Have you bought then returned an Android phone?

Android Army

I'm asking because of a poorly reported and likely misleading post at TechCrunch.

The headline is compelling: "Android's Dirty Secret: Shipping Numbers Are Strong But Returns Are 30-40%". The sourcing is pure BS. John Biggs writes "many return rates are approaching 40 percent said a person familiar with handset sales for multiple manufacturers".

Here, at Betanews, such a story would be considered irresponsibly reported and would never be allowed to run with a single, anonymous source making such an outrageous claim. Some Betanews commenters complain about my headlines and writing style, but the sourcing is always solid -- and I would never let any of the other writers post a story making such claims as Biggs based on a single, unnamed source "familiar with handset sales for multiple manufacturers". Oh, please!

TechCrunch is widely read, so this report will likely get loads of links and set the Apple Fanclub of bloggers and reporters into a tizzy of posts about how much better iPhone is than anything else. Stories like this one also can have material impact on public companies that ship or sell Android phones. Their stock can go down.

There are four obvious reasons for questioning the sourcing's reliability:

1. If the source is so knowledgable and the claim is valid, he or she would go on the record. Insight like this makes careers.

2. If return rates were that high, some public company -- such as handset manufacturer or cellular carrier, for example -- would have to report them eventually because they affect the bottom line.

3. Return rates of 30 percent to 40 percent are catastrophic. There's simply no way that any of the hundreds of companies involved with Android could keep such a "dirty secret".

4. If return rates were so high an analyst firm that regularly does consumer research or surveys, such as ChangeWave, ComScore, Nielsen or NPD, would have uncovered this fact.


Something else for your synapses to process: Response to a recent Betanews poll. On July 15, I asked: "Which matters more to you, Android or iOS?" The post contained two polls (and one is embedded above). I asked about primary smartphone OS. These polls aren't scientific because there is no filtering question. Anyone can respond once. I presume that Betanews readers will answer, but anyone can. That said, the results are unsurprisingly consistent with larger industry stats from reputable analyst firms about smartphone OS adoption. With only 865 responses, 59.88 percent answered "Android" and 22.08 percent "iOS".

It's a relief that TechCrunch commenters are bright bulbs to see the sourcing problem. Mitchell Ribar: "'said a person familiar with handset sales' -- THAT'S your source? Might as well start quoting The Onion". Todd Goodwin: "How much you want to bet that 'person familiar with handset sales' is just the guy at the local mobile phone kiosk at the mall?" Michal Pietrusinski:

What a load of crap! No company would ever survive 30-40 percent returns. And in what Android is so much complicated than Apple? Three prevailing uses of iPhones are - internet, phone and games. How is Android any different in these areas? This is not a bare Linux for god's sake - it looks awesome and is very intuitive.

Anirvan Majumdar: "I can vouch for one stat -- John Biggs' claim is refuted by 100 percent of his readers". Now here's one for TechCrunch to refute: "I have a source that says 30-40 percent of TechCrunch writers are paid shills for Apple", Christopher Stuckey writes.


TechCrunch is obviously a bigger and more successful site than is Betanews. So it's easy for me to bark at the bigger dog. But my gripe has bite, too. I'm a journalist trained to properly source stories, particularly when making outrageous claims that will be repeated over and over.

Over at Google+, I will challenge Biggs to defend his sourcing, and I'll do some reporting of my own. Meanwhile, I'm asking you: Have you returned or do you know someone who has returned an Android phone? What about iPhone? And if there was return, what replaced the Android handset or iPhone. Please answer in comments. If nothing else, please answer the poll above.

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