10 for 2010: Microsoft stories that mattered

It's that time of year when everybody who is anybody or nobody writes retrospectives. I start with Microsoft, by highlighting 10 of my stories you should have read in 2010. You've got time now during the end-of-year lull or even a week off before the New Year. They're organized by importance, from least to most -- that is 10 to 1.

I didn't easily choose just 10. I weighed importance based on relevance of the analysis to Microsoft in 2010 and even in coming years. Not all readers will agree on which is more or less important, or perhaps not at all.

I will say this now: 2010 was an important year for Microsoft -- and not just because the company launched Azure, shipped new Office version or saw enterprises upgrading Windows and Windows Server again. Microsoft made an important course correction that I'll write about in a few days. The old dog is learning new tricks.

I will followup with similar posts on Apple and Google, highlighting the important stories about them, too. With that introduction, I present 10 Microsoft stories that mattered in 2010.

10. "It's a shame about Ray Ozzie": Microsoft's chief software architect fell on his sword for the good of the company. Ozzie and his supporters lost the internal squabble between the Office-Windows-Windows Server hawks and the open cloud computing doves. Not that he was ever one of "Ballmer's boys." This post presents the negative perspective on Microsoft's Office-Windows-Windows Server apps stack push to the cloud. See #2 for the positive benefits. Posted: October 25.

9. "Windows Phone 7 is doomed": Microsoft's problem isn't technology, but time. Short of bribing developers and customers to use Windows Phone 7, Microsoft cannot correct its mobile platform mistakes fast enough. Apple and Google will lock in customers the way Microsoft and its partners did with DOS/Windows PCs during the late 1980s and throughout the 1990s.

To be clear: I rather like Windows Phone 7. Whether or not I eat crow about "doomed" in 2011 or even 2012 may depend on the continued Windows 7 marketing push, which is simply exceptional. See #7 for a more positive perspective of Windows Phone's future. Posted: July 2.

8. "Three post-CES goals for Microsoft": This post will get some followup by me as the Consumer Electronics Show approaches on January 6, 2011. Two of the goals: Set shorter marketing and product development goals and hold smaller, more-intimate product events. Posted: January 8.

7. "The bright spot in Microsoft's mobile OS disaster is...": ...There's no place to go but up. But up doesn't have to be an arduous climb. To regain mobile momentum lost to Apple, Google and Research in Motion, Microsoft must change the rules of engagement, like David did in the Biblical battle with Goliath. Already, with the approach to the Windows Phone 7 user interface and product marketing, Microsoft is applying "David thinking." Posted: September 27.

6. "I have lost confidence in Steve Ballmer's leadership": The June 17 Windows Embedded Handheld announcement shattered my remaining confidence in Microsoft's CEO. A long-time Ballmer supporter, I could do so no longer. I stood by my man, but he failed me.

However, Ballmer renewed some hope following the company's annual Financial Analysts Meeting. See #5. Posted: June 18.

5. "Steve Ballmer has one more chance to save his job": Going into Microsoft's annual Financial Analysts Meeting, calls increased for Ballmer's ouster as CEO. The challenge: For Ballmer to show he is in charge. The post highlights 10 Microsoft weaknesses going into FAM and 10 strengths for fiscal 2011. By the way, Ballmer did surprisingly well showing vision during the keynote. Posted: July 28.

4. "Five reasons why Microsoft can't compete (and Steve Ballmer isn't one of them)": Microsoft's problems are strategic and structural, and they're by no means unresolvable. Among them: US and European antitrust cases put lawyers and non-technologists in charge of important final product decisions, which negatively has affected development for nearly a decade. Another: Microsoft lost control of file formats, during Ballmer's 10-year tenure. Posted: June 22.

3. "Why won't Wall Street give Microsoft a break?": Microsoft's stock has been moribund, rarely rising about $30 a share since 2000, the same year Steve Ballmer became chief executive. Revenue rose from $5.8 billion in fiscal 2001 first quarter to $16.2 billion during same quarter in FY 2011. The company is consistently profitable, and its products are used everywhere. Why doesn't Wall Street get it? Part of the problem is undeserved negative perceptions about Microsoft and even more undeserved positive perceptions about Apple. Posted: November 7.

2. "Microsoft shouldn't break up, but break away from its antiquated business model": On the tenth anniversary of Microsoft's antitrust settlement with the US Justice Department and eight states, it was appropriate to look back at the breakup question. In early 2000, US District Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson ordered that Microsoft break up into two companies for violating US antitrust law. Should Microsoft break up now, creating smaller, more flexible companies capable of stronger stock performance?

"No" is the answer. This post explains five hugely important problems Microsoft's cloud strategy solves for the company. It puts another perspective on Office-Windows-Windows Server apps stack push to the cloud discussed in #10. Posted: November 17.

1. "The Windows era is over": Prediction made in the post: The year 2010 will mark dramatic shifts away from Microsoft's monopoly to something else. Change is inevitable, and like IBM in the 1980s, Microsoft can't hold back its destiny during this decade. Mobile device-to-cloud competition's shifting relevance bears striking similarities to the move from mainframes to PCs, and it is a long, ongoing trend.

Whether the measure is Microsoft's push into the cloud, smartphones' dramatic sales gains (pushed by iPhone and Android handsets) or the success of cloud-hosted social sharing services like Facebook, the prediction has punch for the first half of decade 2010. Posted: May 26.