impressed with MS new toy its going to give Apple a run for its money the FM radio is nice to have when bored of hearing my same old music over and over gives me something to play with also the Zune software makes the transfer of pics video and music fast and easy yes Itunes can do the hole music and photo but when it comes to video on the ipod it lacks plus the Zune battery is sick where if i was using my Ipod I could get only part way done with a movie before my battery was ready for a new charge the Zune allows you to not only finish your movie but still have time to do other stuff sense the battery lasts 12 hours for music and 4 and a hafe using video Ill be honest with every one I love Linux and would ues Linux all the time but there are just some stuff you cant do with out MS so I had to check what i thought would be a very sad joke of an mp3 player made by them but after using it im having A real hard time deciding if I still want to take it back of keep it the sound is great could just be the set of headphones that comes with it but it seems so much more crisp and the screen is so much nicer then the Ipod there are things that every one will hate about it and same for Ipod but not every one can use Linux and not evrey one Can install doom on there Ipod ya know so what MS has doen is made a very nice music player with a great battery and and nice screen and made it easy for people to use also the ugly shell every one is talking about is what in the long run will keep the Zune playing longer then the Ipod the plastic shell is nice and will take agood beating so for once im giving MS hats off for this one.

Score: 0

By Aires

edited Sep 22, 2006 - 12:28 PM

Serious comment:

For those actually seriously interested in Zune, have a read of this article here. It makes VERY interesting reading indeed.

http://www.slyck.com/news.php?story=1293

Score: 0

By Crispy777

posted Sep 19, 2006 - 8:41 PM

I think a 'walkman' should cost me $99 tops with good headphones. And NO copyright hassle.

Score: 0

By GCoder

posted Sep 19, 2006 - 3:08 PM

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

This is the biggest snoozer piece of crap.

Micro-sux (and this time its even truer than ever)

Score: 0

By ThePreacher

posted Sep 21, 2006 - 10:19 AM

>This is the biggest snoozer piece of crap.

Yes. I agree. Your post is very boring.

Score: 0

By indoguys

edited Sep 18, 2006 - 11:54 PM

What your all bla bla about? Nowhere is said MS will drop PlaysForSure. What if? what if? what if? Just sit and relax, use your IPOD, Zune, Zen, PlayForSure device what ever. Watch your video play your music, or you all want to do that on 10 devices at once? Who cares how a file is tranfered to your device in which standard? Copy paste is still the most used method for people anyway. What if Apple goes bankrupt next year? It is so easy to guess, keep it by facts. All those companies are commercial and want to get your $$$ easy as that no difference between Apple or MS or any other brand. And the one who feels sorry for all those PlayForSure companies... Wake up please, you thinnk they stick to this format for years and years to come? All business is a momentum, they know precisely for how many years to go, really think there was no line in their contracts with MS stating that they would give it a certain amount of years before to drop the concept? Keep spending your dollars as you do anyway and all companies know that PlayForSure ;-)

Score: 0

By Grazer

posted Sep 19, 2006 - 12:09 PM

Yeah, I especially like the comments I have read insinuating that MS intentionally misled its partners down the PlaysForSure path so it could swoop in an take the market. Let's not acknowledge that none of its partners could build the consumer confidence and recognition to compete with Apple. "Everything is MS' fault".

Score: 0

By ThePreacher

posted Sep 18, 2006 - 7:26 AM

If a company comes up with a competitive OS to Microsoft, it's all good.

If Microsoft comes up competitive product to another company, they are evil.

Ummm. Does that attitude sound screwed up to anyone else?

Score: 0

By prndll

posted Sep 18, 2006 - 12:10 PM

That's just what it may look like on the surface. There is so much more to it. I believe your thinking about this the wrong way.

Score: 0

By ThePreacher

posted Sep 21, 2006 - 1:51 PM

So I'm thinking about it wrong...

How?

Because I'm not jumping off the "I hate Microsoft" Lemming cliff?

Score: 0

By The Man

posted Sep 18, 2006 - 9:06 AM

if it were only so simple as that.

Score: 0

By ThePreacher

posted Sep 21, 2006 - 1:52 PM

>if it were only so simple as that.

I'm guessing it is exactly that simple or you would have offered an intelligent rebuff and not a trite dismissal.

Score: 0

By Frostek

posted Sep 21, 2006 - 1:38 PM

I've read that their old DRM system won't be compatible with the Zune, only the newer DRM.

That's kind of unpleasant for people who bought into the whole "licencing music" downloads idea isn't it?

Score: 0

By mrow

posted Sep 17, 2006 - 4:21 AM

I know I for one could care less about this thing. I'm getting the new iPod. (echoed by 100 million other consumers this and the following holiday season unless MS can come up with something that really matters. Zune is bulls***.)

Score: 0

By Intrusive_Rogue

posted Sep 18, 2006 - 2:37 PM

How does it feel to be a Leming?

Score: 0

By Paul Skinner

posted Sep 21, 2006 - 9:29 AM

Everything is built round the iPod, all the plugins, all the software for converting video to the correct size, and all the accessories too.

It's not that it's the best product any more, it's that it's the best supported.

Score: 0

By prndll

posted Sep 16, 2006 - 9:33 PM

There is no point in this. This kind of device (especially from MS) is a waste. I can't legally own enough music to put on one of these things to make it worth having. Anything I do end up legally able to put on it would be so controlled by someone else that I would end up no better off than if I were to be listening to the radio.

Would this thing have wi-fi or sat linkup for MS updates or would I have to plug it into a router every night? How secure is this thing? How easy would it be to get hacked and lead to some guy in a car 10 blocks away being able to see and hear everything that is happening around me? What kind of net access would this thing have? would it require some insane version of IE? How often would I have to call MS tech support for a new product key if I decide to use it to it's potential? How much control would I actually have over this thing once I've actually paid real money for it?

Score: 0

By Crispy777

posted Sep 19, 2006 - 8:43 PM

Five stars to this post! Those are the main reasons why I am still sticking to vinyl.

Score: 0

By cranbers

posted Sep 17, 2006 - 3:41 PM

Those are some great points. I have no doubt drm will own this thing. Being hacked with wifi, imagine that with an portable music player. Someone steals all your music, erases your hard drive and causes it to hard crash, requiring it be serviced by microsoft.

Then you have viruses, worms and everything else. This will all require updates, for years after its release. Gee doesn't that sound like windows?

Score: 0

By The Man

posted Sep 17, 2006 - 9:49 AM

good points,

"I can't legally own enough music to put on one of these things to make it worth having"

that one's my favorite
lol

Score: 0

By 33Nick

edited Sep 16, 2006 - 3:53 PM

Typical Microsoft. If you can't beat them, stick it to them, just like when we were in kindergarten. This is a step up from their insideous ways. Fanfaring the industry with Play For Sure, get people to come on board, then come out with your own inhouse solution and drop the ball on partners. That neatly takes care of the competition.

Frankly said, Zen is a better quality machine. iPods are nice and Zune has interesting functionalities added.

Watch Microsoft step down again to their common low level by underselling the competition. It's good to kick up the competition, I agree but hailing a system as THE solution, bringin on people and when finally there is enough movement, turning against these "allies" by bringing out your own system using your in-house software is not free-enterprise or capitalism... It's stupid especially in a market where the latest statisics clearly show the lack of confidence consumers have in Microsoft.

Piss off enough people and they will eventually get it. Good job Microsoft. No one can do it quite like that. The arrogance of yesteryear doesn't work anymore. You've lost the sympathy steam if you care to look around.

And please, cut the "free market/capitalism" crap out. It goes hand in hand with intelligence which there isn't much of these days, let alone finesse. Need examples? Look at Dell and their PDAs.

Score: 0

By cranbers

posted Sep 16, 2006 - 10:16 PM

Do you think anyone will be joining or partnering up with them again? Probably will I have no doub the companies who joined up had a better chance then going at apple alone without play for sure.

Score: 0

By belthurgp

posted Sep 16, 2006 - 2:51 PM

Let's wait and see what Microsoft has to offer. As the review above clearly says any other player on the market is worth more than an iPOD, and looking at the features what Zune has to offer, it may turn out to be the dark horse this holiday season. Knowing MS, they probably price it $50-$70 less than a 30gb iPOD.

As for as the software, MS already has a stable code base in WMP11, so putting on a new skin for it for Zune would make it just about right unlike a hurried effort in ITunes 7 which has caused umpteen problems with "early adopters".

As far as the issue of right goes, in a "free market/capitalist" environment, Microsoft tomorrow can even sell Microwave ovens. It's their money to invest and if a product sells, why not ?

Score: 0

By ehn

posted Sep 16, 2006 - 2:13 AM

I am disappointed that Microsoft has abandoned the PlayForSure infrastructure.

I don't see why Microsoft and MTV can't just combine their marketing efforts and promote WMP11, URGE, and Zune as an ideal platform. Given enough effort, people will come to associate the three components together as a closed ecosystem without it actually having to be closed.

This would allow those of us who have already invested in PlayForSure hardware and music downloads to easily transition over to the Zune player and management software if we so choose. Instead, Microsoft has chosen to exclude its own established PlayForSure user base which included everyone out there that already has Windows Media Player installed.

WMA files downloaded from the new Zune music store will be incompatible with existing WMA portables. WMA files downloaded from existing music stores will be incompatible with the new Zune player.

Everything people have spouted about WMA files being evil has come true. As a format, if Microsoft cannot keep WMA files standard then what sort of future is there for WMA a few years down the line?

Should have listened to the anti-Microsofties and stuck to MP3s.

Score: 0

By bobthegoat2001

posted Sep 18, 2006 - 3:25 AM

I didn't listen to either.... I use Ogg; with my iAudio X5 60gb.

Score: 0

By The Man

edited Sep 17, 2006 - 10:01 AM

"Everything people have spouted about WMA files being evil has come true.
Should have listened to the anti-Microsofties and stuck to MP3s."

Yup
:-)

Score: 0

By Ramhound

posted Sep 15, 2006 - 11:22 PM

How do they not have a right to develop hardware or software or anything they want. If their is a market for such product, they have a right to produce it.

I really hope you don't have an xbox 360, if you clearly cannot make up your mind, since Microsoft has as much business being in the console business as the portable mp3 player business.

You can take that for exactly what I said. Sure being able to control system for the other choices paid content, is perhaps dirty, you can't admit that its actually a good move.

If somebody wants to offer another choice for Creative then PlaysForSure, then I challenge people to develop a system, Microsoft took the challenge.

Is it their fault that nobody was else took the Challenge?

Original Challenge:
Develop a system compared to iTunes or Napster.

I would rather Microsoft provide us choices, then what they did 30 years ago by I admit, throwing dirt in companies faces if they didn't use their product.

But you could hardly say the samething about PlaysForSure and Zen Marketplace. Like I said perhaps they are in the sandbox, but they are playing nice and sharing their toys.

Score: 0

By Frostek

posted Sep 16, 2006 - 9:29 AM

"How do they not have a right to develop hardware or software or anything they want. If their is a market for such product, they have a right to produce it."

I agree completely, but that's not how Microsoft do it, is it?

It's called leveraging a monopoly. Essentially, the use of an existing monopoly in one market to leverage their way into another.

Score: 0

By frankwick

posted Sep 18, 2006 - 10:20 AM

Does MS have a monopoly?

Score: 0

By cranbers

posted Sep 15, 2006 - 11:01 PM

Yeah well once again here is microsoft sticking their ugly head in a market it has no business going. Fine they rolled out play for sure, obviously that was just for fun. This is only around to do one thing, damage Apple's primary revenue stream. Just like windows live search is to damage google's stream. This is meant to provide customers with something new or cool. This is what makes them different then any other company. They are greedy, sneaky and just plain rediculous.

Score: 0

By gekido

edited Sep 17, 2006 - 2:42 PM

did you even read the article?

they aren't using the same technology that they have been developing for years - ie WM DRM, WindowsMedia Player, etc and are creating a completely new DRM solution & windows application (ie the zune itunes app) for this.

They have to if they are going to do the 'DRM on the fly' of your mp3's so they can be transfered via the wireless (which is what the Zune will do, infect your mp3's with DRM). The existing MS DRM code won't do this kind of on the fly encryption.

Think Windows Media Player version 1.0 - how 'stable' was this?

Microsoft has burnt alot of bridges with the Zune, and combined with the fact that pretty much everyone hates them these days (from wall street on down), the Zune is a non-starter.

Score: 0

By VikingBlade

posted Sep 17, 2006 - 4:32 PM

Yeah... "different than any other company" Sorry but that is just naive if you think that's not what every single large company does. I notice you mention Apple, and Google. The companies that do the exact same thing... just like everyone else.

Score: 0

By imafurby

posted Sep 16, 2006 - 8:42 AM

I believe it's called "Free Enterprise."

Score: 0

By Frostek

posted Sep 16, 2006 - 9:41 AM

Free Enterprise is simply another term for capitalism, so try and use the correct terms.

Whilst I don't believe there is anything inherently wrong with the core tenets of capitalism, I do believe it to be a naive approach to think that capitalism without checks is a good idea.

I also consider the idea that a corporation may now claim "human rights" to be abhorrent and we have already seen problems caused by that idea already.

Score: 0

By PC Rat

posted Sep 16, 2006 - 9:33 AM

...

"I believe it's called 'Free Enterprise'."

...

Quite so !

...

The Computer Rodent

...

"Share a file /
Be deported to
Detroit"

...

Score: 0

By merlin666

posted Sep 18, 2006 - 2:26 PM

I'm getting too old for this ... starting to miss vinyl.

Score: 0

By Frostek

posted Sep 21, 2006 - 1:34 PM

Apparently, vinyl is "trendy" again... At least amongst some of the newer UK-based bandsand their fans. I don't know how long that will continue though. Until they get bored, I suppose.

It's nice to see cover art at a decent size though. :-)

Score: 0