RSSSteve Ballmer's denial can't stop change from coming
By Joe Wilcox | Published July 15, 2009, 4:00 PM
"On résiste à l'invasion des armées; on ne résiste pas à l'invasion des idées." -- Victor Hugo
Literal translation: "One withstands the invasion of armies; one does not withstand the invasion of ideas."
Often paraphrased: "Nothing is as powerful as an idea whose time has come."
Web-based operating system/platform is an idea whose time has come, whether or not Google succeeds with Chrome OS. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer can deny it. He can march his Office 2010 and Windows 7 armies into the enterprise. But, elsewhere, the Web platform is turning from idea to practical reality -- in large part because of mobile handsets.
Yesterday, on the one-year anniversary of App Store, Apple announced that iPhone users had downloaded 1.5 billion mobile applications. It's a momentous achievement for a relatively new platform. That's one sign of big changes coming. A new applications stack is emerging, from mobile device to the cloud. Steve Ballmer doesn't get it, even as Microsoft embraces cloud computing tied to the dominant Office-Windows-Windows Server applications stack.
BetaNews has transcribed portions of his comments from Microsoft's annual partner conference:
"What we really do understand is that the model of the future brings together the best of today's rich client Windows-style applications and some of the things that people consider the best of the Web. People like the deployment model, you click on a link and you get your application deployed. People like the notion that, kind of, the globe from an information perspective, and a people perspective, is built in. And people like the richness and visualization and responsiveness and offline characteristics of the Windows applications."
"So as we talk about where we're going, we don't need a new operating system. What we need to do is to continue to evolve Windows, Windows applications, IE [Internet Explorer], the way IE works in totality with Windows, and how we build applications like Office, like the stuff we showed here, and we need to make sure we can bring our customers and partners with us."
The people who download applications from Apple, BlackBerry, Google, Nokia or Palm mobile stores are not getting "Windows-style applications." These applications are lightweight and many are Web connected. Widgets running on my Nokia N97 keep persistent Web connections.
Microsoft's CEO will never understand the real power of the Web platform, but deny it, because:
- He's a salesman who makes customers the top priority. The approach his commendable. But what his enterprise customers tell him they want today holds Microsoft back from reaching tomorrow.
- Microsoft corporate culture is fixated on building up from existing products into new areas. This integration brings sales leverage for future products, which are chained to existing ones.
- Related: Next to security and extended integration, Microsoft's top design priority is backward compatibility. So, for the benefit of customer satisfaction, Microsoft looks too much behind while trying to move ahead.
Steve Ballmer has interesting ideas about where most people spend most of their time. He told Microsoft partners, yesterday:
"The truth of the matter is, there's good data that actually says that about 50 percent of the time, somebody's on their PC, at least 50 percent they're not doing something in the Web browser. So what we need is an operating system that brings local richness together with the Internet, and Windows is the operating system for the job."
Really, now? Fifty-percent of the time in a Web browser is a helluva lot. There is the other 50 percent. How much of that is in applications connected to the Web? I currently have five applications open, other than Web browser, and all are connected to the Internet. Meanwhile, I have seven browser tabs open to Web services, including the blogging platform for this post. So I'll ask you: How much of what you regularly do on a computer (or even smartphone) is connected to the Web? Please answer in comments.
Steve Ballmer's statement about an OS bringing "local richness together with the Internet" could as easily describe Android, iPhone OS, Mac OS, any Linux distribution or Chrome OS. Even Google's new operating system will have to run something locally.
Microsoft's CEO is right to be perplexed about Google bringing to market two operating systems: "The last time I checked, you don't need two client operating systems. We tried it before -- Windows 95 and Windows NT. It's good to have one. So I can't, I don't really don't know what's up at Google." Nor do I. Android or Chrome OS should be enough. Not both.
That said, Chrome OS, or something like it, is an idea whose time has come. Netscape wanted to bring a Web-based OS to market in the late 1990s. It wasn't the right time, Microsoft outmaneuvered Netscape with Internet Explorer and Internet Information Server bundling and Netscape wasn't the right company. By comparison, the time is right, Microsoft's responsiveness is hampered by European and US antitrust oversight and Google is the right company. Or Apple.
Web 1.0 and Web 2.0 were about the PC. Web 3.0 is about the mobile device and the cloud. In a future post, I'll explain the major factors that make Web 3.0 about the mobile device-to-cloud applications stack. Two for now: Ubiquitous and fast Internet connectivity; search utility and potential third-party profitability.
Wrapping up, Steve Ballmer's emphasis on customers shouldn't be a liability, but it is for Microsoft. Innovation isn't about listening to what customers want, but giving them something they didn't realize they needed. This is the fundamental difference between how Apple and Microsoft develop new products. Microsoft caters to enterprises and their fickle and risk-adverse behavior. That's good for Office, Windows and Microsoft server products today. Tomorrow is an idea whose time already is passing.
perhaps, with the wide spread use of cell phones, blackberries, netbooks, etc, a revolution has begun and microsoft is in denial.
what seems to have taken place is to define a new market place which I would call the "mobile market".
unlike the home, home office and business market places, the "mobile market" has clearly redefined the a new set of demands and requirements.
case and point: what many people had needed to do on stand alone computers for many years in the past, are now able to do it via there mobile devices "and" has drastically reduce the overall time that people would otherwise spend on a windows pc.
Microsoft will kick itself in the butt again, if they don't take the future seriously. Sure, they have provided a door in windows to connect mobile devices. But this attempt is a pitiful one.
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|Web apps, Web OS, blah blah blah.
Heard it all before.
Ten years ago.
Still don't see any graveyards.
Don't expect to either.
Kind of like the "coming Linux ascendancy" myth.
Much hype.
No substance.
Been in this business and seen the "ebb and flow" too long to believe the BS.
Media needs something to flog.
**YAWN**
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|"Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer can deny it. He can march his Office 2010 and Windows 7 armies into the enterprise. But, elsewhere, the Web platform is turning from idea to practical reality -- in large part because of mobile handsets."
I read article and to tell you the truth I think it couldn't be farther from the truth.
Let me put it simple. If there is anything that Microsoft knows is that it's OS as a relevant piece of software will quickly fade out. You just need to look at Microsoft tools and strategies to see this. They're putting a big effort in moving application in the cloud. They're OS is shapping into a cloud oriented OS. Why do you think Microsoft is removing applications like gallerty from Windows 7 for instance. Or why is Microsoft making huge investments in live services like Office Online, the Azure platform, Xbox Live. Why do you think they made such a huge investment in smooth streaming.
Microsoft is indeed one of the most prominent players regarding web applications.
The question is who is better prepared. Is it Google?
Well perhaps Google has some advantages in terms of some particular services but lets just look at the scope of tools at Microsoft disposal.
Online gaming tools such as Xbox Live, lots of presence in media appliances, Pocket PCs that even if Apple stole the crowd with the iPhone don't expect Microsoft to stay behind for long.
When I like at Microsoft projects like "Project Natal" one question comes popping straight into my head.
I know one day we will do everything from anywhere despite the underlying plantform. Be it checking email on my TV screen the PDA or whatever. The question is what tools will I be using. And when I look at the players today it is pretty much like this.
There is this guy that is extremely good at this. And this other that does this really well too. And then theres this big guy that gots pretty much all bases covered.
Thats what the competition needs to be aware off. Microsoft goal is a long term one, and they know the company that wins is the one that provides the most array of quality services in a "PACKAGE". The Live package in Microsoft case.
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|It sure is nice to see after I left that the policies regarding opinion articles have become so lax that BN now allows rants to be posted on the site as opinion articles. Joe, as a former analyst on Microsoft, your recent writings for eWeek and now here have confused me greatly. The pieces on Microsoft Monitor used to be informative, well thought out, and hard to argue with. Since then, all but 10-15% of your work is now anti-Microsoft, sometimes to the point where there appears to be some bias.
Like others, I fail to see how you made the case here for Google and Chrome OS vis a vis Microsoft. Way too much time was spent going after Mr. Ballmer, and far too little on that comparison, which should be the focus of the piece.
Joe, you can do better than this.
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|Boy, I guess this is where all the Microsoft employees hang out. I think the key s*** here is the precipitous drop in notebook prices. With ARM based netbooks coming in under $300, either we will see a sharp drop in the price of Windows (and hence MS revenue and stock price) or we will see lower priced operating systems take over. Most people don't require much anymore. Young people don't install software, they find useful web sites. All this rich desktop application stuff will join the IBM mainframe, making the company lots of money, but not really being in the forefront of high tech anymore.
I look forward to having a good $200 netbook with a good browser like Chrome, several day battery life and a reasonable screen.
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|"With ARM based netbooks coming in under $300, either we will see a sharp drop in the price of Windows (and hence MS revenue and stock price) or we will see lower priced operating systems take over.
AspireOne:$257. With Windows.
"Young people don't install software, they find useful web sites."
Heh... Wow. Can't say I've actually seen anyone offer that opinion before. I'll have to mull that one over a bit. I think it's more a little of both...
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|You know, I can go almost anywhere to get anti-MS drivel.
An OS is not search.
Search is not an OS.
Neither company is good at the others core business.
And I pray that Google does not get established on the desktop. Geez, all the whiners that were up in arms about MS Updates are in a rush to put all their data onto Google's datafarm.
Having been around for awhile, the 'loud' is another name for client/server. It failed then, it'll fail now.
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|lol Joe Wilcox, you are not an average consumer or PC user, i really don't think you should be comparing your own habits to what Steve Ballmer said ....
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|Let's get real for a moment if that is even possible.
Another Linux based OS (ChromeOS) isn't going to be downing the Windows juggernaut anytime soon - I don't care who's name is on it. Apple has had an arguably superior consumer OS for some time now and a brand name recognized far and above Google in the consumer circle. Yet still they struggle for significant market share. ... yalk yalk Apple hardware's expensive etc. etc. ~rolls eyes~
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|Whether you like it or not, the real corporate world uses Windows and Office. Until these so-called nirvana web operating systems can manage to completely compete with both, people who actually want to get work done will bypass them for the conceptual toys they are. The situation might change over time, but biased, Google/Apple fanboy editorials on what I used to count on as a reliable, neutral news source aren't going to change a thing-- except whether or not I continue to read Betanews.
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|Whether you like it or not, better than half the workforce doesn't work in the real corporate world. Don't worry, we'll look at all of the new and exciting opportunities, and let the cream rise to the top. The decision will be much easier for you when you finally see what you are missing. Remember this: We are at the beginning of the Information Age, and the changes are going to continue to come at an accelerated rate. The slowdown won't occur until after we are both dead.
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|Microsoft has rarely been an innovator, but they have been highly successful at improving upon the ideas of others. Ballmer clearly has to defend status quo. Meantime, if web-enabled applications really are successful, then Microsoft will probably capitalize on Windows Server, SQL Server and IIS to position Microsoft as the best platform for creating web-based applications.
Put another way: much of the success of Microsoft comes from being the standard platform for corporate computing. If they can migrate the corporate IT developers to a Web platform, Microsoft still succeeds.
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|ChromeOS will create a HUGE market opportunity for destop app alternatives. If incumbent desktop app vendors are smart, they will quickly develop & offer online versions of their apps, in time for the official ChromeOS launch. If they don't, incumbents will open the door for new products to win the hearts & minds of a new generation of web OS users.
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|Hopefully this anti-ms bias Wilcox demonstrates isn't spreading to other betanews writers. I look for good solid tech news from all corners, Apple, Microsoft, Google, so forth. I have no interest in reading garbage from OS cultists who are hell bent against the competition.
Hah I see the thumbs down has already begun! Lash out then good sir!
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|No worries, JC; I still loathe all OSes equally. And I am by definition not equipped to become a fanboi :-D .
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|I'll repeat what I've said elsewhere, and what I've been authorized to say by the editor-in-chief: Joe Wilcox's viewpoints are his own, and do not reflect the opinions of Betanews as a whole or necessarily any others among us. I'll add this: During Joe's career as an analyst, I've relied on him on numerous occasions for his viewpoints and pointed opinions, knowing full well along the way that he and I don't see eye-to-eye on many issues. But that wasn't the point, to do like Keith Olbermann and gather together in the same place only folks who agree with me.
My staff and I will continue to present reasoned opinions and viewpoints in the fields we cover, that carefully weigh all sides of an issue, and that present our analysis of how the events in information technology affect businesses and consumers. In the end, I believe that objective is much more important than whether one of us likes Google or Microsoft best, or Firefox or Safari best -- although those preferences may come out from time to time. If all we're doing is revealing our personal preferences rather than explaining the state of affairs as it affects you, then we're not doing our job.
-Scott Fulton, Managing Editor, Betanews
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|I respect what you are saying, and have thus far thoroughly enjoyed betanews and appreciate the ability to respond to articles via comments.
That being said...I find it very difficult to see how the article does its readers a service by presenting a point in a fair and straightforward manner. At the least, I was hoping to find out why Google's offering is going to be so much better for those of us who use Windows on a daily basis. Perhaps I missed it, but I am still mystified.
I didn't see different sides of the issue, or how these things would affect me as a Windows user. It just seemed to be a rant.
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|it is a rant as nothing is known about ChromeOS at this point, other than it relies on the web, oh wait holy crap i'm on the interconnected pipes as we speak wth!
Joe Wilcox would be better suited at TechCrunch in my view
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|Mr. Wilcox,
Having looked at all of your recent posts, it seems obvious to me that you may be a Google/Apple fan boy and/or anti MS. And while I'm sure your "cloudy" opinions may hold true for some, they sure as hell don't apply to the many. I guess that's the reason other BetaNews writers disagree with you.
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|When something says "viewpoint", it is usually someone's individual interpretation and opinions. Just because you don't agree, doesn't make them a Google or Apple shill. It means they aren't an MS fanboy and are taking a critical look at MS's actions and the market.
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|Did anyone notice that this site has been hacked? I thought I was going to betanews, and must have been redirected to an Apple news site, maybe www.MicrosoftIsTheGreatSatan.com or something.
It's nothing like a professional news site that at least tries to make the appearance of being unbiased. Can anyone fix the link?
And Steve Jobs appears to be using an alias of Joe Wilcox.
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|" giving them something they didn't realize they needed. "
Oh, how many times did i realize that i wasn't getting exactly what i had paid for
and then came to realize that I actually paid for and received a bad product, ie, P.I.A..
sometimes, innovation is a good idea until accountants get involved.
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